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arXiv:2609.10731

Consensus in Effective Model Inference for Disordered Ising Systems

Ashveed Ashraf

Published Sep 9, 2026• 0 citations
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Abstract

When independent learners are trained on data from the same disordered system, finite and noisy samples can lead them to different descriptions of the underlying physics. We quantify the reproducibility of such descriptions through consensus, the degree of agreement among independently trained models. In a teacher-student framework on the two-dimensional random-bond Ising model, an ensemble of students each infers a single uniform effective coupling from a finite set of equilibrium configurations drawn from one quenched bond realization. Aggregating the inferred couplings across students and realizations yields the consensus distribution, whose width quantifies the agreement among learners. The variance of this distribution separates exactly into a finite-sampling contribution, bounded below by inverse of Fisher information, and a quenched-disorder contribution. Sum of these two variance is minimized near critical region, so the consensus width has a minimum near the pseudocritical temperature that sharpens with increasing disorder. The two minima arise from different mechanisms: the sampling term inherits the critical peak of the Fisher information, while the disorder term is temperature-independent at leading order and acquires its critical minimum only at fourth order in the disorder strength, through the covariance between the linear and cubic responses to the bond disorder. Because the students fit a uniform coupling to a heterogeneous lattice, the inferred coupling also carries a misspecification bias that survives in the infinite-data limit. This bias displaces the minimum of the mean-squared error above the consensus minimum, so the temperature at which independent learners agree most closely is not the temperature at which their shared answer is most faithful.

DOI
10.48550/arxiv.2609.10731

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When independent learners are trained on data from the same disordered system, finite and noisy samples can lead them to different descriptions of the underlying physics. We quantify the reproducibility of such descriptions through consensus, the degree of agreement among independently trained models. In a teacher-student framework on the two-dimensional random-bond Ising model, an ensemble of students each infers a single uniform effective coupling from a finite set of equilibrium configurations drawn from one quenched bond realization. Aggregating the inferred couplings across students and realizations yields the consensus distribution, whose width quantifies the agreement among learners. The variance of this distribution separates exactly into a finite-sampling contribution, bounded below by inverse of Fisher information, and a quenched-disorder contribution. Sum of these two variance is minimized near critical region, so the consensus width has a minimum near the pseudocritical temperature that sharpens with increasing disorder. The two minima arise from different mechanisms: the sampling term inherits the critical peak of the Fisher information, while the disorder term is temperature-independent at leading order and acquires its critical minimum only at fourth order in the disorder strength, through the covariance between the linear and cubic responses to the bond disorder. Because the students fit a uniform coupling to a heterogeneous lattice, the inferred coupling also carries a misspecification bias that survives in the infinite-data limit. This bias displaces the minimum of the mean-squared error above the consensus minimum, so the temperature at which independent learners agree most closely is not the temperature at which their shared answer is most faithful.
Statistical physics extracts macroscopic laws by averaging over the many microscopic degrees of freedom of a system. Disordered systems demand a second and far harder average, one over the quenched randomness itself. The classic analytical routes, the replica and cavity methods, become uncontrolled outside mean-field or tree-like limits, and conventional numerical algorithms like parallel tempering require expensive, independent equilibration for every disorder realization. In this work, we introduce a universal neural variational framework that amortizes inference across the disorder ensemble, eliminating both the need for per-instance Markov chain equilibration and the cost of retraining instance-specific variational ansatzes. Built on an encoder-decoder Transformer architecture, after training once, it produces an explicit approximation to the Boltzmann distribution given previously unseen disorder realizations without further optimization. We validate this framework on 2D Edwards-Anderson models, and apply it to the random-bond Ising model, successfully capturing the Binder cumulant crossings near the Nishimori multicritical point. These results shift the object of variational inference from the single instance to the disorder ensemble, opening a route to frustrated many-body systems where instance-by-instance computation is prohibitive.
We consider the sample to sample fluctuations that occur in the value of a thermodynamic quantity PPP in an ensemble of finite systems with quenched disorder, at equilibrium. The variance of PPP, VP{V}_{P}VP​, which characterizes these fluctuations is calculated as a function of the systems' linear size lll, focusing on the behavior at the critical point. The specific model considered is the bond-disordered Ashkin-Teller model on a square lattice [Phys. Rev. 64, 178 (1943)]. Using extensive Monte Carlo simulations, several bond-disordered Ashkin-Teller models were examined, including the bond-disordered Ising model and the bond-disordered four-state Potts model. It was found that far from criticality all thermodynamic quantities which were examined (energy, magnetization, specific heat, susceptibility) are strongly self-averaging, that is ${V}_{P}\ensuremath{\sim}{l}^{\ensuremath{-}d}$ (where d=2d=2d=2 is the dimension). At criticality though, the results indicate that the magnetization MMM and the susceptibility $\ensuremath{\chi}$ are non-self-averaging, i.e., $\frac{{V}_{\ensuremath{\chi}}}{{\ensuremath{\chi}}^{2}}, \frac{{V}_{M}}{{M}^{2}}\ensuremath{\nrightarrow}0$. The energy EEE at criticality is clearly weakly self-averaging, that is ${V}_{E}\ensuremath{\sim}{l}^{\ensuremath{-}{y}_{v}}$ with 0<yv<d0<{y}_{v}<d0<yv​<d. Less conclusively, and possibly only as a transient behavior, the specific heat too is found to be weakly self-averaging. A phenomenological theory of finite size scaling for disordered systems is developed, based on physical considerations similar to those leading to the Harris criterion. Its main prediction is that when the specific heat exponent $\ensuremath{\alpha}<0$ ($\ensuremath{\alpha}$ of the disordered model) then, for a quantity PPP which scales as ${l}^{\ensuremath{\rho}}$ at criticality, its variance VP{V}_{P}VP​ will scale asymptotically as ${l}^{2\ensuremath{\rho}+\frac{\ensuremath{\alpha}}{\ensuremath{\nu}}}$. The theory is not applicable in the asymptotic limit ($l\ensuremath{\rightarrow}\ensuremath{\infty}$) to the bond-disordered Ashkin-Teller model where $\frac{\ensuremath{\alpha}}{\ensuremath{\nu}}={0}_{+}$. Nonetheless in the accessible range of lattice sizes we found very good agreement between the theory and the data for ${V}_{\ensuremath{\chi}}$ and VE{V}_{E}VE​. The theory may also be compatible with the data for the variance of the magnetization VM{V}_{M}VM​ and the variance of the specific heat VC{V}_{C}VC​, but evidence for this is less convincing.
To demonstrate the application of computational physics in modern statistical physics, this paper investigates the critical behavior of a finite-size ferromagnetic system based on the two-dimensional square-lattice Ising model.A nearest-neighbor Ising Hamiltonian is constructed, and periodic boundary conditions are adopted to reduce finite-boundary effects.The Metropolis Monte Carlo algorithm is used to sample spin configurations at different temperatures, while energy, magnetization, specific heat, magnetic susceptibility and Binder cumulant are calculated to describe the transition from an ordered state to a disordered state.The simulation results show that the system exhibits clear long-range order at low temperatures, where the order parameter remains high.As temperature increases, thermal fluctuations become stronger, magnetization decreases rapidly, and the system gradually evolves into a disordered state.The specific heat curve shows a pronounced peak at approximately (T = 2.269), while the susceptibility peak shifts slightly toward the high-temperature side due to finite-size effects and the discrete temperature grid.Overall, the simulated critical region is consistent with the theoretical critical temperature of the two-dimensional square-lattice Ising model.Spin-configuration analysis further reveals enhanced fluctuations and domain reconstruction near the critical region.In addition, a thermalization criterion and an extended sampling test for L = 48 near the critical region are added to examine the influence of finite sampling and equilibration.These results indicate that Monte Carlo simulation of the two-dimensional Ising model can effectively reproduce continuous phase transition, critical fluctuation and finite-size effects, providing a basic computational case for understanding critical phenomena in complex systems and data-driven physical analysis.
The equilibrium ensemble approach to disordered systems is used to investigate the critical behavior of the two-dimensional Ising model in the presence of quenched random site dilution. The numerical transfer matrix technique in semi-infinite strips of finite width, together with phenomenological renormalization and conformal invariance, is particularly suited to putting the equilibrium ensemble approach to work. A method by which to extract with great precision the critical temperature of the model is proposed and applied. A more systematic finite-size scaling analysis than in previous numerical studies has been performed. A parallel investigation, along the lines of the two main scenarios currently under discussion, namely, the logarithmic corrections scenario (with critical exponents fixed in the Ising universality class) versus the weak universality scenario (critical exponents varying with the degree of disorder), is carried out. In interpreting our data, maximum care is constantly taken to be open to both possibilities. A critical discussion shows that an unambiguous discrimination between the two scenarios is still not possible on the basis of the available finite-size data.
The random bond Ising model in two dimensions is considered in terms of a random matrix representation. A generalization of this approach enables us to study an N → ∞ limit and the corresponding 1/N expansion. With g as the strength of the random bond fluctuations, the critical temperature T c of the pure system is split into two critical temperatures T ± = T c (1 ± c 0 exp[− c 1 / g ]) with a new phase for T − < T < T + . The specific heat, for instance, grows logarithmically (or double logarithmically in a crossover region near T ± ) with|1− T / T c | up to a bound of the order 1/ g .
We investigate and contrast, via the Wang-Landau (WL) algorithm, the effects of quenched bond randomness on the self-averaging properties of two Ising spin models in 2d. The random bond version of the superantiferromagnetic (SAF) square model with nearest- and next-nearest-neighbor competing interactions and the corresponding version of the simple ferromagnetic Ising model are studied. We find that, the random bond SAF model shows a strong violation of self-averaging, much stronger than that observed in the case of the random bond Ising model. Our analysis of the asymptotic scaling behavior of the variance of the distribution of the sample-dependent pseudocritical temperatures is found to be consistent with the renormalization group prediction of Aharony and Harris. Using this alternative approach, we find estimates of the correlation length exponent ννν in agreement with results obtained from the usual finite-size scaling (FSS) methodology.