Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences
From axiomatics of quantum probability to modelling geological uncertainty and management of intelligent hydrocarbon reservoirs with the theory of open quantum systems
Miguel Ángel Lozada Aguilar, Andrei Yu. Khrennikov, Klaudia Oleschko L.
As was recently shown by the authors, quantum probability theory can be used for the modelling of the process of decision-making (e.g. probabilistic risk analysis) for macroscopic geophysical structures such as hydrocarbon reservoirs. This approach can be considered as a geophysical realization of Hilbert's programme on axiomatization of statistical models in physics (the famous sixth Hilbert problem). In this conceptual paper , we continue development of this approach to decision-making under uncertainty which is generated by complexity, variability, heterogeneity, anisotropy, as well as the restrictions to accessibility of subsurface structures. The belief state of a geological expert about the potential of exploring a hydrocarbon reservoir is continuously updated by outputs of measurements, and selection of mathematical models and scales of numerical simulation. These outputs can be treated as signals from the information environment E . The dynamics of the belief state can be modelled with the aid of the theory of open quantum systems: a quantum state (representing uncertainty in beliefs) is dynamically modified through coupling with E ; stabilization to a steady state determines a decision strategy. In this paper, the process of decision-making about hydrocarbon reservoirs (e.g. ‘explore or not?'; ‘open new well or not?’; ‘contaminated by water or not?’; ‘double or triple porosity medium?’) is modelled by using the Gorini–Kossakowski–Sudarshan–Lindblad equation. In our model, this equation describes the evolution of experts' predictions about a geophysical structure. We proceed with the information approach to quantum theory and the subjective interpretation of quantum probabilities (due to quantum Bayesianism). This article is part of the theme issue ‘Hilbert's sixth problem’.
As was recently shown by the authors, quantum probability theory can be used for the modelling of the process of decision-making (e.g. probabilistic risk analysis) for macroscopic geophysical structures such as hydrocarbon reservoirs. This approach can be considered as a geophysical realization of Hilbert's programme on axiomatization of statistical models in physics (the famous sixth Hilbert problem). In this conceptual paper , we continue development of this approach to decision-making under uncertainty which is generated by complexity, variability, heterogeneity, anisotropy, as well as the restrictions to accessibility of subsurface structures. The belief state of a geological expert about the potential of exploring a hydrocarbon reservoir is continuously updated by outputs of measurements, and selection of mathematical models and scales of numerical simulation. These outputs can be treated as signals from the information environment E . The dynamics of the belief state can be modelled with the aid of the theory of open quantum systems: a quantum state (representing uncertainty in beliefs) is dynamically modified through coupling with E ; stabilization to a steady state determines a decision strategy. In this paper, the process of decision-making about hydrocarbon reservoirs (e.g. ‘explore or not?'; ‘open new well or not?’; ‘contaminated by water or not?’; ‘double or triple porosity medium?’) is modelled by using the Gorini–Kossakowski–Sudarshan–Lindblad equation. In our model, this equation describes the evolution of experts' predictions about a geophysical structure. We proceed with the information approach to quantum theory and the subjective interpretation of quantum probabilities (due to quantum Bayesianism). This article is part of the theme issue ‘Hilbert's sixth problem’.
The paper starts with a brief review of the literature about uncertainty in geological, geophysical and petrophysical data. In particular, we present the viewpoints of experts in geophysics on the application of Bayesian inference and subjective probability. Then we present arguments that the use of classical probability theory (CP) does not match completely the structure of geophysical data. We emphasize that such data are characterized by contextuality and non-Kolmogorovness (the impossibility to use the CP model), incompleteness as well as incompatibility of some geophysical measurements. These characteristics of geophysical data are similar to the characteristics of quantum physical data. Notwithstanding all this, contextuality can be seen as a major deviation of quantum theory from classical physics. In particular, the contextual probability viewpoint is the essence of the Växjö interpretation of quantum mechanics. We propose to use quantum probability (QP) for decision-making during the characterization, modelling, exploring and management of theintelligent hydrocarbon reservoir. Quantum Bayesianism (QBism), one of the recently developed information interpretations of quantum theory, can be used as the interpretational basis for such QP decision-making in geology, geophysics and petroleum projects design and management. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Second quantum revolution: foundational questions’.
We present the mathematical model of decision-making (DM) of agents acting in a complex and uncertain environment (combining huge variety of economical, financial, behavioural and geopolitical factors). To describe interaction of agents with it, we apply the formalism of quantum field theory (QTF). Quantum fields are a purely informational nature. The QFT model can be treated as a far relative of the expected utility theory, where the role of utility is played by adaptivity to an environment (bath). However, this sort of utility-adaptivity cannot be represented simply as a numerical function. The operator representation in Hilbert space is used and adaptivity is described as in quantum dynamics. We are especially interested in stabilization of solutions for sufficiently large time. The outputs of this stabilization process, probabilities for possible choices, are treated in the framework of classical DM. To connect classical and quantum DM, we appeal to Quantum Bayesianism. We demonstrate the quantum-like interference effect in DM, which is exhibited as a violation of the formula of total probability, and hence the classical Bayesian inference scheme.This article is part of the themed issue 'Second quantum revolution: foundational questions'.
The increasing complexity of modern decision-making environments has challenged the effectiveness of classical mathematical models. Traditional probabilistic frameworks often struggle to represent uncertainty, ambiguity, contextual dependence, and nonlinear interactions among decision variables. Quantum-inspired mathematical models have emerged as a promising interdisciplinary approach that leverages mathematical principles derived from quantum theory without requiring quantum computing hardware. These models utilize concepts such as superposition, interference, entanglement, and contextuality to represent complex decision processes more accurately. This paper explores the theoretical foundations, mathematical structures, and applications of quantum-inspired decision models in complex systems. The study examines how quantum probability theory provides a more flexible representation of human cognition, organizational decision-making, financial forecasting, and artificial intelligence systems. Furthermore, the paper discusses mathematical formulations, implementation strategies, advantages, challenges, and future research directions. The findings suggest that quantum-inspired models offer significant potential for addressing uncertainty and dynamic interactions in complex decision environments, thereby contributing to the advancement of intelligent decision support systems.
Classical models of decision-making under uncertainty, grounded in expected utility theory and Bayesian probability, often fail to account for systematic cognitive anomalies such as preference reversals, order effects, ambiguity aversion, and context-dependent choices. Quantum cognition models offer a novel theoretical framework that applies the mathematical principles of quantum probability—such as superposition, interference, and non-commutativity—to cognitive processes without assuming physical quantum mechanisms in the brain. By representing cognitive states as probabilistic superpositions that collapse through decision “measurements,” these models provide parsimonious explanations for violations of classical rationality. This paper examines how quantum cognition frameworks capture contextual influence, belief updating, and interference effects in uncertain decision environments. Drawing on findings from cognitive psychology and behavioral economics, the study highlights the relevance of quantum cognition for applications in economic choice modeling, legal decision analysis, and artificial intelligence. The analysis suggests that quantum probability offers a robust alternative to classical approaches when modeling human decision-making in complex, ambiguous, and context-sensitive situations.
With the birth of quantum mechanics, the two disciplines that Hilbert proposed to axiomatize, probability and mechanics, became entangled and a new probabilistic model arose in addition to the classical one. Thus, to meet Hilbert's challenge, an axiomatization should account deductively for the basic features of all three disciplines. This goal was achieved within the framework of quantum probability. The present paper surveys the quantum probabilistic axiomatization.This article is part of the themed issue 'Hilbert's sixth problem'.
The recent wave of interest to modeling the process of decision making with the aid of the quantum formalism gives rise to the following question: 'How can neurons generate quantum-like statistical data?' (There is a plenty of such data in cognitive psychology and social science). Our model is based on quantum-like representation of uncertainty in generation of action potentials. This uncertainty is a consequence of complexity of electrochemical processes in the brain; in particular, uncertainty of triggering an action potential by the membrane potential. Quantum information state spaces can be considered as extensions of classical information spaces corresponding to neural codes; e.g., 0/1, quiescent/firing neural code. The key point is that processing of information by the brain involves superpositions of such states. Another key point is that a neuronal group performing some psychological function F is an open quantum system. It interacts with the surrounding electrochemical environment. The process of decision making is described as decoherence in the basis of eigenstates of F. A decision state is a steady state. This is a linear representation of complex nonlinear dynamics of electrochemical states. Linearity guarantees exponentially fast convergence to the decision state.