The Mosca Model and why time is not on your side
Walt Powell
This chapter introduces the Mosca Model, a time-based framework developed by quantum computing pioneer Michele Mosca to help organizations assess their exposure to quantum threats. By comparing three critical variables – how long data must remain secure (Y), how long it will take to migrate to quantum-safe systems (X), and how long until quantum computers can break current encryption (Z) – the model provides a simple inequality (X + Y > Z) that reframes quantum readiness as a race against time. If the sum of X and Y exceeds Z, the organization is already vulnerable, even if Q-Day has not yet arrived. The chapter walks readers through practical applications of the model across various sectors, including finance, healthcare, government, and critical infrastructure. It explores how long-lived data retention requirements and the complexity of cryptographic migration – especially for embedded systems, OT/ICS, and third-party dependencies – can significantly extend X and Y beyond safe thresholds. The discussion includes guidance on how to apply the model using established risk frameworks such as FAIR, NIST RMF, ISO 27005, and DoCRA, and highlights the strategic value of early action to avoid cascading failures in digital trust, compliance, and operational continuity.
CRC Press eBooks•Dec 12, 2025•0 citations