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arXiv:2508.14011

Brace for impact: ECDLP challenges for quantum cryptanalysis

Pierre-Luc Dallaire-Demers, William Doyle, Timothy Foo

Published Aug 19, 2025• 0 citations
arXivHTMLPDF

Abstract

Precise suites of benchmarks are required to assess the progress of early fault-tolerant quantum computers at economically impactful applications such as cryptanalysis. Appropriate challenges exist for factoring but those for elliptic curve cryptography are either too sparse or inadequate for standard applications of Shor's algorithm. We introduce a difficulty-graded suite of elliptic curve discrete logarithm (ECDLP) challenges that use Bitcoin's curve y^2=x^3+7 mod p while incrementally lowering the prime field from 256 down to 6 bits. For each bit-length, we provide the prime, the prime group order, and two deterministic nothing-up-my-sleeve (NUMS) points in compressed SEC1 form. All challenges are generated by a deterministic, reproducible procedure, and no private challenge scalar is chosen in advance. We calibrate classical cost against Pollard's rho records and quantum cost against resource estimation results for Shor's algorithm. We compile Shor's ECDLP circuit to logical counts and map them to physical resources for various parameters of the surface code, the repetition cat code and the LDPC cat codes. Under explicit and testable assumptions on physical error rates, code distances, and non-Clifford supply, our scenarios place the full 256-bit instance within a 2027--2033 window. The challenge ladder thus offers a transparent ruler to track fault-tolerant progress on a cryptanalytic target of immediate relevance, and it motivates proactive migration of digital assets to post-quantum signatures.

DOI
10.48550/arxiv.2508.14011

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Precise suites of benchmarks are required to assess the progress of early fault-tolerant quantum computers at economically impactful applications such as cryptanalysis. Appropriate challenges exist for factoring but those for elliptic curve cryptography are either too sparse or inadequate for standard applications of Shor's algorithm. We introduce a difficulty-graded suite of elliptic curve discrete logarithm (ECDLP) challenges that use Bitcoin's curve y^2=x^3+7 mod p while incrementally lowering the prime field from 256 down to 6 bits. For each bit-length, we provide the prime, the prime group order, and two deterministic nothing-up-my-sleeve (NUMS) points in compressed SEC1 form. All challenges are generated by a deterministic, reproducible procedure, and no private challenge scalar is chosen in advance. We calibrate classical cost against Pollard's rho records and quantum cost against resource estimation results for Shor's algorithm. We compile Shor's ECDLP circuit to logical counts and map them to physical resources for various parameters of the surface code, the repetition cat code and the LDPC cat codes. Under explicit and testable assumptions on physical error rates, code distances, and non-Clifford supply, our scenarios place the full 256-bit instance within a 2027--2033 window. The challenge ladder thus offers a transparent ruler to track fault-tolerant progress on a cryptanalytic target of immediate relevance, and it motivates proactive migration of digital assets to post-quantum signatures.
Quantum algorithms can break factoring and discrete logarithm based cryptography and weaken symmetric cryptography and hash functions. In order to estimate the real-world impact of these attacks, apart from tracking the development of fault-tolerant quantum computers it is important to have an estimate of the resources needed to implement these quantum attacks. For attacking symmetric cryptography and hash functions, generic quantum attacks are substantially less powerful than they are for today's public-key cryptography. So security will degrade gradually as quantum computing resources increase. At present, there is a substantial resource overhead due to the cost of fault-tolerant quantum error correction. We provide estimates of this overhead using state-of-the-art methods in quantum fault-tolerance. We use state-of-the-art optimized circuits, though further improvements in their implementation would also reduce the resources needed to implement these attacks. To bound the potential impact of further circuit optimizations we provide cost estimates assuming trivial-cost implementations of these functions. These figures indicate the effective bit-strength of the various symmetric schemes and hash functions based on what we know today (and with various assumptions on the quantum hardware), and frame the various potential improvements that should continue to be tracked. As an example, we also look at the implications for Bitcoin's proof-of-work system. For many of the currently used asymmetric (public-key) cryptographic schemes based on RSA and elliptic curve discrete logarithms, we again provide cost estimates based on the latest advances in cryptanalysis, circuit compilation and quantum fault-tolerance theory. These allow, for example, a direct comparison of the quantum vulnerability of RSA and elliptic curve cryptography for a fixed classical bit strength.
Shor's algorithm represents the main threat of quantum computers to cryptography. In order to precisely understand its feasibility, many authors have worked towards reducing its costs, either at the logical level (assuming a fault-tolerant architecture), or at the physical level (taking into account the constraints of envisioned hardware). In particular, recent works by Chevignard et al. (CRYPTO 2024) and Gidney (arXiv 2025) used improved arithmetic to significantly reduce the qubit cost of factoring RSA public keys. Even more recently, Babbush et al. (arXiv 2026) improved the cost of computing elliptic curve discrete logarithms, with a reduction of a factor 2 to 3 in gate count and qubit count compared to a previous work by Litinski (arXiv 2023). Their result relies on optimized point addition circuits on elliptic curves over prime fields. However they did not reveal their logical quantum circuits, relying instead on a zero-knowledge proof. In this paper, we detail a quantum logical circuit architecture which gives similar results as Babbush et al., with a slightly higher number of qubits (around 1.5% increase) and a slightly smaller Toffoli gate count (between 6.5% and 10% reduction) for the curve secp256k1. We also give gate counts for a generic variant of the circuit, which is valid for any prime field.
The Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithm Problem (ECDLP) is a fundamental problem in cryptography, and reducing the resource requirements of quantum algorithms for solving ECDLP is an important goal. In this work, we present a space-efficient quantum algorithm for solving the ECDLP over prime fields, achieving an implementation with only 3n+6⌊log⁡2n⌋+O(1)3n+6\lfloor \log_2 n \rfloor+O(1)3n+6⌊log2​n⌋+O(1) logical qubits and 1056n3/log⁡2n+O(n2)1056n^3/\log_2 n+O(n^2)1056n3/log2​n+O(n2) Toffoli gates, where nnn is the bit-length of the prime. For a 256-bit prime-field curve, our construction requires only 835 logical qubits, reducing the previous best estimates of 1098 and 1175 logical qubits by Chevignard et al. [EUROCRYPT 2026] and Babbush et al. [ArXiv Preprint 2026], respectively. The key to our improvement is a new space-efficient reversible modular inversion circuit, which addresses the dominant space bottleneck in affine-coordinate point addition. Starting from the extended Euclidean algorithm (EEA), we refine the register-sharing technique of Proos and Zalka by introducing length registers and location-controlled arithmetic to compactly store and update intermediate variables. We further optimize the reversible update procedures and construct the corresponding controlled arithmetic circuits, resulting in a modular inversion circuit implemented by only 2n+6⌊log⁡2n⌋+O(1)2n+6\lfloor \log_2 n \rfloor+O(1)2n+6⌊log2​n⌋+O(1) logical qubits and 229n2+O(nlog⁡2n)229n^2+O(n\log_2 n)229n2+O(nlog2​n) Toffoli gates. This modular inversion circuit together with mid-circuit measurements and classical feed-forward operations provides a space-efficient controlled affine point-addition circuit and a complete implementation of Shor's algorithm for ECDLP.
Quantum algorithms can break factoring and discrete logarithm based cryptography and weaken symmetric cryptography and hash functions. In order to estimate the real-world impact of these attacks, apart from tracking the development of fault-tolerant quantum computers it is important to have an estimate of the resources needed to implement these quantum attacks. For attacking symmetric cryptography and hash functions, generic quantum attacks are substantially less powerful than they are for today's public-key cryptography. So security will degrade gradually as quantum computing resources increase. At present, there is a substantial resource overhead due to the cost of fault-tolerant quantum error correction. We provide estimates of this overhead using state-of-the-art methods in quantum fault-tolerance. We use state-of-the-art optimized circuits, though further improvements in their implementation would also reduce the resources needed to implement these attacks. To bound the potential impact of further circuit optimizations we provide cost estimates assuming trivial-cost implementations of these functions. These figures indicate the effective bit-strength of the various symmetric schemes and hash functions based on what we know today (and with various assumptions on the quantum hardware), and frame the various potential improvements that should continue to be tracked. As an example, we also look at the implications for Bitcoin's proof-of-work system. For many of the currently used asymmetric (public-key) cryptographic schemes based on RSA and elliptic curve discrete logarithms, we again provide cost estimates based on the latest advances in cryptanalysis, circuit compilation and quantum fault-tolerance theory. These allow, for example, a direct comparison of the quantum vulnerability of RSA and elliptic curve cryptography for a fixed classical bit strength.
Solving the Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithm Problem (ECDLP) is critical for evaluating the quantum security of widely deployed elliptic-curve cryptosystems. Consequently, minimizing the number of logical qubits required to execute this algorithm is a key object. In implementations of Shor's algorithm, the space complexity is largely dictated by the modular inversion operation during point addition. Starting from the extended Euclidean algorithm (EEA), we refine the register-sharing method of Proos and Zalka and propose a space-efficient reversible modular inversion algorithm. We use length registers together with location-controlled arithmetic to store the intermediate variables in a compact form throughout the computation. We then optimize the stepwise update rules and give concrete circuit constructions for the resulting controlled arithmetic components. This leads to a modular inversion circuit that uses 3n+4⌊log⁡2n⌋+O(1)3n + 4\lfloor \log_2 n \rfloor + O(1)3n+4⌊log2​n⌋+O(1) logical qubits and 204n2log⁡2n+O(n2)204n^2\log_2 n + O(n^2)204n2log2​n+O(n2) Toffoli gates. By inserting this modular inversion component into the controlled affine point-addition circuit, we obtain a space-efficient algorithm for the ECDLP with 5n+4⌊log⁡2n⌋+O(1)5n + 4\lfloor \log_2 n \rfloor + O(1)5n+4⌊log2​n⌋+O(1) qubits and O(n3)O(n^3)O(n3) Toffoli gates. In particular, for a 256-bit prime-field curve, our estimate reduces the logical-qubit count to 1333, compared with 2124 in the previous low-width implementation of Häner et al.
We perform logical and physical resource estimation for computing binary elliptic curve discrete logarithms using Shor's algorithm on fault-tolerant quantum computers. We adopt a windowed approach to design our circuit implementation of the algorithm, which comprises repeated applications of elliptic curve point addition operations and table look-ups. Unlike previous work, the point addition operation is implemented exactly, including all exceptional cases. We provide exact logical gate and qubit counts of our algorithm for cryptographically relevant binary field sizes. Furthermore, we estimate the hardware footprint and runtime of our algorithm executed on surface-code matter-based quantum computers with a baseline architecture, where logical qubits have nearest-neighbor connectivity, and on a surface-code photonic fusion-based quantum computer with an active-volume architecture, which enjoys a logarithmic number of non-local connections between logical qubits. At 10% threshold and compared to a baseline device with a1μs1μ s1μscode cycle, our algorithm runs$\gtrsim$2-20 times faster, depending on the operating regime of the hardware and over all considered field sizes, on a photonic active-volume device.