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Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi

The New Stage in the US-China Rivalry: The Quantum Computer

Tural Tural Aliyev

Published Dec 1, 2020• 1 citation
OpenAlex

Abstract

This study was written to investigate the race to own fully equipped quantum computer, which is the new competition sphere in the struggle between The USA and China, and the privilege of owning quantum computers.The subject of the existing study was determined to take into consideration the few numbers of researches in this field.Although the existing study does not fully illuminate both the advantages of quantum computers and the US-China rivalry, it is important bringing more attention in the international relation literature to a quantum computer and the competitions of superpowers to own it.In this sense, in the existing two parted study, while current rivalry between the US and China is investigated in the first chapter, the potential advances of quantum computer and the race to own it is explored in the second part of article.

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This study was written to investigate the race to own fully equipped quantum computer, which is the new competition sphere in the struggle between The USA and China, and the privilege of owning quantum computers.The subject of the existing study was determined to take into consideration the few numbers of researches in this field.Although the existing study does not fully illuminate both the advantages of quantum computers and the US-China rivalry, it is important bringing more attention in the international relation literature to a quantum computer and the competitions of superpowers to own it.In this sense, in the existing two parted study, while current rivalry between the US and China is investigated in the first chapter, the potential advances of quantum computer and the race to own it is explored in the second part of article.
This article examines the intensifying strategic competition between the United States and China across three interrelated domains of quantum technology: quantum computing, quantum sensing, and quantum communications. Drawing on a qualitative comparative case-study methodology and engaging with theoretical frameworks of techno-nationalism, great-power competition, and military innovation, the article argues that quantum technologies have transcended their origins as instruments of scientific discovery and are now emerging as critical vectors of national power. Quantum capabilities hold the potential to compromise existing encryption architectures, transform battlefield intelligence and surveillance, revolutionise secure command-and-control communications, and render certain conventional deterrent postures strategically vulnerable. The article analyses the strategic investments, institutional ecosystems, and policy architectures through which both states are mobilising quantum capabilities, and it assesses the implications for military advantage, nuclear deterrence, and strategic stability. It concludes that the quantum race introduces new forms of uncertainty and instability into an already fraught great-power relationship, and that the absence of governance mechanisms or confidence-building measures in this domain represents a significant gap in international security architecture. The article contributes to the growing literature on emerging technology and strategic competition by offering a comprehensive comparative assessment of quantum power in the context of U.S.-China rivalry.
Quantum technologies are reshaping the future for international relations as they introduce communication, computing, encryption, and sensing capabilities that are unprecedented. This paper explores how the United States and China are tactically racing to dominate quantum technologies, examining how this competition influences the national security strategy of Australia, a key actor within the Indo-Pacific region. Australia is known as a middle power as well as U.S. ally. Its detailed geopolitical context is shaped by new quantum abilities and treaty duties. Grounded in policy analysis and expert literature, this study evaluates the disruptive potential of quantum advancements in global power dynamics through Realism's theoretical lens using a qualitative methodology. The paper concludes quantum technologies represent not merely scientific breakthroughs, but powerful tools of calculated advantage as they carry far-reaching implications for international security, alliances, plus the future balance of power.
The article examines the prospects and risks associated with the development of quantum technologies in the perspective of the US-China technological rivalry. In the coming decades, quantum technologies will act as a driving force for technological development, and the priority in the development and use of this innovative technology will pave the way for global technological leadership in national security, digital economy, military and defense industries. A number of future risks are predicted, among them those related to the socially fair use of quantum technologies, geopolitical and national security aspects of their use, and the need to create regulatory mechanisms (including international ones) and standards for quantum technologies. The question is raised about the current ethical initiatives of the IT and business communities to prevent the risks associated with quantum technologies in the future.
Quantum computing represents a paradigm shift in computational capability with profound implications for global technological supremacy, economic competitiveness, and national security. This comprehensive survey synthesizes the current state of quantum computing development across major powers and introduces the Quantum Strategic Competitiveness Index (QSCI) as a novel analytical framework for quantifying national quantum capabilities. Through systematic analysis of publicly available data from government reports, research publications, and policy documents, we assess quantum competitiveness across five dimensions: investment intensity, research quality, innovation output, human capital, and implementation readiness. Our analysis reveals that China leads in absolute public investment (approximately $15 billion as reported by multiple sources [11,13]), while the United States maintains superiority in research quality (34% of top-cited papers [12]) and private sector engagement (44% of global funding [12]). The European Union demonstrates strong public-academic collaboration with over €11 billion committed [14, 15]. We provide rigorous mathematical foundations of quantum computing principles, analyze recent experimental achievements including Google's Willow processor achieving below-threshold error correction [4], and examine cryptographic vulnerabilities requiring immediate post-quantum migration. Economic impact analysis with uncertainty quantification projects quantum computing generating $950
In recent years, breakthroughs in our understanding of the physical and relational properties of the subatomic universe have coincided with major increases in state funding and commercial development of quantum science and technology. Initially distinguished by high levels of international scientific cooperation, a ‘quantum race’ is heating up across multiple sectors and between major powers, who recognise that technological prowess will be a key determinant of geostrategic, as well as economic supremacy in the 21st century. Quantum is seen as a critical emerging technology in this rivalry, with the potential for full-spectrum applications in warfare, including quantum computers that enhance the capabilities of AI and machine learning, improve the performance of lethal autonomous weapons systems and increase the capacity for analysing large datasets; quantum algorithms that break classical encryption while quantum networks provide completely secure communications; and quantum sensors that provide more sensitive detection, measurement and control of the physical environment. In a densely networked, information-saturated battlespace requiring accelerated decision-making, quantum computers, communications, control and artificial intelligence (QC3AI) has the potential to further reduce the human element in future warfare.
This paper describes the current state of quantum computer development in the world (including the hype) from three perspectives and introduces our research and development of quantum computers. The first is the complex market structure. While investments in quantum computers are increasing, these investments do not always immediately bring value to consumers, and this delay results in hype. CMOS annealing technology to fill this delay is described. The second is the accountability of the impact produced by a quantum computer that does not yet exist. This paper discusses why so many people continue to question the value of quantum computers despite their clear applications, and our struggles. The third is technology development, which includes many research aspects. This paper introduces our top-down approach that takes full advantage of semiconductor technologies. Some of our activities including “Shuttling qubit” for the next milestone in the development of silicon quantum computers, which is qubit operation in a scalable qubit array structure, are also described.