Variational Bayes (VB) inference algorithm is used widely to estimate both the parameters and the unobserved hidden variables in generative statistical models. The algorithm—inspired by variational methods used in computational physics—is iterative and can get easily stuck in local minima, even when classical techniques, such as deterministic annealing (DA), are used. We study a VB inference algorithm based on a nontraditional quantum annealing approach—referred to as quantum annealing variational Bayes (QAVB) inference—and show that there is indeed a quantum advantage to QAVB over its classical counterparts. In particular, we show that such better performance is rooted in key quantum mechanics concepts: i) The ground state of the Hamiltonian of a quantum system—defined from the given data—corresponds to an optimal solution for the minimization problem of the variational free energy at very low temperatures; ii) such a ground state can be achieved by a technique paralleling the quantum annealing process; and iii) starting from this ground state, the optimal solution to the VB problem can be achieved by increasing the heat bath temperature to unity, and thereby avoiding local minima introduced by spontaneous symmetry breaking observed in classical physics based VB algorithms. We also show that the update equations of QAVB can be potentially implemented using ⌈log K ⌉ qubits and 𝒪( K ) operations per step, where K is the number of values hidden categorical variables can take. Thus, QAVB can match the time complexity of existing VB algorithms, while delivering higher performance.
Bell inequalities characterize the boundary of the local-realist correlation polytope -- the set of joint probability distributions achievable by classical hidden-variable models. Quantum mechanics exceeds this boundary through non-commutativity, reaching the Tsirelson bound 22 for CHSH. We show that this polytope structure is not specific to quantum foundations: it appears identically in the causal inference literature, where the instrumental inequality, the Balke--Pearl linear programming bounds, and the Tian--Pearl probabilities of causation all arise as facets of the same marginal compatibility polytope. Fine's theorem -- that CHSH inequalities hold if and only if a joint distribution exists -- is precisely the pivot: the instrumental variable model in causal inference is structurally equivalent to the Bell local hidden-variable model, with the instrument playing the role of the measurement setting and the latent confounder playing the role of the hidden variable λ. We develop this correspondence in detail, extending it to algorithmic (Kolmogorov complexity) and entropic formulations of Bell inequalities, the NPA semidefinite programming hierarchy, and the MIP∗=RE undecidability result. We further show that the Born-rule / Bayes-rule duality underlying quantum Bayesian computation exploits the same non-commutativity that enables Bell violation, providing polynomial speedups for posterior inference. The framework yields a concrete dictionary between quantum information theory, causal econometrics, and Bayesian computation, and suggests new directions including NPA-based quantum causal inference algorithms and quantum architectures for function approximation.
Many widely studied graphical models with latent variables lead to nontrivial constraints on the distribution of the observed variables. Inspired by the Bell inequalities in quantum mechanics, we refer to any linear inequality whose violation rules out some latent variable model as a "hidden variable test" for that model. Our main contribution is to introduce a sequence of relaxations which provides progressively tighter hidden variable tests. We demonstrate applicability to mixtures of sequences of i.i.d. variables, Bell inequalities, and homophily models in social networks. For the last, we demonstrate that our method provides a test that is able to rule out latent homophily as the sole explanation for correlations on a real social network that are known to be due to influence.