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Quantum algorithm for stochastic optimal stopping problems

João Fernando Doriguello, Alessandro Luongo, Jinge Bao, Patrick Rebentrost, Miklós Sántha

Published Jan 1, 2021• 0 citations
OpenAlex

Abstract

The famous least squares Monte Carlo (LSM) algorithm combines linear least square regression with Monte Carlo simulation to approximately solve problems in stochastic optimal stopping theory. In this work, we propose a quantum LSM based on quantum access to a stochastic process, on quantum circuits for computing the optimal stopping times, and on quantum Monte Carlo techniques. For this algorithm we elucidate the intricate interplay of function approximation and quantum Monte Carlo algorithms. Our algorithm achieves a nearly quadratic speedup in the runtime compared to the LSM algorithm under some mild assumptions. Specifically, our quantum algorithm can be applied to American option pricing and we analyze a case study for the common situation of Brownian motion and geometric Brownian motion processes.

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The famous least squares Monte Carlo (LSM) algorithm combines linear least square regression with Monte Carlo simulation to approximately solve problems in stochastic optimal stopping theory. In this work, we propose a quantum LSM based on quantum access to a stochastic process, on quantum circuits for computing the optimal stopping times, and on quantum Monte Carlo techniques. For this algorithm we elucidate the intricate interplay of function approximation and quantum Monte Carlo algorithms. Our algorithm achieves a nearly quadratic speedup in the runtime compared to the LSM algorithm under some mild assumptions. Specifically, our quantum algorithm can be applied to American option pricing and we analyze a case study for the common situation of Brownian motion and geometric Brownian motion processes.
The famous least squares Monte Carlo (LSM) algorithm combines linear least square regression with Monte Carlo simulation to approximately solve problems in stochastic optimal stopping theory. In this work, we propose a quantum LSM based on quantum access to a stochastic process, on quantum circuits for computing the optimal stopping times, and on quantum techniques for Monte Carlo. For this algorithm, we elucidate the intricate interplay of function approximation and quantum algorithms for Monte Carlo. Our algorithm achieves a nearly quadratic speedup in the runtime compared to the LSM algorithm under some mild assumptions. Specifically, our quantum algorithm can be applied to American option pricing and we analyze a case study for the common situation of Brownian motion and geometric Brownian motion processes.
In this paper, we introduce a novel Quantum Least-Squares Monte Carlo (QLSM) algorithm for solving backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs). The QLSM algorithm leverages quantum computing to enhance the efficiency of traditional least-squares Monte Carlo methods. We present the detailed procedure of the QLSM method and an evaluation of its accuracy and computational cost. This approach has significant potential for applications in mathematical finance, particularly in pricing complex financial derivatives and risk management.
Stochastic processes play a fundamental role in physics, mathematics, engineering and finance. One potential application of quantum computation is to better approximate properties of stochastic processes. For example, quantum algorithms for Monte Carlo estimation combine a quantum simulation of a stochastic process with amplitude estimation to improve mean estimation. In this work we study quantum algorithms for simulating stochastic processes which are compatible with Monte Carlo methods. We introduce a new ``analog'' quantum representation of stochastic processes, in which the value of the process at time t is stored in the amplitude of the quantum state, enabling an exponentially efficient encoding of process trajectories. We show that this representation allows for highly efficient quantum algorithms for simulating certain stochastic processes, using spectral properties of these processes combined with the quantum Fourier transform. In particular, we show that we can simulate TTT timesteps of fractional Brownian motion using a quantum circuit with gate complexity polylog(T)\text{polylog}(T)polylog(T), which coherently prepares the superposition over Brownian paths. We then show this can be combined with quantum mean estimation to create end to end algorithms for estimating certain time averages over processes in time O(polylog(T)ε−c)O(\text{polylog}(T)ε^{-c})O(polylog(T)ε−c) where $3/2
The valuation of American options and the determination of optimal stopping times remain central challenges in option pricing theory and derivatives valuation. Classical approaches to multidimensional problems rely on the dynamic programming principle, which is notoriously difficult to parallelize. Moreover, the need to store continuation values for all simulated paths in each dynamic programming step imposes severe memory constraints on classical computers, limiting the scale of feasible simulations. Quantum computing offers a promising way to address these limitations. In this paper, the authors introduce a novel algorithm for pricing American options on quantum hardware. To date, only one method has been proposed for this purpose. The authors' approach combines the Quantum Binomial Tree with Quantum Machine Learning to enable direct valuation of American options on a quantum computer. By incorporating quantum amplitude estimation, it could achieve a quadratic speed-up over classical Monte Carlo methods. Furthermore, it exploits the exponential growth of the quantum state vector, overcoming the memory bottlenecks that restrict classical approaches.
Quantum random walks are the natural counterpart of the classical random walk, arising when quantum effects are taken into consideration. Many Monte Carlo methods use the classical Brownian motion as a building block. Although it appears naturally in various problems of computational physics, it is also used extensively in the stochastic models used for pricing of financial assets. When quantum random walks are used instead, more complex behaviors can be observed. However, the simulation of a quantum random walk requires more computational resources. By using low-discrepancy sequences instead of pseudorandom numbers, one may hope to decrease the statistical error of the simulation. Another approach for improved efficiency is to use the power of computational accelerators, which are suitable for problems, where a well-ordered sequence of computations is to be performed repeatedly. In our work we concentrated on using GPGPU computing in order to speed-up the operations involved in the generation of the low-discrepancy sequence as well as the subsequent sampling of the quantum random walks. In this work we explain our sampling algorithm and demonstrate its efficiency on model problems from the domain of option pricing.
Abstract Quantum computers have the potential to provide quadratic speedup for Monte Carlo methods currently used in various classical applications. In this work, we examine the advantage of quantum computers for financial option pricing with the Monte Carlo method. Systematic and statistical errors are handled in a joint framework, and a relationship to quantum gate error is established. New metrics are introduced for the assessment of quantum advantage based on sample count and optimized error handling. We implement and analyze a Fourier series based approach and demonstrate its benefit over the more traditional rescaling method in function approximation. Our numerical calculations reveal the unpredictable nature of systematic errors, making consistent quantum advantage difficult with current quantum hardware. Our results indicate that very low noise levels, a two-qubit gate error rate below 10−6, are necessary for the quantum method to outperform the classical one, but a low number of logical qubits (ca. 20) may be sufficient to see quantum advantage already.