Recently quantum probability theory started to be actively used in studies of human decision-making, in particular for the resolution of paradoxes (such as the Allais, Ellsberg, and Machina paradoxes). Previous studies were based on a cognitive metaphor of the quantum double-slit experiment - the basic quantum interference experiment. In this paper, we report on an economics experiment based on a three-slit experiment design, where the slits are menus of alternatives from which one can choose. The test of nonclassicality is based on the Sorkin equality (which was only recently tested in quantum physics). Each alternative is a voucher to buy products in one or more stores. The alternatives are obtained from all disjunctions including one, two or three stores. The participants have to reveal the amount for which they are willing to sell the chosen voucher. Interference terms are computed by comparing the willingness to sell a voucher built as a disjunction of stores and the willingness to sell the vouchers corresponding to the singleton stores. These willingness to sell amounts are used to estimate probabilities and to test both the law of total probabilities and the Born Rule. Results reject neither classical nor quantum probability. We discuss this initial experiment and our results and provide guidelines for future studies.
Recently quantum probability theory started to be actively used in studies of human decision-making, in particular for the resolution of paradoxes (such as the Allais, Ellsberg, and Machina paradoxes). Previous studies were based on a cognitive metaphor of the quantum double-slit experiment - the basic quantum interference experiment. In this paper, we report on an economics experiment based on a three-slit experiment design, where the slits are menus of alternatives from which one can choose. The test of nonclassicality is based on the Sorkin equality (which was only recently tested in quantum physics). Each alternative is a voucher to buy products in one or more stores. The alternatives are obtained from all disjunctions including one, two or three stores. The participants have to reveal the amount for which they are willing to sell the chosen voucher. Interference terms are computed by comparing the willingness to sell a voucher built as a disjunction of stores and the willingness to sell the vouchers corresponding to the singleton stores. These willingness to sell amounts are used to estimate probabilities and to test both the law of total probabilities and the Born Rule. Results reject neither classical nor quantum probability. We discuss this initial experiment and our results and provide guidelines for future studies.
Recently the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics, especially methods of quantum probability theory, started to be widely used in a variety of applications outside of physics, e.g., cognition and psychology as well as economy and finances. To distinguish such models from genuine quantum physical models, they often called quantum-like (although often people simply speak about, e.g., "quantum cognition"). These novel applications generate a number of foundational questions. Nowadays we can speak about a new science - foundations of quantum-like modeling. At the first stage this science was mainly about comparison of classical and quantum models, mainly in the probabilistic setting. It was found that statistical data from cognitive psychology violate some basic constraints posed on data by classical probability theory (Kolmogorov, 1933); in particular, the constraints given by the formula of total probability and Bell's type inequalities. Recently another question attracted some attention. In spite of real success in applications, there are no reason to believe that the quantum probability would cover completely all problems of, e.g., cognition. May be more general probability models have to be explored. A similar problem attracted a lot of attention in foundations of quantum physics culminating in a series of experiments to check Sorkin's equality for the triple-slit experiment by Weihs' group. In this note we present a similar test in the cognitive experimental setting. Performance of this test would either give further confirmation of the adequacy of the quantum probability model to cognitive applications or rejection of the conventional quantum model. Thus this note opens the door for a series of exciting experimental tests for the quantum-like model of cognition.
In Mod. Phys. Lett. A 9, 3119 (1994), one of us (R.D.S) investigated a formulation of quantum mechanics as a generalized measure theory. Quantum mechanics computes probabilities from the absolute squares of complex amplitudes, and the resulting interference violates the (Kolmogorov) sum rule expressing the additivity of probabilities of mutually exclusive events. However, there is a higher order sum rule that quantum mechanics does obey, involving the probabilities of three mutually exclusive possibilities. We could imagine a yet more general theory by assuming that it violates the next higher sum rule. In this paper, we report results from an ongoing experiment that sets out to test the validity of this second sum rule by measuring the interference patterns produced by three slits and all the possible combinations of those slits being open or closed. We use attenuated laser light combined with single photon counting to confirm the particle character of the measured light.
This paper is based on work published in [1]. It describes a triple slit experiment using single photons that has been used to provide a bound on one of the most fundamental axioms of quantum mechanics i.e. Born’s rule for probabilities [2]. In spite of being one of the most successful theories which describes various natural phenomena, quantum mechanics has enough intricacies and “weirdness” associated with it which makes many physicists believe that it may not be the final theory and hints towards the possibility of more generalized versions. Quantum interference as shown by a double slit diffraction experiment only occurs from pairs of paths. Even in multi‐slit versions, interference can only occur between pairs of possibilities and increasing the number of slits does not increase the complexity of the theory that still remains second‐order. However, more generalized versions of quantum mechanics may allow for multi‐path i.e. higher than second order interference. This experiment also provides a bound on the magnitude of such higher order interference. We have been able to bound the magnitude of three‐path interference to less than 10−2 of the expected two‐path interference, thus ruling out third and higher order interference and providing a bound on the accuracy of Born’s rule.
We present a new experiment demonstrating destructive interference in customers' estimates of conditional probabilities of product failure. We take the perspective of a manufacturer of consumer products and consider two situations of cause and effect. Whereas, individually, the effect of the causes is similar, it is observed that when combined, the two causes produce the opposite effect. Such negative interference of two or more product features may be exploited for better modeling of the cognitive processes taking place in customers' minds. Doing so can enhance the likelihood that a manufacturer will be able to design a better product, or a feature within it. Quantum probability has been used to explain some commonly observed "non-classical" effects, such as the disjunction effect, question order effect, violation of the sure-thing principle, and the Machina and Ellsberg paradoxes. In this work, we present results from a survey on the impact of multiple observed symptoms on the drivability of a vehicle. The symptoms are assumed to be conditionally independent. We demonstrate that the response statistics cannot be directly explained using classical probability, but quantum formulation easily models it, as it allows for both positive and negative "interference" between events. Since quantum formalism also accounts for classical probability's predictions, it serves as a richer paradigm for modeling decision making behavior in engineering design and behavioral economics.
Recent work in cognitive psychology has revealed that quantum probability theory provides another method of computing probabilities without falling into the restrictions that classical probability has in regard to modeling cognitive systems and decision-making. This enables the explanation of paradoxical scenarios that are difficult, or even impossible, to explain through classical probability theory. In this work, we perform an overview of the most important quantum models in the literature that are used to make predictions under scenarios where the Sure Thing Principle is being violated (the Quantum-Like Approach, the Quantum Dynamical Model, the Quantum Prospect Theory and Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks). We evaluated these models in terms of three metrics: interference effects, parameter tuning and scalability. The first examines if the analyzed model makes use of any type of quantum interference to explain human decision-making. The second is concerned with the assignment of values to a large number of quantum parameters. The last one consists of analyzing the ability of the models to be extended and generalized to more complex scenarios. We also studied the growth of the quantum parameters when the complexity and the levels of uncertainty of the decision scenario increase. Finally, we compared these quantum models with traditional classical models from the literature. We conclude with a discussion of the manner in which the models addressed in this paper can only deal with very small decision problems and why they do not scale well to larger, more complex decision scenarios.
The disjunction effect in human decision making is often taken to show that the classical law of total probability is violated, motivating quantum-like models. We re-examine this claim for the Prisoner's Dilemma disjunction effect. Under the mental-event reading of the opponent-choice events, the conventional classical decision-process model implicitly builds in a certainty-only premise: its standard partition assumptions leave no room for ambiguity, forcing every participant to be certain that the opponent will defect or will cooperate. We relax this by introducing a new classical model in which each participant carries a continuous expectation parameter representing the anticipated likelihood of opponent defection, and the participant pool is partitioned by expectation level; the resulting ambiguity set is precisely the union of the interior expectation bins. In contrast, under the quantum-like event semantics, ambiguous pure states are generic (dense and of full unitarily invariant measure on the unit sphere), so "certainty states" are mathematically exceptional. We prove that an instance of our classical model can realize any empirically observed triple of defection rates across the three information conditions, including strong disjunction-effect patterns, while strictly obeying the classical law of total probability. We further prove that for any such triple produced by a standard quantum-like model of the same experiment, there exists a classical instance reproducing it exactly. In this sense, classical and quantum-like approaches have the same observable-rate expressiveness; their substantive difference lies in how ambiguity is represented and in their respective event semantics, not in a breakdown of classical probability.