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arXiv:2610.16379

Benchmarking a randomized quantum algorithm for estimating expectation values of molecular observables

Anna Schroeder, Gian-Luca R. Anselmetti, Matthias Degroote, Florian Dommert, Michael Kaicher, Chandan Kumar, Michael Streif, Davide Vodola

quant-phSubmitted Oct 12, 2026• Announced Oct 13, 2026• 0 citations
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Abstract

Randomized quantum algorithms for the estimation of expectation values of molecular observables offer a promising route to early fault-tolerant quantum advantage by trading circuit depth for an increased number of samples. However, this begs the question whether the resulting measurement overhead remains feasible for industrially relevant molecular systems. In this work, we benchmark the randomized sampling algorithm of Wang et al. [1] through numerical simulations on a hydrogen molecule and resource estimates for various active spaces of the cytochrome P450, an industry-relevant system in the pharmaceutical industry. Our numerical simulations reveal that the analytical error bounds significantly overestimate the actual sampling error, whereas the analytical bound on the required imaginary evolution time is comparatively tight, exceeding a direct DMRG estimate by roughly 44% for the active space where the comparison is feasible. The measurement overhead nevertheless remains prohibitively high: even for the smallest active spaces, the expectation-value estimation alone requires around 1010 samples, scaling to beyond 1015 for the largest active spaces considered. These results suggest that substantial improvements in measurement strategies or algorithmic scaling are necessary before randomized early-fault-tolerant algorithms become competitive for industrial quantum chemistry applications.

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Over the past three decades significant reductions have been made to the cost of estimating ground-state energies of molecular Hamiltonians with quantum computers. However, comparatively little attention has been paid to estimating the expectation values of other observables with respect to said ground states, which is important for many industrial applications. In this work we present a novel expectation value estimation (EVE) quantum algorithm which can be applied to estimate the expectation values of arbitrary observables with respect to any of the system's eigenstates. In particular, we consider two variants of EVE: std-EVE, based on standard quantum phase estimation, and QSP-EVE, which utilizes quantum signal processing (QSP) techniques. We provide rigorous error analysis for both both variants and minimize the number of individual phase factors for QSPEVE. These error analyses enable us to produce constant-factor quantum resource estimates for both std-EVE and QSP-EVE across a variety of molecular systems and observables. For the systems considered, we show that QSP-EVE reduces (Toffoli) gate counts by up to three orders of magnitude and reduces qubit width by up to 25% compared to std-EVE. While estimated resource counts remain far too high for the first generations of fault-tolerant quantum computers, our estimates mark a first of their kind for both the application of expectation value estimation and modern QSP-based techniques.

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Randomized quantum algorithms for the estimation of expectation values of molecular observables offer a promising route to early fault-tolerant quantum advantage by trading circuit depth for an increased number of samples. However, this begs the question whether the resulting measurement overhead remains feasible for industrially relevant molecular systems. In this work, we benchmark the randomized sampling algorithm of Wang et al. [1] through numerical simulations on a hydrogen molecule and resource estimates for various active spaces of the cytochrome P450, an industry-relevant system in the pharmaceutical industry. Our numerical simulations reveal that the analytical error bounds significantly overestimate the actual sampling error, whereas the analytical bound on the required imaginary evolution time is comparatively tight, exceeding a direct DMRG estimate by roughly 44% for the active space where the comparison is feasible. The measurement overhead nevertheless remains prohibitively high: even for the smallest active spaces, the expectation-value estimation alone requires around 1010 samples, scaling to beyond 1015 for the largest active spaces considered. These results suggest that substantial improvements in measurement strategies or algorithmic scaling are necessary before randomized early-fault-tolerant algorithms become competitive for industrial quantum chemistry applications.
Over the past three decades significant reductions have been made to the cost of estimating ground-state energies of molecular Hamiltonians with quantum computers. However, comparatively little attention has been paid to estimating the expectation values of other observables with respect to said ground states, which is important for many industrial applications. In this work we present a novel expectation value estimation (EVE) quantum algorithm which can be applied to estimate the expectation values of arbitrary observables with respect to any of the system's eigenstates. In particular, we consider two variants of EVE: std-EVE, based on standard quantum phase estimation, and QSP-EVE, which utilizes quantum signal processing (QSP) techniques. We provide rigorous error analysis for both both variants and minimize the number of individual phase factors for QSPEVE. These error analyses enable us to produce constant-factor quantum resource estimates for both std-EVE and QSP-EVE across a variety of molecular systems and observables. For the systems considered, we show that QSP-EVE reduces (Toffoli) gate counts by up to three orders of magnitude and reduces qubit width by up to 25% compared to std-EVE. While estimated resource counts remain far too high for the first generations of fault-tolerant quantum computers, our estimates mark a first of their kind for both the application of expectation value estimation and modern QSP-based techniques.
Quantum simulation of molecular electronic structure is one of the most promising applications of quantum computing. However, achieving chemically accurate predictions for strongly correlated systems requires quantum phase estimation (QPE) on fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC) devices. Existing resource estimates for typical FTQC architectures suggest that such calculations demand millions of physical qubits, thereby placing them beyond the reach of near-term devices. Here, we investigate the feasibility of performing QPE for chemically relevant molecular systems in an early-FTQC regime, characterized by partial fault tolerance, constrained qubit budgets, and limited circuit depth. Our framework is based on single-ancilla, Trotter-based QPE implementations combined with partially randomized time evolution. Within this framework, we develop a novel Hamiltonian optimization strategy, termed unitary weight concentration, that reduces algorithmic cost by reshaping linear-combination-of-unitaries representations. Applying this framework to active-space models of iron-sulfur clusters, cytochrome P450 active sites, and CO2_22​-utilization catalysts, we perform end-to-end resource estimation using the latest version of the space-time efficient analog rotation (STAR) architecture. Our results indicate that ground-state energy estimation for active spaces of approximately 20 to 50 spatial orbitals, well beyond the reach of classical full configuration interaction, is achievable using ∼105\sim 10^5∼105 physical qubits, with runtimes on the order of days to weeks. These findings demonstrate that while full-fledged fault-tolerant quantum computers will be required for even larger molecular simulations, chemically meaningful quantum chemistry problems are already within reach in an experimentally relevant, early-FTQC regime.
Abstract The hope of the quantum computing field is that quantum architectures are able to scale up and realize fault-tolerant quantum computing. Due to engineering challenges, such “cheap” error cor- rection may be decades away. In the meantime, we anticipate an era of “costly” error correction, or early fault-tolerant quantum computing. Costly error correction might warrant settling for error-prone quantum computations. This motivates the development of quantum algorithms which are robust to some degree of error as well as methods to analyze their performance in the presence of error. We introduce a randomized algorithm for the task of phase estimation and give an analysis of its performance under two simple noise models. In both cases the analysis leads to a noise threshold, below which arbitrarily high accuracy can be achieved by increasing the number of samples used in the algorithm. As an application of this general analysis, we compute the maximum ratio of the largest circuit depth and the dephasing scale such that performance guarantees hold. We calculate that the randomized algorithm can succeed with arbitrarily high probability as long as the required circuit depth is less than 0.916 times the dephasing scale.
We investigate the feasibility of early fault-tolerant quantum algorithms focusing on ground-state energy estimation problems. In particular, we examine the computation of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the spectral measure of a Hamiltonian and the identification of its discontinuities. Scaling these methods to larger system sizes reveals three key challenges: the smoothness of the CDF for large supports, the lack of tight lower bounds on the overlap with the true ground state, and the difficulty of preparing high-quality initial states. To address these challenges, we propose a signal processing approach to find these estimates automatically, in the regime where the quality of the initial state is unknown. Rather than aiming for exact ground-state energy, we advocate for improving classical estimates by targeting the low-energy support of the initial state. Additionally, we provide quantitative resource estimates, demonstrating a constant factor improvement in the number of samples required to detect a specified change in CDF. Our numerical experiments, conducted on a 26-qubit fully connected Heisenberg model, leverage a truncated density-matrix renormalization group (DMRG) initial state with a low bond dimension. The results show that the predictions from the quantum algorithm align closely with the DMRG-converged energies at larger bond dimensions while requiring several orders of magnitude fewer samples than theoretical estimates suggest. These findings underscore that CDF-based quantum algorithms are a practical and resource-efficient alternative to quantum phase estimation, particularly in resource-constrained scenarios.
Many hybrid quantum-classical algorithms for the application of ground state energy estimation in quantum chemistry involve estimating the expectation value of a molecular Hamiltonian with respect to a quantum state through measurements on a quantum device. To guide the selection of measurement methods designed for this observable estimation problem, we propose a benchmark called CSHOREBench (Common States and Hamiltonians for ObseRvable Estimation Benchmark) that assesses the performance of these methods against a set of common molecular Hamiltonians and common states encountered during the runtime of hybrid quantum-classical algorithms. In CSHOREBench, we account for resource utilization of a quantum computer through measurements of a prepared state, and a classical computer through computational runtime spent in proposing measurements and classical post-processing of acquired measurement outcomes. We apply CSHOREBench considering a variety of measurement methods on Hamiltonians of size up to 16 qubits. Our discussion is aided by using the framework of decision diagrams which provides an efficient data structure for various randomized methods and illustrate how to derandomize distributions on decision diagrams. In numerical simulations, we find that the methods of decision diagrams and derandomization are the most preferable. In experiments on IBM quantum devices against small molecules, we observe that decision diagrams reduces the number of measurements made by classical shadows by more than 80%, that made by locally biased classical shadows by around 57%, and consistently require fewer quantum measurements along with lower classical computational runtime than derandomization. Furthermore, CSHOREBench is empirically efficient to run when considering states of random quantum ansatz with fixed depth.
Quantum phase estimation combined with Hamiltonian simulation is the most promising algorithmic framework to computing ground-state energies on quantum computers. Its main computational overhead derives from the Hamiltonian simulation subroutine. In this paper we use randomization to speed up product formulas, one of the standard approaches to Hamiltonian simulation. We propose partially randomized Hamiltonian simulation methods in which some terms are kept deterministically and others are randomly sampled. We perform a detailed resource estimate for single-ancilla phase estimation using partially randomized product formulas for benchmark systems in quantum chemistry and obtain orders-of-magnitude improvements compared to other simulations based on product formulas. When applied to the hydrogen chain, we have numerical evidence that our methods exhibit asymptotic scaling with the system size that is competitive with the best known qubitization approaches.