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arXiv:2603.25039

Uncertainty Quantification for Quantum Computing

Ryan Bennink, Olena Burkovska, Konstantin Pieper, Jorge Ramirez, Elaine Wong

quant-phcs.LGSubmitted Mar 26, 2026• Announced Mar 27, 2026• 0 citations
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Abstract

This review is designed to introduce mathematicians and computational scientists to quantum computing (QC) through the lens of uncertainty quantification (UQ) by presenting a mathematically rigorous and accessible narrative for understanding how noise and intrinsic randomness shape quantum computational outcomes in the language of mathematics. By grounding quantum computation in statistical inference, we highlight how mathematical tools such as probabilistic modeling, stochastic analysis, Bayesian inference, and sensitivity analysis, can directly address error propagation and reliability challenges in today's quantum devices. We also connect these methods to key scientific priorities in the field, including scalable uncertainty-aware algorithms and characterization of correlated errors. The purpose is to narrow the conceptual divide between applied mathematics, scientific computing and quantum information sciences, demonstrating how mathematically rooted UQ methodologies can guide validation, error mitigation, and principled algorithm design for emerging quantum technologies, in order to address challenges and opportunities present in modern-day quantum high performance and fault-tolerant quantum computing paradigms.

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This review is designed to introduce mathematicians and computational scientists to quantum computing (QC) through the lens of uncertainty quantification (UQ) by presenting a mathematically rigorous and accessible narrative for understanding how noise and intrinsic randomness shape quantum computational outcomes in the language of mathematics. By grounding quantum computation in statistical inference, we highlight how mathematical tools such as probabilistic modeling, stochastic analysis, Bayesian inference, and sensitivity analysis, can directly address error propagation and reliability challenges in today's quantum devices. We also connect these methods to key scientific priorities in the field, including scalable uncertainty-aware algorithms and characterization of correlated errors. The purpose is to narrow the conceptual divide between applied mathematics, scientific computing and quantum information sciences, demonstrating how mathematically rooted UQ methodologies can guide validation, error mitigation, and principled algorithm design for emerging quantum technologies, in order to address challenges and opportunities present in modern-day quantum high performance and fault-tolerant quantum computing paradigms.
Quantum computing promises revolutionary advancements across various fields, yet its realization hinges critically on the reliability of its hardware. Unlike classical computing, quantum systems are exceptionally sensitive to environmental noise and prone to errors, leading to significant challenges in maintaining coherence and accurate computation. This research presents a formal model designed to rigorously analyze the reliability of quantum computing hardware. The model incorporates probabilistic representations of quantum gates and qubits, alongside noise models that capture various sources of error, and evaluates the effectiveness of fault-tolerance techniques. The core of the model is a simulation framework allowing for comprehensive evaluation of the impact of these factors on the overall system performance. This approach provides a quantitative basis for designing more robust quantum computing systems and optimizing operational strategies, moving beyond intuitive estimations and towards a scientifically grounded understanding of quantum hardware reliability. The model is presented with detailed formulas and mathematical notations, offering a precise and verifiable framework for analysis.
Abstract: Quantum computing and quantum information science constitute a rapidly evolving discipline at the intersection of physics, computer science, and information theory. This paper presents a systematic analysis of the conceptual foundations, theoretical frameworks, and technological challenges shaping the field. The discussion begins with the quantum-mechanical principles underpinning computation and information, followed by a rigorous framework analysis of key models such as qubits, entanglement, and quantum channels. The central problem addressed is the fragility of quantum states under noise and the corresponding need for reliable methods of computation, communication, and security. Methodologically, the paper integrates formal analysis of entropy and channel capacities with the study of error-correcting codes, fault-tolerant architectures, and emerging hardware platforms. The results synthesize advances in quantum algorithms, quantum error correction, quantum cryptography, and hybrid quantum–classical systems, highlighting both their theoretical limits and engineering realizations. The impact is evaluated through implications for secure communication, computational complexity, and future architectures, alongside ethical and societal reflections. By bridging foundational theory with practical challenges, the book offers a comprehensive resource that informs both academic inquiry and technological development. Its neutral, integrative perspective emphasizes not only the purpose of advancing reliable quantum technologies but also their broader implications for science, security, and society. Keywords Quantum computing, quantum information theory, quantum algorithms, quantum error correction, fault-tolerant quantum computation, quantum cryptography, quantum key distribution, post-quantum cryptography, entanglement, quantum channels, von Neumann entropy, quantum capacity, hybrid quantum–classical systems, quantum machine learning, quantum networks, emerging quantum architectures
This paper introduces a novel approach to uncertainty quantification (UQ) by drawing inspiration from quantum mechanics. Traditional UQ methods, particularly Monte Carlo simulations, often struggle with the curse of dimensionality, exhibiting diminishing returns as the number of variables increases. We propose a framework utilizing simulated quantum measurement processes to efficiently explore probability spaces, aiming for significant improvements in both speed and accuracy. The core concept involves translating probabilistic programming logic into a sequence of simulated quantum measurements, mimicking the principles of superposition and entanglement. This approach moves beyond the limitations of classical sampling techniques and potentially unlocks exponential speedups in complex system modeling. The presented methodology focuses on a new programming language and runtime designed specifically for this quantum-inspired probabilistic programming paradigm. We explore the theoretical underpinnings and outline the key components of this system, highlighting the advantages it offers over conventional UQ methods. The design prioritizes computational efficiency and scalability, crucial aspects for tackling real-world problems characterized by high-dimensional uncertainty. The ultimate goal is to develop a robust and practical tool for accurately assessing risk and making informed decisions in complex, uncertain environments.
The predictive simulation of molecules and materials has had a broad and significant impact. It nevertheless remains constrained by the cost of accurately treating electronic correlation, excited states, and complex energy landscapes. Quantum computing offers a fundamentally different computational paradigm in which quantum states are encoded and manipulated directly rather than approximated on classical hardware. Here we discuss where this approach may provide a genuine scientific advantage in chemistry, materials science, and biochemistry. Promising directions include the high-accuracy treatment of correlated active spaces, improved excited-state simulations, and accelerated exploration of combinatorial structure spaces. The central challenge is therefore not qubit scaling alone, but demonstrably chemically meaningful gains in predictive reliability. We argue that near-term value is most likely to come from disciplined workflow integration rather than wholesale replacement of classical methods. Noisy physical devices, error-mitigated utility experiments, early fault-tolerant devices, and fully fault-tolerant quantum computers offer different scientific prospects, and claims of usefulness must be tied to the specific regime being discussed. Quantum computing will become scientifically valuable when it demonstrably reduces uncertainty in computed energies, rates, spectra, or materials stability after the full costs of state preparation, measurement, error handling, and coupling to classical simulation are included.
Quantum computing represents a transformative paradigm shift in computational capabilities by leveraging quantum mechanical principles such as superposition and entanglement. This article explores the intersection of quantum computing with statistical methods, focusing on key areas such as quantum error correction (QEC), statistical inference, data interpretation, and optimization of quantum algorithms. Quantum error correction is essential due to quantum systems' susceptibility to errors, requiring advanced statistical techniques for error detection and mitigation without collapsing quantum states. Statistical inference and data interpretation in quantum computing face challenges posed by the probabilistic nature of quantum data, necessitating novel statistical frameworks for accurate analysis and prediction. Optimizing quantum algorithms involves refining existing algorithms like Shor's and Grover's, developing new algorithms through statistical principles, and analyzing performance using statistical methods. Integration of classical and quantum approaches enhances algorithmic efficiency and reliability. Furthermore, quantum machine learning (QML) and big data analytics capitalize on quantum computing's potential to process vast datasets efficiently, underpinned by statistical methodologies for algorithm optimization and data management. Despite challenges such as quantum hardware limitations and noise interference, ongoing research aims to advance statistical frameworks, optimize algorithms, and explore new applications, ensuring statistical methods remain pivotal in harnessing the full potential of quantum computing across diverse domains. Keywords: Quantum Computing; Statistical Methods, Quantum; Error Correction; Quantum Machine Learning; Big Data Analytics
Quantum Bayesian Inference (QBI) offers a promising approach to quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models, particularly in the face of adversarial examples. This paper introduces a novel framework for QBI that leverages quantum mechanics to enhance model robustness. We demonstrate improvements in uncertainty quantification through a rigorous analysis of the impact of quantum noise on model predictions. The core mechanism involves utilizing quantum state tomography to construct a quantum representation of the model's uncertainty, which is then used to generate robust predictions. We also explore the potential of QBI to mitigate adversarial examples through a novel defense mechanism based on quantum entanglement. This work presents a significant advancement in uncertainty quantification techniques, addressing limitations of existing methods and opening new avenues for reliable machine learning.