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Quantum Theory of International Relations: Modeling Strategic Interaction with Quantum Probability Theory

Jakub Tesař

Published Sep 24, 2018• 0 citations
OpenAlex

Abstract

Recent results from cognitive psychology suggest that human behavior can be, in some situations, better described by laws known from physical quantum theory. This work responds to this development and seeks to answer the question of how quantum models of cognition and decision-making can contribute to our understanding of the social world. We introduce the approaches to the application of quantum theory in social sciences - quantum consciousness, quantum reasoning and quantum metaphor and further develop the second, in the context of strategic interaction in game theory. We show that the quantum model corresponds to both the psychological intuition and many empirically known anomalies such as the order effect, disjunction effect, or context effect. In this work, we derive a specific model of strategic interaction between two players, and we test it in the experimental Prisoner's Dilemma game. The model is based on the rational choice theory, which is nevertheless re-defined when it is shown how the strategic choice is changed if the quantum probability (C*-algebra) is used as the underlying theory instead of classical probability (σ-algebra). The results obtained support the quantum model and showed a different representation of the game among various groups of players. The quantum model of...

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Recent results from cognitive psychology suggest that human behavior can be, in some situations, better described by laws known from physical quantum theory. This work responds to this development and seeks to answer the question of how quantum models of cognition and decision-making can contribute to our understanding of the social world. We introduce the approaches to the application of quantum theory in social sciences - quantum consciousness, quantum reasoning and quantum metaphor and further develop the second, in the context of strategic interaction in game theory. We show that the quantum model corresponds to both the psychological intuition and many empirically known anomalies such as the order effect, disjunction effect, or context effect. In this work, we derive a specific model of strategic interaction between two players, and we test it in the experimental Prisoner's Dilemma game. The model is based on the rational choice theory, which is nevertheless re-defined when it is shown how the strategic choice is changed if the quantum probability (C*-algebra) is used as the underlying theory instead of classical probability (σ-algebra). The results obtained support the quantum model and showed a different representation of the game among various groups of players. The quantum model of...
In cognitive psychology, some experiments of games were reported [1, 2, 3, 4], and these demonstrated that real players did not use the "rational strategy" provided by classical game theory. To discuss probabilities of such "irrational choice", recently, we proposed a decision-making model which is based on the formalism of quantum mechanics [5, 6, 7, 8]. In this paper, we briefly explain the above model and calculate the probability of irrational choice in several prisoner's dilemma (PD) games.
The article presents a review of foreign scientific literature on the quantum-like approach to understanding the modeling of cognition and decision-making processes. It is shown that the current application of quantum physics approaches to consciousness, psychological approaches such as perception, cognition, emotions, consciousness and learning, involves the search for a single objective mathematical model of what underlies the experience of the brain. The use of quantum physics algorithms can help in understanding the mechanisms of brain malfunctions and memory impairments that are found in pathologies such as dementia caused by Alzheimer's disease, schizophrenia, etc. Quantum physics approaches are applicable to issues of modeling cognition and decision-making processes, as well as in cognitive research, information processing by the human brain, artificial intelligence development, psychology, social and political sciences. Application of the abstract mathematical principles of quantum theory can help in understanding human consciousness and behavior. Quantum probability theory is applied to modeling human behavior due to the prevalence of uncertainty in human interaction with the world. Quantum cognitive models are especially useful in research in such areas as errors in decision making, order effects of questions, conceptual combinations, accumulation of evidence, perception, etc. Of particular interest to researchers are issues of quantum-like modeling of cognition and decision-making processes, the apparatus of quantum information and probability theory, useful for such modeling, as well as the use of such apparatus in cognitive research, the development of artificial intelligence, psychology, social and political sciences.
Quantum probability theory, originally developed in the context of quantum mechanics, has increasingly been applied to social sciences to explain decision-making, cognition, and collective behavior. Unlike classical probability models, which assume pre-existing and well-defined preferences, quantum models incorporate superposition, interference, and non-commutativity to capture the contextual dependence and measurement effects observed in human decisions. This paper systematically explores the theoretical foundations of quantum probability in social sciences, discusses model construction techniques, and reviews empirical findings supporting its application. By examining case studies in quantum cognition, quantum game theory, and quantum voting, we illustrate how quantum approaches provide alternative explanations for phenomena such as order effects, measurement-induced attitude shifts, and collective polarization. The paper also discusses the methodological challenges and limitations of quantum social science, emphasizing the need for rigorous experimental validation and interdisciplinary collaboration. Finally, we highlight the potential for integrating quantum probability models with emerging technologies such as quantum computing and artificial intelligence, opening new avenues for social science research and policy applications.
We proceed towards an application of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to cognitive psychology — the problem of decision-making in games of the Prisoners Dilemma type. These games were used as tests of rationality of players. Experiments performed in cognitive psychology by Shafir and Tversky [1, 2], Croson [3], Hofstader [4, 5] demonstrated that in general real players do not use "rational strategy" provided by classical game theory; this psychological phenomenon was called the disjunction effect. We elaborate a model of quantum-like decision making which can explain this effect ("irrationality" of plays). Our model is based on quantum information theory. The main result of this paper is the derivation of Gorini-Kossakowski-Sudarshan-Lindblad equation whose equilibrium solution gives the quantum state used for decision making. It is the first application of this equation in cognitive psychology.
Of the three faculties of subjectivity, the empirical case for quantum cognition is the strongest. In the past decade a rapidly growing body of scholarship has emerged at the intersection of mathematical psychology and physics that not only models cognition in explicitly quantum terms, but has rigorously tested these models as well. While it remains to be seen how mainstream psychologists will respond, “quantum decision theory” has clearly come of age. Moreover, at the same time an almost completely independent literature has emerged on quantum game theory as well. This work is more in a purely formal vein and thus less well tested against real data, although its predictions about how people should behave in quantum games appear to conform to what experimental game theorists have found. I briefly take up quantum game theory at the end of this chapter, but my main focus will be on its decision-theoretic cousin. Quantum consciousness theory suggests that human beings are literally walking wave functions. Most quantum decision theorists would not go that far, and indeed – perhaps wary of controversy – they generally barely mention quantum consciousness, and then only to emphasize that they are making no claims about what is going on deep inside the brain (much less about consciousness), but are only interested in behavior. Instead, they have motivated their work in two other ways. First, they have highlighted the intuitive fit between quantum theory's indeterminism and the probabilistic character of human behavior. If we were founding the social sciences today and started – without metaphysical prejudice – by looking for useful models in physics, then quantum models would be a much more obvious import than classical ones. Second, quantum decision theorists have argued that their model can explain long-standing anomalies in human behavior under uncertainty. Beyond that they have remained agnostic about quantum consciousness, which makes quantum decision theory a form of what is called “weak” or “generalized” quantum theory, in which the formalism is detached from its physical basis and used simply as a tool to describe phenomena.
Classical models of decision-making under uncertainty, grounded in expected utility theory and Bayesian probability, often fail to account for systematic cognitive anomalies such as preference reversals, order effects, ambiguity aversion, and context-dependent choices. Quantum cognition models offer a novel theoretical framework that applies the mathematical principles of quantum probability—such as superposition, interference, and non-commutativity—to cognitive processes without assuming physical quantum mechanisms in the brain. By representing cognitive states as probabilistic superpositions that collapse through decision “measurements,” these models provide parsimonious explanations for violations of classical rationality. This paper examines how quantum cognition frameworks capture contextual influence, belief updating, and interference effects in uncertain decision environments. Drawing on findings from cognitive psychology and behavioral economics, the study highlights the relevance of quantum cognition for applications in economic choice modeling, legal decision analysis, and artificial intelligence. The analysis suggests that quantum probability offers a robust alternative to classical approaches when modeling human decision-making in complex, ambiguous, and context-sensitive situations.