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Science

IBM casts doubt on Google’s claims of quantum supremacy

Adrian Y. Cho

Published Sep 24, 2019• 2 citations
Publisher
DOI
10.1126/science.aaz6080

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Advanced computing technology is continuously demanding new materials, and the ultra-low temperature regime has become a point of interest in many fields, especially quantum computing. Quantum computing is an emerging field, hoping to leverage quantum mechanics to solve problems that traditional computers cannot. My Science, Technology, and Society (STS) paper examines quantum computing from an institutional level: focusing on research networks and how external pressures can influence the way discoveries are marketed. My technical project examines the low-level material science demands of quantum computing systems: where materials must perform at cryogenic –near absolute zero– temperatures. The technical project focuses on designing a system to measure thermal conductivity at low temperatures. Thermal conductivity describes the rate of heat dissipation in a material and is a key factor controlling the effectiveness of semiconductor performance in a quantum system. However, thermal conductivity is highly temperature dependent, especially near cryogenic temperatures. Further, this property’s behavior varies greatly by material. The goal of the technical project was to accurately and cost-effectively measure thermal conductivity at low temperatures through the three-omega method. To achieve this, we refurbished an existing cryopump to create a precise vacuum and include experimental components. The STS research examines a claim to “quantum supremacy” made by Google in 2019. Using Actor-Network Theory, developed by Micheal Callon and Bruno Latour, I argue that Google’s claim was the outcome of a network of research entities, funding concerns, and reputational actors, that was ultimately destabilized when IBM disproved Google’s central claims. I claim that Google failed to translate its technical success into a sociotechnical claim of “supremacy” because they failed to recruit IBM to the network before their claim. Further, Google inflated the significance of the accomplishment, leading to even greater disappointment when it was disproven. Together, these events led to a total destabilization of the network that had produced Google’s claim to quantum supremacy.

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Statistical Aspects of the Quantum Supremacy Demonstration

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In quantum computing, a demonstration of quantum supremacy (or quantum advantage) consists of presenting a task, possibly of no practical value, whose computation is feasible on a quantum device, but cannot be performed by classical computers in any feasible amount of time. The notable claim of quantum supremacy presented by Google’s team in 2019 consists of demonstrating the ability of a quantum circuit to generate, albeit with considerable noise, bitstrings from a distribution that is considered hard to simulate on classical computers. Very recently, in 2020, a quantum supremacy claim was presented by a group from the University of Science and Technology of China, using a different technology and generating a different distribution, but sharing some statistical principles with Google’s demonstration. Verifying that the generated data is indeed from the claimed distribution and assessing the circuit’s noise level and its fidelity is a statistical undertaking. The objective of this paper is to explain the relations between quantum computing and some of the statistical aspects involved in demonstrating quantum supremacy in terms that are accessible to statisticians, computer scientists, and mathematicians. Starting with the statistical modeling and analysis in Google’s demonstration, which we explain, we study various estimators of the fidelity, and different approaches to testing the distributions generated by the quantum computer. We propose different noise models, and discuss their implications. A preliminary study of the Google data, focusing mostly on circuits of 12 and 14 qubits is given in different parts of the paper.

arXiv:2008.05177•Statistical Science•Jun 22, 2022•11 citations
Advanced computing technology is continuously demanding new materials, and the ultra-low temperature regime has become a point of interest in many fields, especially quantum computing. Quantum computing is an emerging field, hoping to leverage quantum mechanics to solve problems that traditional computers cannot. My Science, Technology, and Society (STS) paper examines quantum computing from an institutional level: focusing on research networks and how external pressures can influence the way discoveries are marketed. My technical project examines the low-level material science demands of quantum computing systems: where materials must perform at cryogenic –near absolute zero– temperatures. The technical project focuses on designing a system to measure thermal conductivity at low temperatures. Thermal conductivity describes the rate of heat dissipation in a material and is a key factor controlling the effectiveness of semiconductor performance in a quantum system. However, thermal conductivity is highly temperature dependent, especially near cryogenic temperatures. Further, this property’s behavior varies greatly by material. The goal of the technical project was to accurately and cost-effectively measure thermal conductivity at low temperatures through the three-omega method. To achieve this, we refurbished an existing cryopump to create a precise vacuum and include experimental components. The STS research examines a claim to “quantum supremacy” made by Google in 2019. Using Actor-Network Theory, developed by Micheal Callon and Bruno Latour, I argue that Google’s claim was the outcome of a network of research entities, funding concerns, and reputational actors, that was ultimately destabilized when IBM disproved Google’s central claims. I claim that Google failed to translate its technical success into a sociotechnical claim of “supremacy” because they failed to recruit IBM to the network before their claim. Further, Google inflated the significance of the accomplishment, leading to even greater disappointment when it was disproven. Together, these events led to a total destabilization of the network that had produced Google’s claim to quantum supremacy.
In quantum computing, a demonstration of quantum supremacy (or quantum advantage) consists of presenting a task, possibly of no practical value, whose computation is feasible on a quantum device, but cannot be performed by classical computers in any feasible amount of time. The notable claim of quantum supremacy presented by Google’s team in 2019 consists of demonstrating the ability of a quantum circuit to generate, albeit with considerable noise, bitstrings from a distribution that is considered hard to simulate on classical computers. Very recently, in 2020, a quantum supremacy claim was presented by a group from the University of Science and Technology of China, using a different technology and generating a different distribution, but sharing some statistical principles with Google’s demonstration. Verifying that the generated data is indeed from the claimed distribution and assessing the circuit’s noise level and its fidelity is a statistical undertaking. The objective of this paper is to explain the relations between quantum computing and some of the statistical aspects involved in demonstrating quantum supremacy in terms that are accessible to statisticians, computer scientists, and mathematicians. Starting with the statistical modeling and analysis in Google’s demonstration, which we explain, we study various estimators of the fidelity, and different approaches to testing the distributions generated by the quantum computer. We propose different noise models, and discuss their implications. A preliminary study of the Google data, focusing mostly on circuits of 12 and 14 qubits is given in different parts of the paper.