This chapter uses scenario analysis to seed a policy discussion for quantum technologies. We envision four likely outcomes of the quantum technology race, and these different visions provide motivation for contemplating the strategic, political, and social dimensions of quantum technologies.
In this chapter we present our recommendations for how the policy landscape in the U.S. and other liberal democracies should respond to the opportunities and challenges brought on by quantum information science. These recommendations are informed by the four scenarios of quantum futures combined with the understanding of technology capabilities we discussed in Part I. We begin this chapter by putting our cards on the table and presenting our policy goals. We then explore how to achieve these goals using traditional policy levers: direct investments, education, and law. We conclude with a discussion of national security issues.
Quantum sensing, computing, and communication offer some significant improvements on classical technologies, in some cases create fundamentally new capabilities. Quantum technologies are quickly arriving. Even if the most hyped promises in quantum computing are not realized in the next decade, in the near term quantum sensing could shift relationships irrevocably. This book has painted the landscape of quantum's implications---from nation-state concerns of strategic conflict, intelligence gathering, and law enforcement activities; to the concerns of companies that may be subject to industrial policy priorities and restrictions; to the level of the individual who may face institutions with great asymmetries in sensing and sense-making power. This chapter concludes with a forecast of quantum technology scenarios, with forecasts for each quantum technology analyzed in this book, and with a summary of the most important policy issues to pursue.
This report describes a survey of opinions in relevant technology communities regarding the best options for research and development of quantum computing, the likely impact on various sectors, and the expected timescales. The survey is intended to contribute to the preparatory discussions for the quantum technology Future and Emerging Technology (FET) Flagship, planned for 2020-30. The overall view of the participants on the technological perspectives for quantum computing is positive and it is seen as likely to be benign.