A Social Quantum Theory for the Analysis of Public Opinion Survey Data

Timofeev, Dmitry

Context This working paper is part of a larger research programme connecting quantum physics and social subjectivity through a common logical foundation (Sorkin's anhomomorphic logic). It serves as Example 1 in a conceptual framework titled "Emergent Time: From Quantum Physics to Social Subjectivity" (Timofeev, 2025). Motivation The systematic divergence between Russian state-affiliated and independent polling organizations (consistently 5-20 percentage points, peaking at 15-25 p.p. during political crises) provides a natural experiment for testing quantum-logical properties in social measurement. Unlike Western polling discrepancies attributed to sampling or methodology, the Russian case demonstrates observer-dependent collapse: the identity of the measuring organization fundamentally determines the measured outcome. Theoretical Framework Drawing on: Sorkin (1994): Anhomomorphic logic as meta-structure for contextual systems Dzhafarov & Kujala (2012): Contextuality-by-Default model Stephenson (1953) & Brown (1980): Q-methodology as operationalization of quantum logic Bourdieu (1972): Symbolic violence and habitus formation Empirical Basis Uses publicly available aggregated data from 10 verified sources (Levada Center, VCIOM, Reuters, Carnegie Endowment, Statista, etc.) covering 2018-2025, documenting systematic patterns across: 2018 Pension Reform crisis 2019 VCIOM methodology change (closed vs open questions) 2022 Ukraine invasion ("Special Military Operation") 2023-2025 stabilization period Three-Level Analysis Classical level: Political manipulation through sampling bias and question wording Non-classical level: Exploitation of fundamental contextual properties (superposition, collapse) Epistemological level: Masking constitutive measurement as "scientific discovery" Implications Methodological: Classical survey methodology inadequate for sensitive political contexts Philosophical: "Public opinion" may not exist as determinate entity prior to measurement (supporting Bourdieu's 1972 thesis "l'opinion publique n'existe pas") Political: Authoritarian regimes intuitively exploit quantum-logical properties for reality construction Empirical: Proposes falsifiable test via Bell-CHSH inequalities (requires microdata access) Limitations Based on aggregated public data, not individual-level microdata CHSH inequality test remains theoretical proposal, not conducted Culturally specific to Russian political context (generalizability requires cross-national replication) Alternative classical explanations (sampling bias, social desirability) not fully ruled out without microdata Intended Audience Quantum social science researchers Survey methodologists Political sociologists studying authoritarianism Philosophers of social science Q-methodology practitioners

François Dubois

François Dubois

Yasuko Kawahata

Recent research has developed the Ising model from physics, especially statistical mechanics, and it plays an important role in quantum computing, especially quantum annealing and quantum Monte Carlo methods. The model has also been used in opinion dynamics as a powerful tool for simulating social interactions and opinion formation processes. Individual opinions and preferences correspond to spin states, and social pressure and communication dynamics are modeled through interactions between spins. Quantum computing makes it possible to efficiently simulate these interactions and analyze more complex social networks.Recent research has incorporated concepts from quantum information theory such as Graph State, Stabilizer State, and Surface Code (or Toric Code) into models of opinion dynamics. The incorporation of these concepts allows for a more detailed analysis of the process of opinion formation and the dynamics of social networks. The concepts lie at the intersection of graph theory and quantum theory, and the use of Graph State in opinion dynamics can represent the interdependence of opinions and networks of influence among individuals. It helps to represent the local stability of opinions and the mechanisms for correcting misunderstandings within a social network. It allows us to understand how individual opinions are subject to social pressures and cultural influences and how they change over time.Incorporating these quantum theory concepts into opinion dynamics allows for a deeper understanding of social interactions and opinion formation processes. Moreover, these concepts can provide new insights not only in the social sciences, but also in fields as diverse as political science, economics, marketing, and urban planning.

Emmanuel E. Haven, Andrei Yu. Khrennikov, T. R. Robinson

Steve Fuller

Abstract I discuss the revolutionary implications of Alexander Wendt's Quantum Mind and Social Science for social theory. These center on the significance given to society as a possibility space in which observable social reality amounts to quantum decoherent states in the system. I discuss how Wendt radicalises social constructivism and goes considerably beyond Bourdieu's conceptions of society as a field. A signature feature in Wendt's theory, the state as a hologram, comports well with the implied view of the social order in much public opinion and market research. In this respect, Wendt's theory is very attuned to the spirit of our times.