Firming Up Physics

Kazuya Taira, Yusuke Kodaira, 恵美 鎌田 +3 more

Abstract Public and private investment in quantum technologies has grown rapidly, yet evidence on the demand side—which firms are adopting, for what applications, on what timelines, and against which barriers—rests largely on industry surveys with undisclosed sampling frames. We report a descriptive, prevalence-style analysis of quantum technology adoption based on a census-approach survey of the complete population of listed firms in Japan. A postal questionnaire was mailed to all 3,890 firms listed on Japanese stock exchanges (December 2025–January 2026); 154 firms returned analyzable questionnaires (crude response rate 4.0%). Because the full sampling frame with firm attributes was available, response propensities were modeled (AUC = 0.671) and inverse-probability weighting (IPW) was used to adjust prevalence estimates for response bias; population totals were obtained with Horvitz–Thompson estimators. Proportions are reported with Wilson 95% confidence intervals. An estimated 59.9% (95% CI 50.5–68.6) of listed firms express at least interest in quantum technologies, but only 16.0% (10.3–24.0) have reached even the PoC-planning stage and 7.2% (3.7–13.6; ≈276 firms) have begun concrete activities. Interest concentrates in quantum machine learning (48.5% of engaged firms), chemistry/simulation (45.6%), and optimization (44.7%). Expected timelines are dominated by indecision: 64% of engaged firms answering could not name a target year for full commercialization, and only 3% expect it by 2030. The most prevalent barrier is the internal shortage of quantum talent (85.3% of engaged firms); the barriers associated with progression from interest to active engagement, however, are the lack of collaboration partners and the lack of a basis for decision-making. The most requested facilitator is expert demonstration of business potential (43.7%), far ahead of government financial support (9.7%). Interest in quantum technologies is widespread among Japanese listed firms, but concrete planning is rare and capability investments are concentrated in a small set of large firms. The findings highlight the importance of use-case demonstration, partnership brokering, and talent development alongside financial support.

Smauel Moore

Several firms, including ID Quantique, MagiQ, and SmartQuantum, are working on turning the esoteric quantum properties of light into money. These firms are trying to sell a way of distributing a cryptographic key that is theoretically theft-proof because it relies on the quirky quantum physics of photons. Such a quantum key distribution system could allow entities with secrets to encode and decode their data for transmission over optical fiber. Quantum key distribution lets two computers generate a key between them by taking advantage of a quantum property of photon. A quantum key can be generated by transmitting a series of bits encoded using one or a few photons per bit and two types of polarization filters

Sharma, Amarendra

This paper introduces economists to quantum-inspired approaches for modeling firm behavior in a Cournot Duopoly, designed for accessibility and pedagogical use. We present key quantum concepts -- superposition, entanglement, and quantum search algorithms (Grover's and Dürr-Høyer's) -- in an intuitive manner, tailored for those without a quantum physics background. These concepts are applied to represent uncertainty, interdependence, and optimization in novel ways, offering fresh perspectives on firm decision-making. By incorporating numerical examples, we illustrate how quantum-inspired models differ from classical Cournot outcomes, highlighting potential advantages in capturing complex strategic interactions. The paper aims to bridge quantum computing and economic theory, providing a foundation for teaching and exploring advanced modeling techniques.

TULLIO BRESSANI