Quantum Monte Carlo integration (QMCI) provides a quadratic speed-up over its classical counterpart, and its applications have been investigated in various fields, including finance. This paper considers its application to risk aggregation, one of the most important numerical tasks in financial risk management. Risk aggregation combines several risk variables and quantifies the total amount of risk, taking into account the correlation among them. For this task, there exists a useful tool called copula, with which the joint distribution can be generated from marginal distributions with a flexible correlation structure. Classically, the copula-based method utilizes sampling of risk variables. However, this procedure is not directly applicable to the quantum setting, where sampled values are not stored as classical data, and thus no efficient quantum algorithm is known. In this paper, we introduce a quantum algorithm for copula-based risk aggregation that is compatible with QMCI. In our algorithm, we first estimate each marginal distribution as a series of orthogonal functions, where the coefficients can be calculated with QMCI. Then, by plugging the marginal distributions into the copula and obtaining the joint distribution, we estimate risk measures using QMCI again. With this algorithm, nearly quadratic quantum speed-up can be obtained for sufficiently smooth marginal distributions.
Quantum Monte Carlo integration (QMCI) provides a quadratic speed-up over its classical counterpart, and its applications have been investigated in various fields, including finance. This paper considers its application to risk aggregation, one of the most important numerical tasks in financial risk management. Risk aggregation combines several risk variables and quantifies the total amount of risk, taking into account the correlation among them. For this task, there exists a useful tool called copula, with which the joint distribution can be generated from marginal distributions with a flexible correlation structure. Classically, the copula-based method utilizes sampling of risk variables. However, this procedure is not directly applicable to the quantum setting, where sampled values are not stored as classical data, and thus no efficient quantum algorithm is known. In this paper, we introduce a quantum algorithm for copula-based risk aggregation that is compatible with QMCI. In our algorithm, we first estimate each marginal distribution as a series of orthogonal functions, where the coefficients can be calculated with QMCI. Then, by plugging the marginal distributions into the copula and obtaining the joint distribution, we estimate risk measures using QMCI again. With this algorithm, nearly quadratic quantum speed-up can be obtained for sufficiently smooth marginal distributions.
Modern quantitative risk management relies on an adequate modeling of the tail dependence and a possibly accurate quantification of risk measures, like Value at Risk (VaR), at high confidence levels like 1 in 100 or even 1 in 2000. Quantum computing makes such a quantification quadratically more efficient than the Monte Carlo method; see (Woerner and Egger, 2018) and, for a broader perspective, (Orús et al., 2018). An important element of the risk analysis toolbox is copula, see (Jouanin et al., 2004) regarding financial applications. However, to the best knowledge of the author, no quantum computing implementation for sampling from a risk modeling-relevant copula in explicit form has been published so far. Our focus here is implementation of simple yet powerful copula models, capable of a satisfactory capturing the joint tail behaviour of the modelled risk factors. This paper deals with a few simple copula families, including Multivariate B11 (MB11) copula family, presented in (Milek, 2014). We will show that this copula family is suitable for the risk aggregation as it is exceptionally able to reproduce tail dependence structures; see (Embrechts et al., 2016) for a relevant benchmark as well as necessary and sufficient conditions regarding the ultimate feasible bivariate tail dependence structures. It turns out that such a discretized copula can be expressed using simple constructs present in the quantum computing: binary fraction expansion format, comonotone/independent random variables, controlled gates, and convex combinations, and is therefore suitable for a quantum computer implementation. This paper presents design behind the quantum implementation circuits, numerical and symbolic simulation results, and experimental validation on IBM quantum computer. The paper proposes also a generic method for quantum implementation of any discretized copula.
Quantum algorithms for Monte Carlo integration (QMCI), which are based on quantum amplitude estimation (QAE), provide quadratic speed-up compared with classical counterparts, and are therefore widely investigated, along with applications to industries such as finance. One typical feature of problems in finance is high dimensionality, or, in other words, the necessity to create numerous random numbers (RNs) to calculate the integrand. In such a situation, the original implementation of QMCI, in which states encoding the probability distributions of the RNs are generated on different quantum registers, requires a large number of qubits. In this poster, we propose an implementation of QMCI, in which pseudo-random numbers (PRNs) are sequentially generated on one register, and therefore the qubit number is tremendously reduced. Moreover, we show that, when the integrand has the form such that contributions from different RNs are separable into different terms, we can also achieve time complexity reduction with respect to the number of dimensions by combining the nested QAE and use of PRNs.
Monte Carlo (MC) simulations are widely used in financial risk management, from estimating value-at-risk (VaR) to pricing over-the-counter derivatives. However, they come at a significant computational cost due to the number of scenarios required for convergence. If a probability distribution is available, Quantum Amplitude Estimation (QAE) algorithms can provide a quadratic speed-up in measuring its properties as compared to their classical counterparts. Recent studies have explored the calculation of common risk measures and the optimisation of QAE algorithms by initialising the input quantum states with pre-computed probability distributions. If such distributions are not available in closed form, however, they need to be generated numerically, and the associated computational cost may limit the quantum advantage. In this paper, we bypass this challenge by incorporating scenario generation – i.e. simulation of the risk factor evolution over time to generate probability distributions – into the quantum computation; we refer to this process as Quantum MC (QMC) simulations. Specifically, we assemble quantum circuits that implement stochastic models for equity (geometric Brownian motion), interest rate (mean-reversion models), and credit (structural, reduced-form, and rating migration credit models) risk factors. We then integrate these models with QAE to provide end-to-end examples for both market and credit risk use cases.
Copulas are mathematical tools for modeling joint probability distributions. In the past 60 years they have become an essential analysis tool on classical computers in various fields. The recent finding that copulas can be expressed as maximally entangled quantum states has revealed a promising approach to practical quantum advantages: performing tasks faster, requiring less memory, or, as we show, yielding better predictions. Studying the scalability of this quantum approach as both the precision and the number of modeled variables increase is crucial for its adoption in real-world applications. In this paper, we successfully apply a Quantum Circuit Born Machine (QCBM) based approach to modeling 3- and 4-variable copulas on trapped ion quantum computers. We study the training of QCBMs with different levels of precision and circuit design on a simulator and a state-of-the-art trapped ion quantum computer. We observe decreased training efficacy due to the increased complexity in parameter optimization as the models scale up. To address this challenge, we introduce an annealing-inspired strategy that dramatically improves the training results. In our end-to-end tests, various configurations of the quantum models make a comparable or better prediction in risk aggregation tasks than the standard classical models.
Quantum Monte Carlo integration (QMCI), a quantum algorithm for calculating expectations that provides a quadratic speed-up compared to its classical counterpart, is now attracting increasing interest in the context of its industrial and scientific applications. In this paper, we propose the first application of QMCI to solving McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations (MVSDEs), a nonlinear class of SDEs whose drift and diffusion coefficients depend on the law μt of the solution Xt —appearing in fields such as finance and fluid mechanics. We focus on the problem setting where the coefficients depend on μt through expectations of some functions E[φk(Xt)] , and the goal is to compute the expectation of a function E[ϕ(XT)] at a terminal time T . We devise a quantum algorithm that leverages QMCI to compute these expectations, combined with a high-order time discretization method for SDEs and extrapolation of the expectations in time. The proposed algorithm estimates E[ϕ(XT)] with accuracy ϵ , making O(1/ϵ1+2/p) queries to the quantum circuit for time evolution over one step, where p∈(1,2] is the weak order of the SDE discretization method. This demonstrates the speed-up over the well-known classical algorithm called the particle method with complexity of O(1/ϵ3) . We conduct numerical demonstrations of our quantum algorithm applied to examples of MVSDEs, with some parts emulated classically, and observe that the accuracy and complexity behave as expected.
Monte Carlo methods use random sampling to estimate numerical quantities which are hard to compute deterministically. One important example is the use in statistical physics of rapidly mixing Markov chains to approximately compute partition functions. In this work, we describe a quantum algorithm which can accelerate Monte Carlo methods in a very general setting. The algorithm estimates the expected output value of an arbitrary randomized or quantum subroutine with bounded variance, achieving a near-quadratic speedup over the best possible classical algorithm. Combining the algorithm with the use of quantum walks gives a quantum speedup of the fastest known classical algorithms with rigorous performance bounds for computing partition functions, which use multiple-stage Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. The quantum algorithm can also be used to estimate the total variation distance between probability distributions efficiently.