Distinguishing Quantum and Markov models of human decision-making

Jerome R. Busemeyer, Zheng Wang, Ariane Lambert‐Mogiliansky

Diederik Aerts, Massimiliano Sassoli de Bianchi, Sandro Sozzo +1 more

Levent Yılmaz

Jerome R. Busemeyer, Peter D. Kvam, Timothy Joseph Pleskac

What kind of dynamic decision process do humans use to make decisions? In this article, two different types of processes are reviewed and compared: Markov and quantum. Markov processes are based on the idea that at any given point in time a decision maker has a definite and specific level of support for available choice alternatives, and the dynamic decision process is represented by a single trajectory that traces out a path across time. When a response is requested, a person's decision or judgment is generated from the current location along the trajectory. By contrast, quantum processes are founded on the idea that a person's state can be represented by a superposition over different degrees of support for available choice options, and that the dynamics of this state form a wave moving across levels of support over time. When a response is requested, a decision or judgment is constructed out of the superposition by "actualizing" a specific degree or range of degrees of support to create a definite state. The purpose of this article is to introduce these two contrasting theories, review empirical studies comparing the two theories, and identify conditions that determine when each theory is more accurate and useful than the other. This article is categorized under: Economics > Individual Decision-Making Psychology > Reasoning and Decision Making Psychology > Theory and Methods.

Jerome R. Busemeyer, Qizi Zhang, Sivasubramanya Nadar Balakrishnan +1 more

Markov processes, such as random walk models, have been successfully used by cognitive and neural scientists to model human choice behavior and decision time for over 50 years. Recently, quantum walk models have been introduced as an alternative way to model the dynamics of human choice and confidence across time. Empirical evidence points to the need for both types of processes, and open system models provide a way to incorporate them both into a single process. However, some of the constraints required by open system models present challenges for achieving this goal. The purpose of this article is to address these challenges and formulate open system models that have good potential to make important advancements in cognitive science.

William H. Batchelder, Hans Colonius, Ehtibar N. Dzhafarov