Pinpointing Super-Quadratic Quantum Enumeration Speedups
Carsten Schubert, Niklas Paskarbeit, Maximilian J. Kramer +2 more
In cryptanalysis and beyond, presumably the most basic problem is search within an unstructured space: Given a finite set of elements K, find a marked element using an efficiently evaluable predicate. Grover's algorithm [16] gives an optimal quadratic query advantage for black-box search. Cryptanalytic settings, however, often come with additional probabilistic advice over the candidate space. These distributions frequently have product form, e.g. when probabilities for independent key coordinates are derived from side-channel leakage. Classically, simply querying the predicate function in the given likelihood order is optimal to find the correct result as fast as possible in expectation. In the quantum setting, Montanaro [26] showed how to achieve an optimal expected query complexity, beating plain Grover on every non-uniform distribution of the advice (disregarding a constant overhead factor). What has been missing so far is a finite-size method for evaluating the quantum-classical guessing-moment separation induced by a given advice distribution. We provide such a method for product-distribution advice, thereby sharpening the previous entropy-based estimate of Bashiri et al. [6]. Our approach reduces the relevant classical and quantum guessing moments to functionals of the one-dimensional surprisal distribution. For product advice, this distribution is obtained by convolving the per-coordinate surprisal laws. When the surprisals lie on a common arithmetic grid—the commensurate case—the resulting logarithmic moments, and hence the speedup exponent, can be evaluated as finite sums without discretization error. Exponential tilting makes this computation numerically stable. For general non-commensurate product advice, we discretize the surprisals onto a common grid before running our algorithm and derive an a-posteriori bound on the resulting binning error. We apply the framework to cold-boot leakage on seeds and block-cipher keys, to template-attack posteriors, and to synthetic i.i.d. Bernoulli posteriors whose parameter is chosen to reproduce average residual ranks reported for Keccak side-channel attacks on ML-KEM and ML-DSA. The resulting guessing-moment exponents substantially exceed 2 in several skewed-advice settings, reaching 3.92 for cold-boot advice and 3.12 in the synthetic models, and include cases where the previous entropy-based bound did not establish an exponent above 2.
arXiv:2609.28226•ACM Conference on Post-Quantum and Quantum-based Security•Oct 26, 2026•0 citations