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Fine-grained analysis and improved robustness of quantum supremacy for random circuit sampling

Y. Kondo, Ryuhei Mori, Ramis Movassagh

Published Feb 3, 2021• 5 citations
OpenAlex

Abstract

We prove under the complexity theoretical assumption of the non-collapse of the polynomial hierarchy that estimating the output probabilities of random quantum circuits to within $\exp(-\Omega(m\log m))$ additive error is hard for any classical computer, where $m$ is the number of gates in the quantum computation. More precisely, we show that the above problem is $\#\mathsf{P}$-hard under $\mathsf{BPP}^{\mathsf{NP}}$ reduction. In the recent experiments, the quantum circuit has $n-$qubits and the architecture is a two-dimensional grid of size $\sqrt{n}\times\sqrt{n}$. Indeed for constant depth circuits estimating the output probabilities to within $2^{-\Omega(n\log{n})}$ is hard, and for circuits of depth $\sqrt{n}$, for which the anti-concentration property holds, estimating the output probabilities to within $2^{-\Omega(n^{3/2}\log n)}$ is hard. We prove these results from first principles and do not use the standard techniques such as the Berlekamp--Welch algorithm, the usual Paturi's lemma, and Rakhmanov's result.

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Improved robustness of quantum supremacy for random circuit sampling

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"Quantum Supremacy" and the Complexity of Random Circuit Sampling

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A critical milestone on the path to useful quantum computers is quantum supremacy - a demonstration of a quantum computation that is prohibitively hard for classical computers. A leading near-term candidate, put forth by the Google/UCSB team, is sampling from the probability distributions of randomly chosen quantum circuits, which we call Random Circuit Sampling (RCS). In this paper we study both the hardness and verification of RCS. While RCS was defined with experimental realization in mind, we show complexity theoretic evidence of hardness that is on par with the strongest theoretical proposals for supremacy. Specifically, we show that RCS satisfies an average-case hardness condition - computing output probabilities of typical quantum circuits is as hard as computing them in the worst-case, and therefore #P-hard. Our reduction exploits the polynomial structure in the output amplitudes of random quantum circuits, enabled by the Feynman path integral. In addition, it follows from known results that RCS satisfies an anti-concentration property, making it the first supremacy proposal with both average-case hardness and anti-concentration.

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Average-case hardness of estimating probabilities of random quantum circuits with a linear scaling in the error exponent

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We consider the hardness of computing additive approximations to output probabilities of random quantum circuits. We consider three random circuit families, namely, Haar random, $p=1$ QAOA, and random IQP circuits. Our results are as follows. For Haar random circuits with $m$ gates, we improve on prior results by showing $\mathsf{coC_=P}$ hardness of average-case additive approximations to an imprecision of $2^{-O(m)}$. Efficient classical simulation of such problems would imply the collapse of the polynomial hierarchy. For constant depth circuits i.e., when $m=O(n)$, this linear scaling in the exponent is within a constant of the scaling required to show hardness of sampling. Prior to our work, such a result was shown only for Boson Sampling in Bouland et al (2021). We also use recent results in polynomial interpolation to show $\mathsf{coC_=P}$ hardness under $\mathsf{BPP}$ reductions rather than $\mathsf{BPP}^{\mathsf{NP}}$ reductions. This improves the results of prior work for Haar random circuits both in terms of the error scaling and the power of reductions. Next, we consider random $p=1$ QAOA and IQP circuits and show that in the average-case, it is $\mathsf{coC_=P}$ hard to approximate the output probability to within an additive error of $2^{-O(n)}$. For $p=1$ QAOA circuits, this work constitutes the first average-case hardness result for the problem of approximating output probabilities for random QAOA circuits, which include Sherrington-Kirkpatrick and Erdös-Renyi graphs. For IQP circuits, a consequence of our results is that approximating the Ising partition function with imaginary couplings to an additive error of $2^{-O(n)}$ is hard even in the average-case, which extends prior work on worst-case hardness of multiplicative approximation to Ising partition functions.

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Verifiable quantum advantage in extremely low depth

Alexandru Gheorghiu

We give a sampling problem that is solvable by shallow quantum circuits, hard for polynomial-time classical algorithms under lattice-based assumptions, and efficiently verifiable by a classical computer. The quantum sampler admits two implementations: one uses log-logarithmic-depth quantum circuits with one- and two-qubit gates, i.e., $\mathsf{QNC}^0[\log\log]$ circuits, while the other uses constant-depth quantum circuits with unbounded fan-in gates, i.e., $\mathsf{QAC}^0$ circuits. Our construction can be seen as compiling the Learning with Errors (LWE)-based single-round proof of quantumness of Arabadjieva et al. (2025) to very low depth. The price paid for this compilation is the reliance on less standard, though well-motivated, assumptions: in addition to the lattice knowledge assumption used by Arabadjieva et al. (2025), we require a strengthened variant of the adaptive-hardcore-bit property of LWE, for which we provide supporting evidence. Unlike previous low-depth proofs of quantumness, the quantum computation here requires no mid-circuit measurements or feed-forward: it consists only of running a shallow circuit and sampling from its output distribution. This shows that shallow quantum circuits have sufficient structure to solve certain classically hard tasks whose solutions can be verified efficiently.

quant-pharXiv:2609.01448•Sep 2, 2026•0 citations
We prove under the complexity theoretical assumption of the non-collapse of the polynomial hierarchy that estimating the output probabilities of random quantum circuits to within exp⁡(−Ω(mlog⁡m))\exp(-\Omega(m\log m))exp(−Ω(mlogm)) additive error is hard for any classical computer, where mmm is the number of gates in the quantum computation. More precisely, we show that the above problem is #P\#\mathsf{P}#P-hard under BPPNP\mathsf{BPP}^{\mathsf{NP}}BPPNP reduction. In the recent experiments, the quantum circuit has n−n-n−qubits and the architecture is a two-dimensional grid of size n×n\sqrt{n}\times\sqrt{n}n​×n​. Indeed for constant depth circuits estimating the output probabilities to within 2−Ω(nlog⁡n)2^{-\Omega(n\log{n})}2−Ω(nlogn) is hard, and for circuits of depth n\sqrt{n}n​, for which the anti-concentration property holds, estimating the output probabilities to within 2−Ω(n3/2log⁡n)2^{-\Omega(n^{3/2}\log n)}2−Ω(n3/2logn) is hard. We prove these results from first principles and do not use the standard techniques such as the Berlekamp--Welch algorithm, the usual Paturi's lemma, and Rakhmanov's result.
Motivated by the recent experimental demonstrations of quantum supremacy, proving the hardness of the output of random quantum circuits is an imperative near term goal. We prove under the complexity theoretical assumption of the non-collapse of the polynomial hierarchy that approximating the output probabilities of random quantum circuits to within exp⁡(−Ω(mlog⁡m))\exp(-\Omega(m\log m))exp(−Ω(mlogm)) additive error is hard for any classical computer, where mmm is the number of gates in the quantum computation. More precisely, we show that the above problem is #P\#\mathsf{P}#P-hard under BPPNP\mathsf{BPP}^{\mathsf{NP}}BPPNP reduction. In the recent experiments, the quantum circuit has nnn-qubits and the architecture is a two-dimensional grid of size n×n\sqrt{n}\times\sqrt{n}n​×n​. Indeed for constant depth circuits approximating the output probabilities to within 2−Ω(nlog⁡n)2^{-\Omega(n\log{n})}2−Ω(nlogn) is hard. For circuits of depth log⁡n\log{n}logn or n\sqrt{n}n​ for which the anti-concentration property holds, approximating the output probabilities to within 2−Ω(nlog⁡2n)2^{-\Omega(n\log^2{n})}2−Ω(nlog2n) and 2−Ω(n3/2log⁡n)2^{-\Omega(n^{3/2}\log n)}2−Ω(n3/2logn) is hard respectively. We made an effort to find the best proofs and proved these results from first principles, which do not use the standard techniques such as the Berlekamp--Welch algorithm, the usual Paturi's lemma, and Rakhmanov's result.
Motivated by the recent experimental demonstrations of quantum supremacy, proving the hardness of the output of random quantum circuits is an imperative near term goal. We prove under the complexity theoretical assumption of the non-collapse of the polynomial hierarchy that approximating the output probabilities of random quantum circuits to withinexp⁡(−Ω(mlog⁡m))\exp(-\Omega(m\log m))exp(−Ω(mlogm))additive error is hard for any classical computer, wheremmmis the number of gates in the quantum computation. More precisely, we show that the above problem is #P-hard under BPPNPreduction. In the recent experiments, the quantum circuit has n-qubits and the architecture is a two-dimensional grid of sizen×n\sqrt{n}\times\sqrt{n}n​×n​[1]. Indeed for constant depth circuits approximating the output probabilities to within2−Ω(nlog⁡n)2^{-\Omega(n\log n)}2−Ω(nlogn)is hard. For circuits of depthlog⁡n\log nlognorn\sqrt{n}n​for which the anti-concentration property holds, approximating the output probabilities to within2−Ω(nlog⁡2n)2^{-\Omega(n\log^{2}n)}2−Ω(nlog2n)and2−Ω(n3/2log⁡n)2^{-\Omega(n^{3/2}\log n)}2−Ω(n3/2logn)is hard respectively. We then show that the hardness results extend to any open neighborhood of an arbitrary (fixed) circuit including the trivial circuit with identity gates. We made an effort to find the best proofs and proved these results from first principles, which do not use the standard techniques such as the Berlekamp–Welch algorithm, the usual Paturi's lemma, and Rakhmanov's result.
As Moore's law reaches its limits, quantum computers are emerging with the promise of dramatically outperforming classical computers. We have witnessed the advent of quantum processors with over 505050 quantum bits (qubits), which are expected to be beyond the reach of classical simulation. Quantum supremacy is the event at which the old Extended Church-Turing Thesis is overturned: A quantum computer performs a task that is practically impossible for any classical (super)computer. The demonstration requires both a solid theoretical guarantee and an experimental realization. The lead candidate is Random Circuit Sampling (RCS), which is the task of sampling from the output distribution of random quantum circuits. Google recently announced a 53−53-53−qubit experimental demonstration of RCS. Soon after, classical algorithms appeared that challenge the supremacy of random circuits by estimating their outputs. How hard is it to classically simulate the output of random quantum circuits? We prove that estimating the output probabilities of random quantum circuits is formidably hard (#P\#P#P-Hard) for any classical computer. This makes RCS the strongest candidate for demonstrating quantum supremacy relative to all other proposals. The robustness to the estimation error that we prove may serve as a new hardness criterion for the performance of classical algorithms. To achieve this, we introduce the Cayley path interpolation between any two gates of a quantum computation and convolve recent advances in quantum complexity and information with probability and random matrices. Furthermore, we apply algebraic geometry to generalize the well-known Berlekamp-Welch algorithm that is widely used in coding theory and cryptography. Our results imply that there is an exponential hardness barrier for the classical simulation of most quantum circuits.
A critical milestone on the path to useful quantum computers is quantum supremacy - a demonstration of a quantum computation that is prohibitively hard for classical computers. A leading near-term candidate, put forth by the Google/UCSB team, is sampling from the probability distributions of randomly chosen quantum circuits, which we call Random Circuit Sampling (RCS). In this paper we study both the hardness and verification of RCS. While RCS was defined with experimental realization in mind, we show complexity theoretic evidence of hardness that is on par with the strongest theoretical proposals for supremacy. Specifically, we show that RCS satisfies an average-case hardness condition - computing output probabilities of typical quantum circuits is as hard as computing them in the worst-case, and therefore #P-hard. Our reduction exploits the polynomial structure in the output amplitudes of random quantum circuits, enabled by the Feynman path integral. In addition, it follows from known results that RCS satisfies an anti-concentration property, making it the first supremacy proposal with both average-case hardness and anti-concentration.
We consider the hardness of computing additive approximations to output probabilities of random quantum circuits. We consider three random circuit families, namely, Haar random, p=1p=1p=1 QAOA, and random IQP circuits. Our results are as follows. For Haar random circuits with mmm gates, we improve on prior results by showing coC=P\mathsf{coC_=P}coC=​P hardness of average-case additive approximations to an imprecision of 2−O(m)2^{-O(m)}2−O(m). Efficient classical simulation of such problems would imply the collapse of the polynomial hierarchy. For constant depth circuits i.e., when m=O(n)m=O(n)m=O(n), this linear scaling in the exponent is within a constant of the scaling required to show hardness of sampling. Prior to our work, such a result was shown only for Boson Sampling in Bouland et al (2021). We also use recent results in polynomial interpolation to show coC=P\mathsf{coC_=P}coC=​P hardness under BPP\mathsf{BPP}BPP reductions rather than BPPNP\mathsf{BPP}^{\mathsf{NP}}BPPNP reductions. This improves the results of prior work for Haar random circuits both in terms of the error scaling and the power of reductions. Next, we consider random p=1p=1p=1 QAOA and IQP circuits and show that in the average-case, it is coC=P\mathsf{coC_=P}coC=​P hard to approximate the output probability to within an additive error of 2−O(n)2^{-O(n)}2−O(n). For p=1p=1p=1 QAOA circuits, this work constitutes the first average-case hardness result for the problem of approximating output probabilities for random QAOA circuits, which include Sherrington-Kirkpatrick and Erdös-Renyi graphs. For IQP circuits, a consequence of our results is that approximating the Ising partition function with imaginary couplings to an additive error of 2−O(n)2^{-O(n)}2−O(n) is hard even in the average-case, which extends prior work on worst-case hardness of multiplicative approximation to Ising partition functions.
We give a sampling problem that is solvable by shallow quantum circuits, hard for polynomial-time classical algorithms under lattice-based assumptions, and efficiently verifiable by a classical computer. The quantum sampler admits two implementations: one uses log-logarithmic-depth quantum circuits with one- and two-qubit gates, i.e., QNC0[log⁡log⁡]\mathsf{QNC}^0[\log\log]QNC0[loglog] circuits, while the other uses constant-depth quantum circuits with unbounded fan-in gates, i.e., QAC0\mathsf{QAC}^0QAC0 circuits. Our construction can be seen as compiling the Learning with Errors (LWE)-based single-round proof of quantumness of Arabadjieva et al. (2025) to very low depth. The price paid for this compilation is the reliance on less standard, though well-motivated, assumptions: in addition to the lattice knowledge assumption used by Arabadjieva et al. (2025), we require a strengthened variant of the adaptive-hardcore-bit property of LWE, for which we provide supporting evidence. Unlike previous low-depth proofs of quantumness, the quantum computation here requires no mid-circuit measurements or feed-forward: it consists only of running a shallow circuit and sampling from its output distribution. This shows that shallow quantum circuits have sufficient structure to solve certain classically hard tasks whose solutions can be verified efficiently.