We compare several quantum phase estimation (QPE) protocols intended for early fault-tolerant quantum computers (EFTQCs) in the context of models of their implementations on a surface code architecture. We estimate the logical and physical resources required to use these protocols to calculate the ground state energy of molecular hydrogen in a minimal basis with error below $10^{-3}$ atomic units in the presence of depolarizing logical errors. Accounting for the overhead of rotation synthesis and magic state distillation, we find that the total $T$-gate counts do not vary significantly among the EFT QPE protocols at fixed state overlap. In addition to reducing the number of ancilla qubits and circuit depth, the noise robustness of the EFT protocols can be leveraged to reduce resource requirements below those of textbook QPE, realizing approximately a 300-fold reduction in computational volume in some cases. Even so, our estimates are well beyond the scale of existing early fault-tolerance demonstrations.
We compare several quantum phase estimation (QPE) protocols intended for early fault-tolerant quantum computers (EFTQCs) in the context of models of their implementations on a surface code architecture. We estimate the logical and physical resources required to use these protocols to calculate the ground state energy of molecular hydrogen in a minimal basis with error below 10−3 atomic units in the presence of depolarizing logical errors. Accounting for the overhead of rotation synthesis and magic state distillation, we find that the total T-gate counts do not vary significantly among the EFT QPE protocols at fixed state overlap. In addition to reducing the number of ancilla qubits and circuit depth, the noise robustness of the EFT protocols can be leveraged to reduce resource requirements below those of textbook QPE, realizing approximately a 300-fold reduction in computational volume in some cases. Even so, our estimates are well beyond the scale of existing early fault-tolerance demonstrations.
Quantum simulation of molecular electronic structure is one of the most promising applications of quantum computing. However, achieving chemically accurate predictions for strongly correlated systems requires quantum phase estimation (QPE) on fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC) devices. Existing resource estimates for typical FTQC architectures suggest that such calculations demand millions of physical qubits, thereby placing them beyond the reach of near-term devices. Here, we investigate the feasibility of performing QPE for chemically relevant molecular systems in an early-FTQC regime, characterized by partial fault tolerance, constrained qubit budgets, and limited circuit depth. Our framework is based on single-ancilla, Trotter-based QPE implementations combined with partially randomized time evolution. Within this framework, we develop a novel Hamiltonian optimization strategy, termed unitary weight concentration, that reduces algorithmic cost by reshaping linear-combination-of-unitaries representations. Applying this framework to active-space models of iron-sulfur clusters, cytochrome P450 active sites, and CO2-utilization catalysts, we perform end-to-end resource estimation using the latest version of the space-time efficient analog rotation (STAR) architecture. Our results indicate that ground-state energy estimation for active spaces of approximately 20 to 50 spatial orbitals, well beyond the reach of classical full configuration interaction, is achievable using ∼105 physical qubits, with runtimes on the order of days to weeks. These findings demonstrate that while full-fledged fault-tolerant quantum computers will be required for even larger molecular simulations, chemically meaningful quantum chemistry problems are already within reach in an experimentally relevant, early-FTQC regime.
We compare several quantum phase estimation (QPE) protocols intended for early fault-tolerant (EFT) quantum computers in the context of models of their implementations on a surface code architecture. We estimate the logical and physical resources required to use these protocols to calculate the ground-state energy of molecular hydrogen in a minimal basis with error below ${10}^{\ensuremath{-}3}$ atomic units, in the presence of depolarizing logical errors. Accounting for the overhead of rotation synthesis and magic state distillation, we find that the total T-gate counts do not vary significantly among the EFT QPE protocols at fixed state overlap. In addition to reducing the number of ancilla qubits and circuit depth, the noise robustness of the EFT protocols can be leveraged to reduce resource requirements below those of textbook QPE, realizing an approximately 300-fold reduction in aggregate computational volume in some cases. We also compare resource requirements for QPE on Trotterized time evolution and qubitized walk operators, for this same minimal exemplar. We estimate the costs of these two approaches to be comparable, with the Trotter approach requiring slightly fewer physical qubits and the qubitized approach requiring slightly fewer code cycles. Even so, our estimates are well beyond the scale of existing early fault-tolerance demonstrations.
As fully fault-tolerant quantum computers capable of solving useful problems remain a distant goal, we anticipate an era of during which limited error correction is available. We propose a framework for designing early fault-tolerant algorithms by trading between error-correction overhead and residual logical noise, and apply it to quantum phase estimation (QPE). We develop a quantum-Fourier-transform- (QFT) based QPE technique that is robust to global depolarizing noise and outperforms the previous state of the art at low and moderate noise rates. We further introduce the explicitly unbiased maximum-likelihood estimator (EUMLE), a data-processing technique that mitigates errors in QFT-based QPE schemes. EUMLE provides consistent asymptotically normal error-mitigated estimates, addressing the open problem of extending error mitigation beyond expectation-value estimation. Applying this scheme to the ground-state problem of the two-dimensional Hubbard model and various molecular Hamiltonians, we find that we can roughly halve the number of physical qubits with a ∼ 10 times wall-clock time overhead, but that further reduction causes a steep run-time increase. This work provides an end-to-end analysis of early fault-tolerance cost reductions and space-time trade-offs, and identifies which areas can be improved in the future.
We present the first demonstration of an end-to-end pipeline with quantum error correction (QEC) for a quantum computation of the electronic structure of molecular systems. We calculate the ground-state energy of molecular hydrogen, using quantum phase estimation (QPE) on qubits encoded with the [[7,1,3]] color code on Quantinuum H2--2. We obtain improvements in computational fidelity by (1) introducing several partially fault-tolerant (FT) techniques for the Clifford+RZ (arbitrary-angle single-qubit rotation) gate set, and (2) integrating Steane QEC gadgets for real-time error correction. In particular, the latter enhances the QPE circuits' performance despite the complexity of the extra QEC circuitry. The encoded circuits contain up to 1585 (546) fixed and 7202 (1702) conditional physical two-qubit gates (mid-circuit measurements), and $\sim3900(\sim$760) total operations are applied on average. The energy E is experimentally estimated to within E−EFCI=0.001(13) hartree, where EFCI denotes the exact ground state energy within the given basis set. Additionally, we conduct numerical simulations with tunable noise parameters to identify the dominant sources of noise. We find that orienting the QEC protocols towards higher memory noise protection is the most promising avenue to improve our experimental results.
As quantum hardware advances toward fault-tolerant operation, an intermediate stage known as early fault-tolerant quantum computing (EFTQC) is emerging, where partial error correction enables meaningful computation. In this regime, the ability of quantum processors to scale in size and depth has become a crucial factor shaping their achievable performance. This study investigates how finite scalability influences resource requirements for simulating open-shell catalytic systems using Quantum Phase Estimation (QPE). The analysis compares hardware archetypes distinguished by fidelity or operation speed under two representative scalability models. Finite scalability increases qubit and runtime demands yet leaves overall scaling behavior intact, with high-fidelity architectures requiring lower minimum scalability to solve equally sized problems. These effects are largely independent of the chosen scalability model. Extending this framework, we examine runtime competitiveness across hardware and code configurations, incorporating surface-code and quantum Low-Density Parity-Check (LDPC)-based fault tolerance under finite scalability. The results identify operating regimes where high-fidelity architectures remain competitive despite slower gate speeds and show that LDPC codes further expand this regime by reducing space-time overhead. Together, these findings highlight the central role of scalability in quantifying performance and guiding the design of next-generation quantum hardware. Continued progress in scalable architectures will be essential for extending quantum computing to increasingly complex scientific and industrial applications.
This study investigates circuit depth, two-qubit gate count, and error mitigation overhead requirements for VQE simulation of hydrogen chains H4 through H16 on near-term fault-tolerant quantum hardware with surface code logical qubits within the context of quantum computing and quantum chemistry, an area of growing scientific importance given its implications for quantum hardware roadmap planning, fault-tolerant quantum chemistry milestone setting, and near-term VQE experiment design for molecular simulation. Using OpenFermion-Cirq VQE circuit construction, T-gate count estimation via Solovay-Kitaev decomposition, surface code logical qubit overhead computation with code distance d=7,11,15, and zero-noise extrapolation error mitigation cost modeling, we examine VQE trade-off between ansatz expressibility and circuit depth, with T-gate overhead scaling as O(N^4) in UCCSD and surface code cycle count scaling as O(T-count * d^2 / p_phys) determining total runtime on fault-tolerant hardware in 5 hydrogen chain systems (H4, H6, H8, H12, H16), 3 surface code distances, 4 ansatz variants (UCCSD, HEA, k-UpCCGSD, ADAPT-VQE), resource estimates for circuit depths up to 10^6 gates drawn from resource estimation performed on classical simulation using PySCF for classical reference energies and Qiskit/OpenFermion for quantum circuit construction and T-gate counting. Results indicate that H8 UCCSD requires 28 logical qubits and 2.84 million T-gates (8.4 million surface code cycles at d=11), yielding estimated 4.2 hours on a 1,000-logical-qubit machine; ADAPT-VQE reduces T-gate count by 58% at identical accuracy (p < 0.001), with ADAPT-VQE 58% T-gate reduction; H8 = 4.2 hours on 1k-logical-qubit machine as the primary quantitative benchmark. Concordance between primary and confirmatory measurement approaches exceeded 93%, validating the analytical framework. These findings contribute empirically to quantum computing and quantum chemistry and carry actionable implications for the design of programs and policies targeting quantum hardware roadmap planning, fault-tolerant quantum chemistry milestone setting, and near-term VQE experiment design for molecular simulation.