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arXiv:2505.12873 · Quantum Science and Technology

Quantum algorithms for causal estimands

Rishi S Goel, Casey R. Myers, Sally Shrapnel

Published Nov 18, 2025• 0 citations
arXivHTMLPDF

Abstract

Abstract Modern machine learning (ML) methods typically fail to adequately capture causal information. Consequently, such models do not handle data distributional shifts, are vulnerable to adversarial examples, and often learn spurious correlations (Schölkopf and von Kügelgen 2022 (arXiv:2204.00607) [cs.AI]). Causal ML, or causal inference, aims to solve these issues by estimating the expected outcome of counterfactual events, using observational and/or interventional data, where causal relationships are typically depicted as directed acyclic graphs. It is an open question as to whether these causal algorithms provide opportunities for quantum enhancement. In this paper we consider a recently developed family of non-parametric, continuous causal estimators and derive quantum algorithms for these tasks. Kernel evaluation and large matrix inversion are critical sub-routines of these classical algorithms, which makes them particularly amenable to a quantum treatment. Unlike other quantum ML algorithms, closed form solutions for the estimators exist, negating the need for gradient evaluation and variational learning. We describe several new hybrid quantum–classical algorithms and show that uniform consistency of the estimators is retained. Furthermore, if one is satisfied with a quantum state output that is proportional to the true causal estimand, then these algorithms inherit the exponential complexity advantages given by quantum linear system solvers.

DOI
10.1088/2058-9565/ae20b8

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In this thesis, I present several results on quantum statistical inference in the following two directions. Firstly, I demonstrate that quantum algorithms can be applied to enhance the computing and training of Gaussian processes (GPs), a powerful model widely used in classical statistical inference and supervised machine learning. A crucial component of the quantum GP algorithm is solving linear systems with quantum computers, for which I present a novel algorithm that achieves a provable advantage over previously known methods. I will also explicitly address the task of encoding the classical data into a quantum state for machine learning applications. I then apply the quantum enhanced GPs to Bayesian deep learning and present an experimental demonstration on contemporary hardware and simulators. Secondly, I look into the notion of quantum causality and apply it to inferring spatial and temporal quantum correlations, and present an analytical toolkit for causal inference in quantum data. I will also make the connection between causality and quantum communications, and present a general bound for the quantum capacity of noisy communication channels.
Quantum computers acting as ML accelerators have attracted considerable interest as a promising avenue for addressing the limitations of classical computing confronted with solving complex, high-dimensional problems and handling large data sets. The most exciting aspect of quantum computing lies in its quantum advantage via techniques such as quantum parallelism, superposition, and entanglement which allows not only for rapid data processing, but also a means to resolve complex optimization problems beyond the capacity of classical algorithms. Nevertheless, the usage of quantum computing in machine learning is still a fledgling domain, with challenges concerning quantum noise, hardware restrictions, and algorithmic development. In particular, this research is concerned with the development of and study on hybrid quantum-classical algorithms that target to improve ML models in terms of computational capabilities by making use of the best of both worlds. To address this, researchers are developing hybrid algorithms that leverage the strengths of quantum computing for specific tasks, like optimization and pattern recognition, while still relying on classical computing for more flexible and larger-scale processing, ultimately achieving more efficient machine learning systems that can handle large datasets and complex problem-solving more effectively. It includes potential hybrid approaches like quantum-enhanced optimization algorithms, quantum neural networks, and quantum support vector machines, and examines how such algorithms can be used for practical ML problems including data classification, regression and clustering. Furthermore, the paper proposes that hybrid quantum algorithms offer several advantages over their classical counterparts, such as faster convergence rates, higher accuracy in high-dimensional spaces, and improved handling of non-linear and complex problem landscapes. Key advancements in the area of data processing speed and efficiency in problem-solving with and without quantum in the machine learning workflow are also highlighted in the research through comparative analysis and simulation studies. Lastly, the paper concludes by outlining the obstacles yet to be surmounted and the opportunities that lie ahead for hybrid quantum-classical algorithms, such as further improvement of quantum hardware and error mitigation methods, as well as the design of new algorithmic paradigms that seamlessly integrates the classical and quantum computing spaces.
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This dissertation presents a study of quantum algorithms for problems that can be posed as matrix function tasks. In Chapter 1 we demonstrate a simple unifying framework for implementing of smooth functions of matrices on a quantum computer. This framework captures a variety of problems that can be solved by evaluating properties of some function of a matrix, and we identify speedups over classical algorithms for some problem classes. The analysis combines ideas from the classical theory of function approximation with the quantum algorithmic primitive of implementing linear combinations of unitary operators. In Chapter 2 we continue this study by looking at the role of sparsity of input matrices in constructing efficient quantum algorithms. We show that classically pre-processing an input matrix by spectral sparsification can be profitable for quantum Hamiltonian simulation algorithms, without compromising the simulation error or complexity. Such preprocessing incurs a one time cost linear in the size of the matrix, but can be exploited to exponentially speed up subsequent subroutines such as inversion. In Chapter 3, we give an application of this theory of matrix functions to the problem of estimating the Renyi entropy of an unknown quantum state. We combine matrix function techniques with mixed state quantum computation in the one-clean qubit model, and are able to bound of the expected runtime of our algorithm in terms of the unknown target quantity. In addition to the theme of analysing the complexity of our algorithms, we also identify instances that are of practical relevance, leading us to some problems of machine learning. In Chapter 4 we investigate kernel based learning methods using random features. We work with the QRAM input model suitable for big data, and show how matrix functions and the quantum Fourier transform can be used to devise a quantum algorithm for sampling random features that are optimised for given input data and choice of kernel. We obtain a potential exponential speedup over the best known classical algorithm even without explicit assumptions of sparsity or low rank. Finally in Chapter 5 we consider the technique of beamsearch decoding used in natural language processing. We work in the query model, and show how quantum search with advice can be used to construct a quantum search decoder that can find the optimal parse (which may for instance be a best translation, or text-to-speech transcript) at least quadratically faster than the best known classical algorithms, and obtain super-quadratic speedups in the expected runtime.
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