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arXiv:2603.04524

Towards Predictive Quantum Algorithmic Performance: Modeling Time-Correlated Noise at Scale

Amit Jamadagni, Gregory Quiroz, Eugene Dumitrescu

quant-phSubmitted Mar 4, 2026• Announced Mar 6, 2026• 0 citations
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Abstract

Combining tensor network techniques with quantum autoregressive moving average models, we quantify the effects of time-correlated noise on quantum algorithms and predict their performance at scale. As a paradigmatic test case, we examine the quantum Fourier transformation. Building on our first technical result, which shows how stochastic tensor network calculations capture frequency correlations, our second result is the revelation that infidelity exponents (scaling from diffuse, to superdiffuse) are determined by the spectral features of the noise. This numerical result rigorously quantifies the common belief that the temporal correlation scale is a key predictive feature of noise's deleterious impact on multi-qubit circuits. To highlight prospects for predicting algorithmic performance, our third result quantifies how infidelity scaling exponents -- which are fits determined by training data at moderate scales (40-80 qubits) -- can be used to predict more computationally expensive simulation at larger scales (100-128 qubits). Aside from highlighting the scalability of our methods, this workflow feeds into our last result, which is the proposal of predictive benchmarking protocols connecting simulations to experiments. Our work paves the way for large-scale algorithmic simulations and performance prediction under hardware-relevant noise conditions informed by realistic device characteristics.

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13 pages, 4 figures, 1 table

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Combining tensor network techniques with quantum autoregressive moving average models, we quantify the effects of time-correlated noise on quantum algorithms and predict their performance at scale. As a paradigmatic test case, we examine the quantum Fourier transformation. Building on our first technical result, which shows how stochastic tensor network calculations capture frequency correlations, our second result is the revelation that infidelity exponents (scaling from diffuse, to superdiffuse) are determined by the spectral features of the noise. This numerical result rigorously quantifies the common belief that the temporal correlation scale is a key predictive feature of noise's deleterious impact on multi-qubit circuits. To highlight prospects for predicting algorithmic performance, our third result quantifies how infidelity scaling exponents -- which are fits determined by training data at moderate scales (40-80 qubits) -- can be used to predict more computationally expensive simulation at larger scales (100-128 qubits). Aside from highlighting the scalability of our methods, this workflow feeds into our last result, which is the proposal of predictive benchmarking protocols connecting simulations to experiments. Our work paves the way for large-scale algorithmic simulations and performance prediction under hardware-relevant noise conditions informed by realistic device characteristics.
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Understanding the effects of noise on quantum computations is fundamental to the development of quantum hardware and quantum algorithms. Simulation tools are essential for quantitatively modelling these effects, yet unless artificial restrictions are placed on the circuit or noise model, accurately modelling noisy quantum computations is an extremely challenging task due to unfavourable scaling of required computational resources. Tensor network methods offer a viable solution for simulating computations that generate limited entanglement or that have noise models which yield low gate fidelities. However, in the most interesting regime of entangling circuits (with high gate fidelities) relevant for error correction and mitigation tensor network simulations often achieve poor accuracy. In this work we develop and numerically test a method for significantly improving the accuracy of tensor network simulations of noisy quantum circuits in the low-noise (i.e. high gate-fidelity) regime. Our method comes with the advantages that it (i) allows for the simulation of quantum circuits under generic types of noise model, (ii) is especially tailored to the low-noise regime, and (iii) retains the benefits of tensor network scaling, enabling efficient simulations of large numbers of qubits. We build upon the observations that adding extra noise to a quantum circuit makes it easier to simulate with tensor networks, and that the results can later be reliably extrapolated back to the low-noise regime of interest. These observations form the basis for a novel emulation technique that we call non-zero noise extrapolation, in analogy to the quantum error mitigation technique of zero-noise extrapolation.
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Noise is the fundamental challenge to quantum computation. Large-scale quantum computers will overcome this challenge with fault-tolerant architectures that leverage quantum error correction. This thesis introduces and investigates a scalable noise characterisation protocol suited to this key context. First, we introduce this protocol by building upon averaged circuit eigenvalue sampling (ACES), a framework for noise characterisation experiments that simultaneously estimates the Pauli error probabilities of all gates in a Clifford circuit and captures averaged spatial correlations between gates implemented simultaneously in the layers of the circuit. We demonstrate the scalability and performance of our protocol through circuit-level numerical simulations of the entire noise characterisation procedure. Then we demonstrate in circuit-level numerical simulation that this protocol is practically capable of calibrating a fast correlated matching decoder, enabling noise-aware decoding. We find that noise-aware decoding increases the error suppression factor of the code, leading to reductions in the logical error rate that increase exponentially with the code distance. Finally, we present several results obtained from experimentally implementing this protocol. We use the noise characterisation results to design an improved syndrome extraction circuit for a heavy hexagon memory that is adapted to the noise characteristics of the quantum device. The model error of our noise characterisation results suggests that the circuit-level Pauli noise model estimated by ACES can describe the essential features of quantum noise. We also operate a heavy hexagon memory and use noise estimates to predict performance and inform decoding. These results demonstrate that Pauli noise estimates can calibrate decoders to enable noise-aware decoding and inform the co-design of quantum error correcting codes, decoders, fault-tolerant circuits, and quantum devices.