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arXiv:2507.12835 · IEEE International Conference on Quantum Computing and Engineering (QCE)

Quantum-Enhanced Reinforcement Learning with LSTM Forecasting Signals for Optimizing Fintech Trading Decisions

Yen-Ku Liu, Yi Pan, Pei-Fan Lu, Yun‐Cheng Tsai, Samuel Yen-Chi Chen

Published Aug 30, 2025• 3 citations
arXivHTMLPDF

Abstract

Financial trading environments are characterized by high volatility, numerous macroeconomic signals, and dynamically shifting market regimes, where traditional reinforcement learning methods often fail to deliver breakthrough performance. In this study, we design a reinforcement learning framework tailored for financial systems by integrating quantum circuits. We compare (1) the performance of classical A3C versus quantum A3C algorithms, and (2) the impact of incorporating LSTM-based predictions of the following week's economic trends on learning outcomes. The experimental framework adopts a custom Gymnasium-compatible trading environment, simulating discrete trading actions and evaluating rewards based on portfolio feedback. Experimental results show that quantum models—especially when combined with predictive signals—demonstrate superior performance and stability under noisy financial conditions, even with shallow quantum circuit depth.

DOI
10.1109/qce65121.2025.10325

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Financial trading environments are characterized by high volatility, numerous macroeconomic signals, and dynamically shifting market regimes, where traditional reinforcement learning methods often fail to deliver breakthrough performance. In this study, we design a reinforcement learning framework tailored for financial systems by integrating quantum circuits. We compare (1) the performance of classical A3C versus quantum A3C algorithms, and (2) the impact of incorporating LSTM-based predictions of the following week's economic trends on learning outcomes. The experimental framework adopts a custom Gymnasium-compatible trading environment, simulating discrete trading actions and evaluating rewards based on portfolio feedback. Experimental results show that quantum models—especially when combined with predictive signals—demonstrate superior performance and stability under noisy financial conditions, even with shallow quantum circuit depth.
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Financial market prediction and optimal trading strategy development remain challenging due to market complexity and volatility. Our research in quantum finance and reinforcement learning for decision-making demonstrates the approach of quantum-classical hybrid algorithms to tackling real-world finan-cial challenges. In this respect, we corroborate the concept with rigorous backtesting and validate the framework's performance under realistic market conditions, by including fixed transaction cost per trade. This paper introduces a Quantum Attention Deep Q-Network (QADQN) approach to address these challenges through quantum-enhanced reinforcement learning. Our QADQN architecture uses a variational quantum circuit inside a traditional deep Q-learning framework to take advantage of possible quantum advantages in decision-making. We gauge the QADQN agent's performance on historical data from major market indices, including the S&P 500. We evaluate the agent's learning process by examining its reward accumulation and the effectiveness of its experience replay mechanism. Our empirical results demonstrate the QADQN's superior performance, achieving better risk-adjusted returns with Sortino ratios of 1.28 and 1.19 for non-overlapping and overlapping test periods respectively, indicating effective downside risk management.
We propose a hybrid quantum-classical reinforcement learning framework for sector rotation in the Taiwan stock market. Our system employs Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) as the backbone algorithm and integrates both classical architectures (LSTM, Transformer) and quantum-enhanced models (QNN, QRWKV, QASA) as policy and value networks. An automated feature engineering pipeline extracts financial indicators from capital share data to ensure consistent model input across all configurations. Empirical backtesting reveals a key finding: although quantum-enhanced models consistently achieve higher training rewards, they underperform classical models in real-world investment metrics such as cumulative return and Sharpe ratio. This discrepancy highlights a core challenge in applying reinforcement learning to financial domains-namely, the mismatch between proxy reward signals and true investment objectives. Our analysis suggests that current reward designs may incentivize overfitting to short-term volatility rather than optimizing risk-adjusted returns. This issue is compounded by the inherent expressiveness and optimization instability of quantum circuits under Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) constraints. We discuss the implications of this reward-performance gap and propose directions for future improvement, including reward shaping, model regularization, and validation-based early stopping. Our work offers a reproducible benchmark and critical insights into the practical challenges of deploying quantum reinforcement learning in real-world finance.
The convergence of quantum-inspired neural networks and deep reinforcement learning offers a promising avenue for financial trading. We implemented a trading agent for USD/TWD by integrating Quantum Long Short-Term Memory (QLSTM) for short-term trend prediction with Quantum Asynchronous Advantage Actor-Critic (QA3C), a quantum-enhanced variant of the classical A3C. Trained on data from 2000-01-01 to 2025-04-30 (80\% training, 20\% testing), the long-only agent achieves 11.87\% return over around 5 years with 0.92\% max drawdown, outperforming several currency ETFs. We detail state design (QLSTM features and indicators), reward function for trend-following/risk control, and multi-core training. Results show hybrid models yield competitive FX trading performance. Implications include QLSTM's effectiveness for small-profit trades with tight risk and future enhancements. Key hyperparameters: QLSTM sequence length$=4,QA3Cworkers4, QA3C workers4,QA3Cworkers=$8. Limitations: classical quantum simulation and simplified strategy. \footnote{The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not represent the views of Wells Fargo. This article is for informational purposes only. Nothing contained in this article should be construed as investment advice. Wells Fargo makes no express or implied warranties and expressly disclaims all legal, tax, and accounting implications related to this article.
Cryptocurrency markets are known for their high volatility and complex price dynamics, which make accurate prediction and analysis extremely challenging. Traditional financial forecasting models and classical machine learning algorithms often struggle to capture the nonlinear and rapidly changing patterns present in cryptocurrency datasets. In recent years, advancements in artificial intelligence and quantum computing have opened new possibilities for analyzing complex financial data and improving prediction accuracy.This study proposes a quantum computing–based framework for cryptocurrency market prediction by integrating quantum machine learning techniques with financial time-series analysis. The proposed model utilizes quantum computing concepts such as quantum feature mapping, variational quantum circuits, and quantum recurrent neural networks to analyze cryptocurrency market data. Historical datasets containing information about cryptocurrency prices, trading volume, and market capitalization are used to train and evaluate the model.The proposed system aims to identify hidden patterns in cryptocurrency market trends and generate accurate predictions for future price movements and market volatility. The performance of the quantum-based model is compared with classical deep learning models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) networks. Experimental results indicate that the quantum machine learning approach achieves improved prediction accuracy and lower forecasting error compared to traditional deep learning models.By leveraging the computational advantages of quantum computing, the proposed framework provides a powerful approach for analyzing highly complex financial datasets. The results demonstrate that quantum machine learning techniques have the potential to significantly enhance cryptocurrency market analysis, enabling more accurate forecasting and better decision-making for investors and financial analysts.
Accurate financial volatility forecasting is crucial but challenged by the non-linear, highly correlated nature of market data. Recently, quantum computing has emerged as a promising paradigm for solving complex high-dimensional sampling problems. To harness this, we propose a novel hybrid framework combining the temporal representation power of classical neural networks with the distribution-learning capabilities of quantum models. Specifically, we integrate a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network with a Quantum Circuit Born Machine (QCBM). The LSTM extracts dynamic features, while the QCBM acts as a learnable generative prior modeling complex market distributions to guide forecasting. Evaluated on 5-minute high-frequency data from the SSE Composite and CSI 300 indices, our model significantly outperforms a classical LSTM baseline across MSE, RMSE, and QLIKE metrics. Furthermore, by introducing a stochastic ``Drop-Prior" mechanism during training, the LSTM implicitly distills structured information from the quantum prior. This establishes a pragmatic paradigm of ``quantum-assisted training with classical-efficient inference", whereby the model retains its quantum-enhanced accuracy even when the quantum module is entirely disabled during deployment. This demonstrates a practical pathway for leveraging quantum computing to enhance classical models without real-time quantum inference latency.