In statistical inference, retrodiction is the act of inferring potential causes in the past based on knowledge of the effects in the present and the dynamics leading to the present. Retrodiction is applicable even when the dynamics is not reversible, and it agrees with the reverse dynamics when it exists, so that retrodiction may be viewed as an extension of inversion, i.e., time-reversal. Recently, an axiomatic definition of retrodiction has been made in a way that is applicable to both classical and quantum probability using ideas from category theory. Almost simultaneously, a framework for information flow in in terms of semicartesian categories has been proposed in the setting of categorical probability theory. Here, we formulate a general definition of retrodiction to add to the information flow axioms in semicartesian categories, thus providing an abstract framework for retrodiction beyond classical and quantum probability theory. More precisely, we extend Bayesian inference, and more generally Jeffrey's probability kinematics, to arbitrary semicartesian categories.
In statistical inference, retrodiction is the act of inferring potential causes in the past based on knowledge of the effects in the present and the dynamics leading to the present. Retrodiction is applicable even when the dynamics is not reversible, and it agrees with the reverse dynamics when it exists, so that retrodiction may be viewed as an extension of inversion, i.e., time-reversal. Recently, an axiomatic definition of retrodiction has been made in a way that is applicable to both classical and quantum probability using ideas from category theory. Almost simultaneously, a framework for information flow in in terms of semicartesian categories has been proposed in the setting of categorical probability theory. Here, we formulate a general definition of retrodiction to add to the information flow axioms in semicartesian categories, thus providing an abstract framework for retrodiction beyond classical and quantum probability theory. More precisely, we extend Bayesian inference, and more generally Jeffrey's probability kinematics, to arbitrary semicartesian categories.
Retrodiction is the act of inferring a cause from its effects, the most common example of which is Bayesian inference. Retrodiction can be defined by its structural process-theoretic properties, which are mathematically captured by category theory. This categorical definition of retrodiction has recently been shown to potentially isolate the Petz recovery map as a unique universal candidate for quantum Bayesian inference. This paper extends these results to the infinite-dimensional setting on von Neumann algebras. In the process, we provide a pedagogical review of the Petz recovery map in infinite dimensions and its relation to the more commonly used expression in the finite-dimensional setting. We formalize the open question as to whether these categorical axioms for retrodiction do in fact uniquely characterize the Petz recovery map. If such a characterization holds, this would show that Bayesian inversion and the Petz recovery map are structural necessities and not simply useful algorithms for classical and quantum inference.
We propose a category-theoretic definition of retrodiction and use it to exhibit a time-reversal symmetry for all quantum channels. We do this by introducing retrodiction families and functors, which capture many intuitive properties that retrodiction should satisfy and are general enough to encompass both classical and quantum theories alike. Classical Bayesian inversion and all rotated and averaged Petz recovery maps define retrodiction families in our sense. However, averaged rotated Petz recovery maps, including the universal recovery map of Junge-Renner-Sutter-Wilde-Winter, do not define retrodiction functors, since they fail to satisfy some compositionality properties. Among all the examples we found of retrodiction families, the original Petz recovery map is the only one that defines a retrodiction functor. In addition, retrodiction functors exhibit an inferential time-reversal symmetry consistent with the standard formulation of quantum theory. The existence of such a retrodiction functor seems to be in stark contrast to the many no-go results on time-reversal symmetry for quantum channels. One of the main reasons is because such works defined time-reversal symmetry on the category of quantum channels alone, whereas we define it on the category of quantum channels and quantum states. This fact further illustrates the importance of a prior in time-reversal symmetry.
Can an agent's predictions reveal whether its reasoning is based on a classical or a quantum model? Using known results on matrix factorizations, here we show that quantum Bayesian retrodiction can produce one-step-ahead forecasts incompatible with every classical Bayesian explanation based on learning about a fixed but unknown sampling law from conditionally independent observations. The separation has a sharp threshold in the number of outcomes: for any measurement with at most four outcomes, the quantum predictions admit a classical realization, irrespective of the prior state and the finite Hilbert-space dimension, whereas a five-outcome measurement on a single qubit already violates an explicit classical bound. This bound holds for arbitrary classical latent states, prior probabilities, and sampling laws, and involves only the agent's initial and updated predictions. Thus, in this setting, quantum Bayesian retrodiction is strictly more expressive than classical Bayesian learning, and this difference can be witnessed without observing or specifying the agent's internal description.
Estimating the state of an open quantum system monitored over time requires incorporating information from past measurements (filtering) and, for improved accuracy, also from future measurements (smoothing). While classical smoothing is well understood within a Bayesian framework, its quantum generalization has been challenging, leading to distinct and seemingly incompatible approaches. In this work, we demonstrate that quantum state smoothing hinges on a uniquely quantum feature: the fundamental dependence of retrodiction on prior correlations. We introduce auxiliary systems into the prior to represent specified correlations formed during preparation and evolution, and formulate quantum state smoothing as extended Bayesian retrodiction. This framework identifies previous approaches as different choices of the extended prior, and naturally extends it to other choices that have not been considered before. We also give an information-theoretic characterization of the choices of prior, in terms of the average entropy of the smoothed states. Our results establish quantum state smoothing as a fundamentally retrodictive process just like classical smoothing, with proper quantum features clearly identified.
Reversibility lies at the heart of physics and information theory, linking entropy, efficiency and information recovery. Yet, definitions of a “reverse process” have been context-specific, relying on physical assumptions rather than a general framework. This thesis develops a universal recipe for reverse processes using Bayesian inference, formalized through Bayes’ rule and the Petz recovery map. We first show how these tools recover conventional notions of reversal while yielding new insights, and justify the Petz transpose as the quantum analog of Bayes’ rule via quasiprobability representations. We then compare Bayesian reversibility with dilation-based approaches, proving their equivalence through the role of correlations. This motivates the notion of tabletop time-reversible processes, special cases where correlations can be neglected with respect to reversal. Beyond the core results, we apply these methods to fluctuation relations, quantum thermal operations, and the Loschmidt paradox, and reflect on implications for the philosophy of time. In sum, Bayesian inference provides a regime-independent foundation for defining and analyzing (ir)reversibility across physics and information theory.
Quantum states over time were introduced, in part, to extend Bayesian probability to quantum theory and have since found applications across diverse areas, ranging from quantum causality and open-system dynamics to tests of macroscopic realism. While axiomatic characterizations of these states exist for Markovian dynamics, a general framework accommodating non-Markovian dynamics is still lacking. Moreover, extending this framework beyond quantum mechanics to general physical theories also remains elusive. In this work, we develop an axiomatic framework for multi-time states within a class of operational probabilistic theories (OPTs) that includes quantum mechanics as a special case. Based on three assumptions---compositionality, reconstructibility, and spatio-temporal marginal consistency---the framework accommodates both Markovian and non-Markovian dynamics, and provides sufficient conditions to certify signaling and temporal memory within OPT. As a concrete application of our OPT framework, we fully characterize the unique multi-time state in boxworld and develop a method for Bayesian retrodiction of physical transformations there. Our general framework is consistent with quantum theory, reproducing several existing results. In the non-Markovian quantum dynamics, we establish a correspondence between multi-time states and the process-matrix framework, and fully characterize the multi-time states compatible with general dynamics. This correspondence also lets us infer quantum causal models from multi-time states, and as a proof of principle, we propose a semidefinite program to infer causal order from quantum multi-time states. These results provide a unified framework for studying spatio-temporal states, causal relations, and Bayesian reasoning within OPTs, with implications for both fundamental and applied research.