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arXiv:2609.33132

Quantum Monte Carlo Tree Search with Fixed Confidence

Mingjie Hu, Jian-Qiang Hu, Enlu Zhou

quant-phcs.AISubmitted Sep 27, 2026• Announced Sep 29, 2026• 0 citations
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Abstract

Recent advances in quantum computing are opening new opportunities for computationally intensive decision problems. This paper studies how quantum computing can improve Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) in the fixed-confidence setting, where the goal is to identify a near-optimal move in a given game tree with high probability while minimizing query complexity. We first formulate MCTS under a quantum oracle model. We then develop a quantum MCTS algorithm (QMCTS) that combines threshold-based elimination on the search tree with quantum Monte Carlo estimation to reduce the cost of evaluating stochastic leaf values. We establish an instance-dependent lower bound on the query complexity and derive a corresponding upper bound for QMCTS. The lower-bound analysis introduces a new quantum phase-testing result that may also be useful beyond MCTS. We validate the theoretical results through simulation experiments and further demonstrate the feasibility of QMCTS on real quantum hardware.

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Recent advances in quantum computing are opening new opportunities for computationally intensive decision problems. This paper studies how quantum computing can improve Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) in the fixed-confidence setting, where the goal is to identify a near-optimal move in a given game tree with high probability while minimizing query complexity. We first formulate MCTS under a quantum oracle model. We then develop a quantum MCTS algorithm (QMCTS) that combines threshold-based elimination on the search tree with quantum Monte Carlo estimation to reduce the cost of evaluating stochastic leaf values. We establish an instance-dependent lower bound on the query complexity and derive a corresponding upper bound for QMCTS. The lower-bound analysis introduces a new quantum phase-testing result that may also be useful beyond MCTS. We validate the theoretical results through simulation experiments and further demonstrate the feasibility of QMCTS on real quantum hardware.
This paper investigates the potential of quantum computing to significantly enhance the efficiency of Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithms. MCTS, a cornerstone of modern artificial intelligence, particularly in game playing, relies heavily on computationally intensive simulations to evaluate game states and guide the search process. We propose a hybrid quantum-classical algorithm that leverages quantum superposition and entanglement to achieve a parallel exploration of the vast search space inherent in MCTS. The core mechanism involves utilizing quantum computers for specific tasks within the MCTS workflow, primarily the evaluation of game states. We formulate the problem as a quantum optimization task, mapping the state evaluation to a quantum objective function. The algorithm employs a classical controller to manage the quantum computation, orchestrating the simulations and extracting information. Preliminary theoretical analysis suggests a potential exponential speedup in state evaluation compared to classical simulations, contingent on the quality of the quantum hardware and the effectiveness of the hybrid approach. This research contributes to the broader field of quantum-accelerated AI and provides a framework for future investigations into the practical application of quantum computing within complex decision-making algorithms.
This paper explores the potential of quantum computing to revolutionize Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithms, a cornerstone technique in reinforcement learning and game AI. The core claim is that by harnessing quantum superposition and interference, we can significantly accelerate MCTS's exploration of complex optimization landscapes. The proposed approach utilizes quantum circuits to represent and evaluate game states, leveraging quantum parallelism to concurrently assess multiple branches of the search tree. We demonstrate, through theoretical analysis and algorithmic design, how this quantum-enhanced MCTS can outperform classical MCTS in scenarios with high computational complexity and vast search spaces. The resulting system offers a novel approach to solving complex optimization problems, particularly those found in areas such as game playing, portfolio optimization, and drug discovery. The presented methodology focuses on the conceptual framework and provides a roadmap for future research and development, emphasizing the integration of quantum hardware with sophisticated reinforcement learning strategies. The key innovation lies in the efficient mapping of the MCTS search process onto a quantum computing architecture, exploiting quantum mechanics to dramatically reduce the search time.
Quantum computing has advanced rapidly in recent years and has shown advantages in a variety of domains. In this paper, we investigate its potential for discrete simulation optimization in the fixed-confidence setting, a fundamental problem in the simulation literature. We first introduce a quantum simulation oracle that prepares a coherent superposition over all candidate solutions and provides the foundation for quantum algorithm design. Based on this oracle, we develop the first Grover-search-based quantum algorithm for discrete simulation optimization, called SOGAS. In particular, SOGAS uses a binary-search framework to progressively eliminate suboptimal solutions while carefully controlling the error probability, and eventually identifies a set of near-optimal solutions. We prove that SOGAS returns a near-optimal solution with probability at least the prescribed confidence level and achieves a quadratic speedup in the dependence of query complexity on the number of candidate solutions. Numerical experiments further show that SOGAS substantially outperforms classical benchmarks and provide empirical evidence for quantum advantage in discrete simulation optimization.
In the noisy intermediate-scale quantum era, quantum processing units suffer from, among others, highly limited connectivity between physical qubits. To make a quantum circuit effectively executable, a circuit transformation process is necessary to transform it, with overhead cost the smaller the better, into a functionally equivalent one so that the connectivity constraints imposed by the quantum processing unit are satisfied. Although several algorithms have been proposed for this goal, the overhead costs are often very high, which degenerates the fidelity of the obtained circuits sharply. One major reason for this lies in that, due to the high branching factor and vast search space, almost all of these algorithms only search very shallowly, and thus, very often, only (at most) locally optimal solutions can be reached. In this article, we propose a Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) framework to tackle the circuit transformation problem, which enables the search process to go much deeper. The general framework supports implementations aiming to reduce either the size or depth of the output circuit through introducing SWAP or remote CNOT gates. The algorithms, called MCTS-Size and MCTS-Depth , are polynomial in all relevant parameters. Empirical results on extensive realistic circuits and IBM Q Tokyo show that the MCTS-based algorithms can reduce the size (respectively, depth) overhead by, on average, 66% (respectively, 84%) when compared with t ∣ket⟩ \left| {\mathrm{ket}} \right\rangle ∣ket⟩ , an industrial-level compiler.
We give a quantum algorithm for stochastic 222-player games. Their game trees are the expectiminimax trees of classical game search: mmm adversarial layers alternate with mmm chance layers, every node has degdegdeg children, and the leaf values lie in an interval of length NNN. The algorithm estimates the value of the game to root mean square error εεε with O ⁣(KD degD4 Nε D4Dlog⁡(degNε)4D),D=2m O\!\left( K^{D}\, deg^{\frac{D}{4}} \, \frac{N}ε \, D^{4D} \log\left( \frac{deg N}ε \right)^{4D} \right), \qquad D = 2m O(KDdeg4D​εN​D4Dlog(εdegN​)4D),D=2m queries to the leaf values, where KKK is an absolute constant. If we treat the depth DDD as a constant as is sometimes done in the literature, the bound is O~(degm/2ε−1)\widetilde O(deg^{m/2}ε^{-1})O(degm/2ε−1) against the classical O~(degmε−2)\widetilde O(deg^{m}ε^{-2})O(degmε−2). So the quadratic speedup in the branching factor known for adversarial trees and the quadratic speedup in the accuracy known for a single expectation both survive when we nest one inside the other. We use a derandomised multilevel Monte Carlo estimator for chance layers and a coherent binary search for adversarial layers. The composition is done by introducing a conversion between root-mean-square and uniform error guarantees, and a composition to nest it with quantum mean estimation. We state the algorithm for stochastic games, but it is valid for the following conditions: the value of a parent is a Lipschitz function of the values of its children and the value at a chance vertex is linear in its children, however the speedup is preserved only if the deterministic step has a quantum subroutine with sublinear query complexity.
Over the past decades, the operations research community has developed numerous effective optimization algorithms, yet quantum computing is emerging as a new computational paradigm with the potential to approach optimization problems more efficiently. Grover's algorithm offers a provable speedup for combinatorial optimization, but its circuit depth places it beyond current noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices. A more accessible alternative is to reformulate the optimization problem as a quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) problem and apply quantum annealing; however, practical problem instances remain out of reach for existing hardware. We introduce AtomTreeSearch, a hybrid classical-quantum algorithm that integrates a quantum subroutine natively implementable on neutral-atom quantum computers within a Monte Carlo Tree Search framework. At each expansion step, a maximal weighted independent set of candidate actions provided by the quantum processor is selected, and these collective actions are performed to obtain a child node. We benchmark our method on the Traveling Salesman Problem, with instances of up to 60 cities on random Euclidean instances and up to 100 cities on TSPLIB instances. Our hybrid algorithm generally matches or outperforms both OR-Tools and simulated annealing on these instances, and we find that the quantum subroutine produces more diverse and higher-quality branches compared to classical alternate subroutines. These results suggest that carefully scoped quantum subroutines embedded in classical search frameworks represent a promising path toward near-term quantum utility in combinatorial optimization.