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arXiv:2510.18208

Near-optimal Prediction Error Estimation for Quantum Machine Learning Models

Qiuhao Chen, Yuling Jiao, Yinan Li, Xiliang Lu, Jerry Zhijian Yang

Published Oct 21, 2025• 0 citations
arXivHTMLPDF

Abstract

Understanding the theoretical capabilities and limitations of quantum machine learning (QML) models to solve machine learning tasks is crucial to advancing both quantum software and hardware developments. Similarly to the classical setting, the performance of QML models can be significantly affected by the limited access to the underlying data set. Previous studies have focused on proving generalization error bounds for any QML models trained on a limited finite training set. We focus on the optimal QML models obtained by training them on a finite training set and establish a tight prediction error bound in terms of the number of trainable gates and the size of training sets. To achieve this, we derive covering number upper bounds and packing number lower bounds for the data re-uploading QML models and linear QML models, respectively, which may be of independent interest. We support our theoretical findings by numerically simulating the QML strategies for function approximation and quantum phase recognition.

DOI
10.48550/arxiv.2510.18208

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The use of quantum computing for machine learning is among the most exciting prospective applications of quantum technologies. However, machine learning tasks where data is provided can be considerably different than commonly studied computational tasks. In this work, we show that some problems that are classically hard to compute can be easily predicted by classical machines learning from data. Using rigorous prediction error bounds as a foundation, we develop a methodology for assessing potential quantum advantage in learning tasks. The bounds are tight asymptotically and empirically predictive for a wide range of learning models. These constructions explain numerical results showing that with the help of data, classical machine learning models can be competitive with quantum models even if they are tailored to quantum problems. We then propose a projected quantum model that provides a simple and rigorous quantum speed-up for a learning problem in the fault-tolerant regime. For near-term implementations, we demonstrate a significant prediction advantage over some classical models on engineered data sets designed to demonstrate a maximal quantum advantage in one of the largest numerical tests for gate-based quantum machine learning to date, up to 30 qubits.