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arXiv:2610.10756 · Quantum Science and Technology

Quantum-Enhanced Inference of Conditional Future Probabilities with Reduced Memory Cost

Jianjun Chen, Akshat Gupta, Chengran Yang, Ariel Neufeld, Jayne Thompson, Thomas J. Elliott, Mile Gu

quant-phSubmitted Oct 7, 2026• Announced Oct 9, 2026• 0 citations
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Abstract

Many potential future events have devastating consequences, from the onset of earthquakes to financial black swan events. Accurate predictions of their probability of occurrence are vital. Yet as the stochastic systems underlying such events become increasingly complex, these probabilities can depend on ever-growing amounts of past data, which require ever more memory to track. The accuracy of our estimates is ultimately limited by both computational and memory constraints; the former to reduce sampling error, the latter to avoid sampling bias. Traditional quantum algorithms -- such as amplitude estimation -- address only the former, and become untenable especially in near-future quantum devices where quantum memory is a premium. Here, we offer quantum-algorithmic means to reduce systematic bias while maintaining a quadratic speed-up. Our results thus advance the timeline for the practical deployment of quantum technologies, and illustrate their additional benefits when simulating processes of growing complexity.

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Many potential future events have devastating consequences, from the onset of earthquakes to financial black swan events. Accurate predictions of their probability of occurrence are vital. Yet as the stochastic systems underlying such events become increasingly complex, these probabilities can depend on ever-growing amounts of past data, which require ever more memory to track. The accuracy of our estimates is ultimately limited by both computational and memory constraints; the former to reduce sampling error, the latter to avoid sampling bias. Traditional quantum algorithms -- such as amplitude estimation -- address only the former, and become untenable especially in near-future quantum devices where quantum memory is a premium. Here, we offer quantum-algorithmic means to reduce systematic bias while maintaining a quadratic speed-up. Our results thus advance the timeline for the practical deployment of quantum technologies, and illustrate their additional benefits when simulating processes of growing complexity.
In a world fraught with uncertainty, it behooves us to consider the most disastrous possible outcomes, in order that we can best mitigate against them. Often these are extreme risk events -- of high consequence, but low probability. Yet, the rarity of such events limits our ability to study them; there is a paucity of past occurrences to draw upon, and sampling such rare events from models is typically costly in time. Here, we introduce an approach for rare-event sampling based on quantum stochastic models. This integrates the memory advantages of quantum stochastic modelling -- and its associated efficient means of preparing quantum sample states -- with the `speed-ups' of quantum amplitude amplification, to yield simultaneous reductions in spatial and temporal computational complexity compared to classical Monte Carlo-based approaches.
In modelling complex processes, the potential past data that influence future expectations are immense. Models that track all this data are not only computationally wasteful but also shed little light on what past data most influence the future. There is thus enormous interest in dimensional reduction-finding automated means to reduce the memory dimension of our models while minimizing its impact on its predictive accuracy. Here we construct dimensionally reduced quantum models by machine learning methods that can achieve greater accuracy than provably optimal classical counterparts. We demonstrate this advantage on present-day quantum computing hardware. Our algorithm works directly off classical time-series data and can thus be deployed in real-world settings. These techniques illustrate the immediate relevance of quantum technologies to time-series analysis and offer a rare instance where the resulting quantum advantage can be provably established.
Complex systems are embedded in our everyday experience. Stochastic modelling enables us to understand and predict the behaviour of such systems, cementing its utility across the quantitative sciences. Accurate models of highly non-Markovian processes - where the future behaviour depends on events that happened far in the past - must track copious amounts of information about past observations, requiring high-dimensional memories. Quantum technologies can ameliorate this cost, allowing models of the same processes with lower memory dimension than corresponding classical models. Here we implement such memory-efficient quantum models for a family of non-Markovian processes using a photonic setup. We show that with a single qubit of memory our implemented quantum models can attain higher precision than possible with any classical model of the same memory dimension. This heralds a key step towards applying quantum technologies in complex systems modelling.
Quantum-enhanced statistical inference is a burgeoning field aiming to significantly improve the efficiency and accuracy of statistical analysis, particularly for complex datasets. This paper explores a novel method, Quantum-Enhanced Statistical Inference with Adaptive Sampling, designed to address a key challenge in this area – the increasing computational cost associated with traditional statistical methods. We propose an algorithm that utilizes quantum properties to enhance the precision of statistical estimates, reducing computational demands without sacrificing accuracy. This work introduces a framework for adaptive sampling, dynamically adjusting the sampling process based on data characteristics, ultimately offering a promising path towards more efficient and reliable statistical analysis of complex datasets. This paper provides a detailed explanation of the core mechanism, its potential benefits, and preliminary results demonstrating its effectiveness.
Financial crashes, cascading failures in infrastructure, and critical errors in AI systems are frequently triggered by events that occur with extremely small probability. Efficiently discovering and sampling events with probability below a threshold is therefore of critical interest. Yet this task is highly non-trivial using existing classical or quantum methods. Being rare, such events require an immense sampling overhead to collect sufficient data samples. Moreover, because the rare events are not known in advance, they cannot be flagged for amplification using standard techniques. Here, we introduce a quantum algorithm for rare-event discovery and sampling without first learning which events are rare. The algorithm achieves the optimal quantum scaling with the rarity threshold. We further demonstrate that this can achieve a quadratic speedup for heavy-tailed systems whose tail has nonvanishing total mass, and translates into a robust polynomial speedup for stationary stochastic processes, with the exponent determined by its entropy-rate structure.
Effective and efficient forecasting relies on identification of the relevant information contained in past observations-the predictive features-and isolating it from the rest. When the future of a process bears a strong dependence on its behavior far into the past, there are many such features to store, necessitating complex models with extensive memories. Here, we highlight a family of stochastic processes whose minimal classical models must devote unboundedly many bits to tracking the past. For this family, we identify quantum models of equal accuracy that can store all relevant information within a single two-dimensional quantum system (qubit). This represents the ultimate limit of quantum compression and highlights an immense practical advantage of quantum technologies for the forecasting and simulation of complex systems.