QBit Ledger: Pre-Registered Analysis Plan for a Survival Analysis of Quantum-Advantage Claims, 2018–2026
Barry Wade Lovell
This registration freezes the complete analysis plan for a retrospective survival analysis of 25 experiment-level quantum-advantage claims (2018–2026) and the prospective survival-prior protocol of the QBit Ledger registry (CognitionHive). The frozen plan — PREREGISTRATION_v0_2.md, marked FROZEN v1.0 on 2026-08-27 — has SHA-256 d28f7ec6b6d988d9aa4277e9186a58c7150818a0b3f1c16d48957e5e43af8d73. The plan binds to a frozen claims corpus (data/claims.jsonl, SHA-256 478e4c64d1f7e80cae31529b6ba11a6b8e2fc0a42eef44620e92c01a7e5ce769, N=25) and a frozen candidate-event universe, and fixes: two closure definitions (executed-closure; any-mechanism), dual time origins, all estimators, a 2-degree-of-freedom covariate budget, a closed list of seven sensitivity analyses, frozen outcome sentences, and an append-only deviations policy. Event coding and estimation occur only after this freeze; the same hash is independently anchored via OpenTimestamps. Full plan text accompanies the resulting paper.
•Aug 28, 2026•0 citations