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Entropy

Balanced Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks

Andreas Wichert, Catarina Moreira, Peter Bruza

Published Feb 2, 2020• 18 citations
Publisher

Abstract

Empirical findings from cognitive psychology indicate that, in scenarios under high levels of uncertainty, many people tend to make irrational decisions. To address this problem, models based on quantum probability theory, such as the quantum-like Bayesian networks, have been proposed. However, this model makes use of a Bayes normalisation factor during probabilistic inference to convert the likelihoods that result from quantum interference effects into probability values. The interpretation of this operation is not clear and leads to extremely skewed intensity waves that make the task of prediction of these irrational decisions challenging. This article proposes the law of balance, a novel mathematical formalism for probabilistic inferences in quantum-like Bayesian networks, based on the notion of balanced intensity waves. The general idea is to balance the intensity waves resulting from quantum interference in such a way that, during Bayes normalisation, they cancel each other. With this representation, we also propose the law of maximum uncertainty, which is a method to predict these paradoxes by selecting the amplitudes of the wave with the highest entropy. Empirical results show that the law of balance together with the law of maximum uncertainty were able to accurately predict different experiments from cognitive psychology showing paradoxical or irrational decisions, namely in the Prisoner's Dilemma game and the Two-Stage Gambling Game.

DOI
10.3390/e22020170

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Empirical findings from cognitive psychology indicate that, in scenarios under high levels of uncertainty, many people tend to make irrational decisions. To address this problem, models based on quantum probability theory, such as the quantum-like Bayesian networks, have been proposed. However, this model makes use of a Bayes normalisation factor during probabilistic inference to convert the likelihoods that result from quantum interference effects into probability values. The interpretation of this operation is not clear and leads to extremely skewed intensity waves that make the task of prediction of these irrational decisions challenging. This article proposes the law of balance, a novel mathematical formalism for probabilistic inferences in quantum-like Bayesian networks, based on the notion of balanced intensity waves. The general idea is to balance the intensity waves resulting from quantum interference in such a way that, during Bayes normalisation, they cancel each other. With this representation, we also propose the law of maximum uncertainty, which is a method to predict these paradoxes by selecting the amplitudes of the wave with the highest entropy. Empirical results show that the law of balance together with the law of maximum uncertainty were able to accurately predict different experiments from cognitive psychology showing paradoxical or irrational decisions, namely in the Prisoner's Dilemma game and the Two-Stage Gambling Game.
In this work, we explore an alternative quantum structure to perform quantum probabilistic inferences to accommodate the paradoxical findings of the Sure Thing Principle. We propose a Quantum-Like Bayesian Network, which consists in replacing classical probabilities by quantum probability amplitudes. However, since this approach suffers from the problem of exponential growth of quantum parameters, we also propose a similarity heuristic that automatically fits quantum parameters through vector similarities. This makes the proposed model general and predictive in contrast to the current state of the art models, which cannot be generalized for more complex decision scenarios and that only provide an explanatory nature for the observed paradoxes. In the end, the model that we propose consists in a nonparametric method for estimating inference effects from a statistical point of view. It is a statistical model that is simpler than the previous quantum dynamic and quantum-like models proposed in the literature. We tested the proposed network with several empirical data from the literature, mainly from the Prisoner's Dilemma game and the Two Stage Gambling game. The results obtained show that the proposed quantum Bayesian Network is a general method that can accommodate violations of the laws of classical probability theory and make accurate predictions regarding human decision-making in these scenarios.
Since the 70’s, researchers noticed that people do not follow the rules of probability theory while making decisions under risk.Just like quantum physics was created in order to accommodate paradoxical findings from classical physics, quantum cognition arose as a disciple with the promise of creating models that would accommodate and explain the violations found in human decision-making.In this work, we explore an alternative quantum structure to perform quantum probabilistic inferences. We propose a Quantum Probabilistic Graphical Model in order to predict human decisions under situations with high levels of uncertainty.Under the proposed network, if a node (event) is unobserved, then a particle can enter in a superposition state and produce interference effects. These effects provide some explanation in terms of cognition, since they can be seen as the feeling of confusion or ambiguity.This work also discusses the problem of creating a generalized quantum probabilistic model: the number of quantum parameters grows exponentially. We will see that for a given event, several outcomes are possible through quantum probability. A final question is posed and discussed: is it possible to find a method to assign quantum parameters in order to provide accurate predictions?
Recent work in cognitive psychology has revealed that quantum probability theory provides another method of computing probabilities without falling into the restrictions that classical probability has in regard to modeling cognitive systems and decision-making. This enables the explanation of paradoxical scenarios that are difficult, or even impossible, to explain through classical probability theory. In this work, we perform an overview of the most important quantum models in the literature that are used to make predictions under scenarios where the Sure Thing Principle is being violated (the Quantum-Like Approach, the Quantum Dynamical Model, the Quantum Prospect Theory and Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks). We evaluated these models in terms of three metrics: interference effects, parameter tuning and scalability. The first examines if the analyzed model makes use of any type of quantum interference to explain human decision-making. The second is concerned with the assignment of values to a large number of quantum parameters. The last one consists of analyzing the ability of the models to be extended and generalized to more complex scenarios. We also studied the growth of the quantum parameters when the complexity and the levels of uncertainty of the decision scenario increase. Finally, we compared these quantum models with traditional classical models from the literature. We conclude with a discussion of the manner in which the models addressed in this paper can only deal with very small decision problems and why they do not scale well to larger, more complex decision scenarios.
In cognitive psychology, some experiments of games were reported [1, 2, 3, 4], and these demonstrated that real players did not use the "rational strategy" provided by classical game theory. To discuss probabilities of such "irrational choice", recently, we proposed a decision-making model which is based on the formalism of quantum mechanics [5, 6, 7, 8]. In this paper, we briefly explain the above model and calculate the probability of irrational choice in several prisoner's dilemma (PD) games.
Free to read on publisher website We propose a new quantum Bayesian Network model in order to compute probabilistic infer¬ences in decision making scenarios. The application of a quantum paradigm to decision making generates interference effects that influence probabilistic inferences. These effects do not exist in a classical setting and constitute a major issue in the decision process, because they generate quantum parameters that highly increase with the amount of uncertainty of the problem. To automatically compute these quantum parameters, we propose a heuristic inspired by Jung’s Synchronicity principle. Synchronicity can be defined by a significant coincidence that appears be¬tween a mental state and an event occurring in the external world. It is the occurrence of meaningful, but not causally connected events. We tested our quantum Bayesian Network together with the Synchronicity inspired heuristic in empirical experiments related to categorization/decision in which the law of total probability was being violated. Results showed that the proposed quantum model was able to simulate the observed empirical findings from the experiments. We then applied our model to a more general scenario and showed the differences between classical and quantum inferences in a Lung Cancer medical diagnosis Bayesian Network.
We consider the following model of decision-making by cognitive systems. We present an algorithm -- quantum-like representation algorithm (QLRA) -- which provides a possibility to represent probabilistic data of any origin by complex probability amplitudes. Our conjecture is that cognitive systems developed the ability to use QLRA. They operate with complex probability amplitudes, mental wave functions. Since the mathematical formalism of QM describes as well (under some generalization) processing of such quantum-like (QL) mental states, the conventional quantum decision-making scheme can be used by the brain. We consider a modification of this scheme to describe decision-making in the presence of two ``incompatible'' mental variables. Such a QL decision-making can be used in situations like Prisoners Dilemma (PD) as well as others corresponding to so called disjunction effect in psychology and cognitive science.