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Quantum Restriction of Moore's Law

J. R. Powell

Published Jun 1, 2009• 0 citations
OpenAlex

Abstract

In 1965, Gordon Moore, one of the founders of Intel, based on practical observations suggested that the number of transistors on a chip will continue to double roughly every 24 months. This forecast is called "Moore's Law," which is familiar to those skilled in the field of microelectronics. After 40 years, the law continues to operate despite the beginning as far back as the 1980s, attempts to challenge the forecast made. In the published translation of an article from the journal "Proceedings of the IEEE" (N 8, Vol. 96, 2008) it is indicated the time limit of this law, which results from the unquestionable principles of quantum mechanics.

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•Jan 1, 2016•0 citations
In 1965, Gordon Moore, one of the founders of Intel, based on practical observations suggested that the number of transistors on a chip will continue to double roughly every 24 months. This forecast is called "Moore's Law," which is familiar to those skilled in the field of microelectronics. After 40 years, the law continues to operate despite the beginning as far back as the 1980s, attempts to challenge the forecast made. In the published translation of an article from the journal "Proceedings of the IEEE" (N 8, Vol. 96, 2008) it is indicated the time limit of this law, which results from the unquestionable principles of quantum mechanics.
Quantum Technologies and European Flagship Elisabeth Elisabeth Giacobino Giacobino Laboratoire Kastler Brossel Ecole Normale Superieure, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique College de France Paris, France Fifty years ago: the invention of the laser Integrated circuit (Intel) It can contain billions of transitors Replica of the first transistor invented at Bell Labs in 1947 Seventy years ago: the invention of the transistor Moore’s law Gordon Moore, the co-founder of Intel, predicted in 1965 that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit would double approximately every two years The minimal size of a transistor section is presently about 14nm, corresponding to about 50 atoms Classical Regime Quantum Regime 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1990 104 103 102 101 1 0.1 Year Electrons / device The future is quantum Moore’s law: the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit has doubled approximately every two years Eventually the quantum wall will be hit  push back the hitting time (more Moore)  change completely the technology (more than Moore)  and quantum technologies for green
In some ways, the roots of interest in quantum computing date back to a 1965 observation by Gordon Moore, the co-founder of Intel. Moore’s law, as it came to be known, is a popular rule-of-thumb for computing development. Work on quantum algorithms accelerated in the 1990s with discoveries made by Deutsch, Josza and Simon. In particular, the 1994 publication of Shor’s algorithm prompted a huge uptake of interest. Using Shor’s process, a quantum computer would be able to decompose any integer into its prime factors much more rapidly than a classical computer. Some of the foundational concepts of quantum computing have been set up in analogy with counterparts in the digital regime. This allows us to view quantum theory from a different, more informational, perspective, without altering the formalism in any extensive way. In any case, Google’s calculation was effectively checking the output of a quantum random number generator, which has limited practical application.
Q uantum mechanics has had an enormous technological and societal impact.To grasp this point, it is sufficient to cite the invention of the transistor, perhaps the most remarkable among the countless other applications of quantum mechanics.It is also easy to see the enormous impact of computers on everyday life.The importance of computers is such that it is appropriate to say that we are now living in the information age.This information revolution became possible thanks to the invention of the tran sistor, that is, thanks to the synergy between computer science and quantum physics.Today this synergy offers completely new opportunities and promises exciting advances in both funda mental science and technological application.We are referring here to the fact that quantum mechanics can be used to process and transmit information [1,2].Miniaturization provides us with an intuitive way of under standing why, in the near future, quantum laws will become important for computation.The electronics industry for com puters grows hand-in-hand with the decrease in size of integrated circuits.This miniaturization is necessary to increase computa tional power, that is, the number of floating-point operations per second (flops) a computer can perform.In the 1950's, electronic computers based on vacuum-tube technology were capable of performing approximately 103 floating-point operations per second, while nowadays there exist supercomputers whose power is greater than lOteraflops (1013 flops).As we have remarked, this enormous growth of computational power has been made possi ble owing to progress in m in ia tu riz a tio n , w hich m ay be quantified empirically in Moore's law.This law is the result of a remarkable observation made by Gordon Moore in 1965: the number of transistors on a single integrated-circuit chip doubles approximately every 18 24 months.This exponential growth has not yet saturated and Moore's law is still valid.At the present time the limit is approximately 108 transistors per chip and the typical size of circuit components is of the order of 100 nanometres.Extrapolating Moore's law, one would estimate that around the year 2020 we shall reach the atomic size for storing a single bit of inform atio n .At th a t p o in t, q u a n tu m effects will becom e unavoidably dominant.One should be aware that, besides quantum effects, other fac tors could bring Moore's law to an end.In the first place, there are economic considerations.Indeed, the cost of building fabri cation facilities to m an u factu re chips has also increased exponentially with time.Nevertheless, it is important to under stand the ultimate limitations set by quantum mechanics.Even though we might overcome economic barriers by means of tech nological breakthroughs, quantum physics sets fundamental limitations on the size of the circuit components.The first ques tion under debate is whether it would be more convenient to push References
Are we getting to the end of Moore's law????? Moore's law which is held for 50 years tells computer power doubling every 18 months may begin to expire in the next 10 or so years. Imagine you buy a computer having the same power as the last year and the year before last year. Would you buy a new computer? Or upgrade? The present computer model is CPU with I/O's and combination of logical gates, and software which controls these I/O's based on finite automata and Turing machine. Basically the above hard-ware software model manipulates the 0 and 1 bits.