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arXiv:2602.15217 · Physical Review Physics Education Research

Do we have a quantum computer? Expert perspectives on current status and future prospects

Liam Doyle, Fargol Seifollahi, Chandralekha Singh

physics.ed-phquant-phSubmitted Feb 16, 2026• Announced Feb 18, 2026• 2 citations
arXivHTMLPDF

Abstract

The rapid growth of quantum information science and technology (QIST) in the 21st century has created both excitement and uncertainty about the field's trajectory. This qualitative study presents perspectives from leading quantum researchers, who are educators, on fundamental questions frequently posed by students, the public, and the media regarding QIST. Through in-depth interviews, we explored several issues related to QIST including the following key areas: the current state of quantum computing in the noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) era and timelines for fault-tolerant quantum computers, the feasibility of personal quantum computers in our pockets, and promising qubit architectures for future development. Our findings reveal diverse yet convergent perspectives on these issues. While experts agree that the current machines with physical qubits that are being built currently should be called quantum computers, most estimated that it will take a decade to build a small fault-tolerant quantum computer, and several decades to achieve scalable systems capable of running Shor's factoring algorithm with quantum advantage. Regarding carrying a quantum computer in the pocket, experts viewed quantum computers as specialized tools that will remain in central locations such as data centers and can be accessed remotely for applications for which they are particularly effective compared to classical computers. Quantum researchers suggested that multiple platforms show promise, with no clear winner emerging. These insights provide valuable guidance for educators, policymakers, and the broader community in establishing realistic expectations for developments in this exciting field. Our findings can provide valuable information for educators to clarify student doubts about these important yet confusing issues related to quantum technologies.

Journal reference
Phys. Rev. Phys. Educ. Res. 22, 010101 (2026)
DOI
10.1103/md6x-pfrr

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The rapid growth of quantum information science and technology (QIST) in the 21st century has created both excitement and uncertainty about the field's trajectory. This qualitative study presents perspectives from leading quantum researchers, who are educators, on fundamental questions frequently posed by students, the public, and the media regarding QIST. Through in-depth interviews, we explored several issues related to QIST including the following key areas: the current state of quantum computing in the noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) era and timelines for fault-tolerant quantum computers, the feasibility of personal quantum computers in our pockets, and promising qubit architectures for future development. Our findings reveal diverse yet convergent perspectives on these issues. While experts agree that the current machines with physical qubits that are being built currently should be called quantum computers, most estimated that it will take a decade to build a small fault-tolerant quantum computer, and several decades to achieve scalable systems capable of running Shor's factoring algorithm with quantum advantage. Regarding carrying a quantum computer in the pocket, experts viewed quantum computers as specialized tools that will remain in central locations such as data centers and can be accessed remotely for applications for which they are particularly effective compared to classical computers. Quantum researchers suggested that multiple platforms show promise, with no clear winner emerging. These insights provide valuable guidance for educators, policymakers, and the broader community in establishing realistic expectations for developments in this exciting field. Our findings can provide valuable information for educators to clarify student doubts about these important yet confusing issues related to quantum technologies.
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Quantum computing represents a paradigm shift in computational capabilities, promising to solve complex problems that remain intractable for classical architectures. Tracing its roots from the theoretical propositions of the 1980s to the Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) era of the present, the field is rapidly transitioning from academic curiosity to industrial reality. This manuscript explores the historical trajectory of quantum computing, examining foundational milestones such as Shor’s and Grover’s algorithms. It evaluates the current state of hardware platforms, including superconducting circuits, trapped ions, and photonic systems, highlighting the persistent challenges of decoherence and quantum error correction. Furthermore, the paper analyzes the future trajectory of the technology, focusing on the race toward large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC) and the critical transition to post-quantum cryptography. By synthesizing current roadmaps and industry projections, this study underscores that while significant technical hurdles remain, the realization of scalable quantum advantage will fundamentally disrupt sectors ranging from drug discovery to global cybersecurity.
Quantum computing has transitioned from a theoretical curiosity to an emerging technological paradigm with demonstrable computational advantages in specific problem domains. This paper presents a comprehensive review of current advances in quantum computing hardware, software, and near-term applications within the Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) era. We examine the architectural evolution of leading quantum platforms, including superconducting, trapped-ion, and photonic systems, analyzing their qubit counts, gate fidelities, and coherence times. The paper evaluates key quantum algorithms Shor's factoring algorithm [1], Grover's search algorithm [2], the Variational Quantum Eigensolver (VQE) [3], and the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) [4] in the context of their practical applicability to real-world problems. We further discuss the milestone of quantum computational advantage demonstrated by Google's Sycamore processor [5] and IBM's ambitious hardware roadmap toward fault-tolerant quantum computing [6]. Our analysis reveals that while universal fault-tolerant quantum computing remains a long-term objective, NISQ-era devices are already yielding valuable results in quantum chemistry simulation, combinatorial optimization, and quantum machine learning. We conclude by identifying the critical challenges—error correction, scalability, and algorithm design that must be addressed to realize the full potential of quantum computing.
A paradigm shift in computation is being brought about by quantum computing, which uses the concepts of quantum mechanics to tackle problems that even the most powerful conventional supercomputers cannot solve. This review provides an in-depth overview of the field, covering everything from basic concepts to the cutting edge. The three fundamental building blocks of quantum processing—the qubit, superposition, and entanglement—are first described.These ideas enable quantum computers to concurrently explore large computational domains. After that, the paper examines the various physical implementations, highlighting the advantages and disadvantages of the top hardware platforms, such as neutral atoms, trapped ions, photonic systems, and superconducting circuits, in terms of coherence and scalability. Shor's method for integer factorization and Grover's algorithm for unstructured search are two examples of groundbreaking quantum algorithms that are highlighted for their potential to achieve exponential and quadratic speedups over their classical counterparts. We also examine how programming languages that bridge the gap between abstract algorithms and physical hardware are being developed, as well as the new quantum software stack. The paper also explores how quantum computing can revolutionize a number of fields, such as machine learning, materials research, medication development, and cryptography. subsequently, we discuss two of the biggest challenges impeding the development of large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computers: the requirement for robust quantum error correction and decoherence. In the end, a view of the current period of Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) and the path towards quantum advantage is presented. Researchers, students, and professionals looking for a comprehensive grasp of this quickly developing and revolutionary topic are expected to find this review to be an invaluable asset.
The rapid advancement of quantum information science and technology (QIST) has generated significant attention from people in academia, industry, and the public. Recent advances in QIST have led to both opportunities and challenges for students and researchers who are curious about the potential of the field amid hype, considering whether their skills are aligned with what the field needs, and contemplating how collaborating with industries may impact their research. This qualitative study presents perspectives from leading quantum researchers who are educators on three critical aspects shaping QIST's development: (1) the impact of hype in the field and strategies for managing expectations, (2) approaches to creating conducive environments that attract students and established researchers from non-physics disciplines, and (3) effective models for fostering university-industry partnerships that can be valuable for students and researchers alike. These aspects, along with several interconnected challenges, were explored through in-depth interviews with quantum educators. Our findings reveal nuanced perspectives on managing the hype cycle and its risks in creating unrealistic expectations. Regarding greater interdisciplinary engagement and attracting more non-physicists to QIST, educators emphasized the need to recognize and leverage existing expertise from other fields while developing educational pathways that meet diverse student backgrounds to prepare them for the QIST workforce. On university-industry partnerships, respondents highlighted successful models, while noting persistent challenges around intellectual property, confidentiality, and differing organizational goals. These insights provide valuable guidance for educators, policymakers, and industry leaders working to build a sustainable quantum workforce while maintaining realistic expectations about the field's trajectory.
The paper provides an exploration of quantum computing, emphasizing its potential and challenges. It begins with the fundamentals of quantum mechanics and differentiates between classical and quantum computing, focusing on concepts like qubits, superposition, and entanglement. The authors identify the existing limitations in practical quantum applications, particularly within the Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) era, where issues like noise in quantum circuits hinder scalability and reliability. The paper addresses the need for advancements in hardware, error correction techniques, and practical algorithms tailored for current technological constraints. Additionally, it discusses the implications of quantum computing on cryptography, underscoring the vulnerability of traditional cryptographic methods and the urgency for postquantum cryptographic solutions. The methodology involves literature review, expert consultations, and bibliometric analysis to gauge global research trends in quantum computing. The paper highlights crucial research gaps, particularly in the development of scalable quantum algorithms suitable for near-future applications.