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Journal of Mathematical Economics

Introduction to quantum probability theory and its economic applications

Emmanuel E. Haven, Andrei Yu. Khrennikov, Chenghu Ma, Sandro Sozzo

Published Aug 31, 2018• 11 citations
Publisher
DOI
10.1016/j.jmateco.2018.08.004

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To address the practical impasse of mainstream economics—rooted in the deterministic worldview of Newtonian mechanics—where its mechanistic and linear analytical framework struggles to handle complex scenarios in the digital economy era, such as interactive decision-making, globally non-local correlations, and systemic mutations after sudden shocks, leading to a pronounced tension between theory and practice, this paper constructs a quantum economics analytical framework. Drawing on the inherent uncertainty revealed by quantum mechanics and based on the core isomorphism between economic systems and quantum systems (both centering on uncertainty, featuring superposition of multiple states, observer-induced interaction, and holistic correlations), it translates quantum core logics like superposition, entanglement, and transition into economic analytical tools. Methods such as entanglement entropy and quantum state transition probabilities are employed to quantify the complex correlations and state transformations of economic variables. Empirical studies of China’s macroeconomy validate the framework’s effectiveness, precisely capturing structural features like the strong correlation between money supply and economic growth, transmission frictions between money and prices, and paradigm shifts under policy shocks and event impacts. It further reveals the synergistic effect of a multi-variable system (“1+1+1>3”), quantifies the transitional characteristics and transformation laws of inflation states. The findings demonstrate that quantum economics elevates “uncertainty” to the theoretical core, transcending the paradigm limitations of traditional economics. It provides a novel quantitative perspective for understanding the complex essence and structural contradictions of economic systems, offering a systematic solution to the challenges of modern economic complexity.