In this work, we demonstrate a practical application of noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) algorithms to enhance subroutines in the Black-Litterman (BL) portfolio optimization model. As a proof of concept, we implement a 12-qubit example for selecting 6 assets out of a 12-asset pool. Our approach involves predicting investor views with quantum machine learning (QML) and addressing the subsequent optimization problem using the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE). The solutions obtained from VQE exhibit a high approximation ratio behavior, and consistently outperform several common portfolio models in backtesting over a long period of time. A unique aspect of our VQE scheme is that after the quantum circuit is optimized, only a minimal number of samplings is required to give a high approximation ratio result since the probability distribution should be concentrated on high-quality solutions. We further emphasize the importance of employing only a small number of final samplings in our scheme by comparing the cost with those obtained from an exhaustive search and random sampling. The power of quantum computing can be anticipated when dealing with a larger-size problem due to the linear growth of the required qubit resources with the problem size. This is in contrast to classical computing where the search space grows exponentially with the problem size and would quickly reach the limit of classical computers.
In this work, we demonstrate a practical application of noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) algorithms to enhance subroutines in the Black-Litterman (BL) portfolio optimization model. As a proof of concept, we implement a 12-qubit example for selecting 6 assets out of a 12-asset pool. Our approach involves predicting investor views with quantum machine learning (QML) and addressing the subsequent optimization problem using the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE). The solutions obtained from VQE exhibit a high approximation ratio behavior, and consistently outperform several common portfolio models in backtesting over a long period of time. A unique aspect of our VQE scheme is that after the quantum circuit is optimized, only a minimal number of samplings is required to give a high approximation ratio result since the probability distribution should be concentrated on high-quality solutions. We further emphasize the importance of employing only a small number of final samplings in our scheme by comparing the cost with those obtained from an exhaustive search and random sampling. The power of quantum computing can be anticipated when dealing with a larger-size problem due to the linear growth of the required qubit resources with the problem size. This is in contrast to classical computing where the search space grows exponentially with the problem size and would quickly reach the limit of classical computers.
Solving combinatorial optimization problems using variational quantum algorithms (VQAs) might be a promise application in the NISQ era. However, the limited trainability of VQAs could hinder their scalability to large problem sizes. In this paper, we improve the trainability of variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) by utilizing convex interpolation to solve portfolio optimization. Based on convex interpolation, the location of the ground state can be evaluated by learning the property of a small subset of basis states in the Hilbert space. This enlightens naturally the proposals of the strategies of close-to-solution initialization, regular cost function landscape, and recursive ansatz equilibrium partition. The successfully implementation of a 40-qubit experiment using only 10 superconducting qubits demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposals. Furthermore, the quantum inspiration has also spurred the development of a prototype greedy algorithm. Extensive numerical simulations indicate that the hybridization of VQE and greedy algorithms achieves a mutual complementarity, combining the advantages of both global and local optimization methods. Our proposals can be extended to improve the trainability for solving other large-scale combinatorial optimization problems that are widely used in real applications, paving the way to unleash quantum advantages of NISQ computers in the near future.
In portfolio theory, the investment portfolio optimization problem is one of those problems whose complexity grows exponentially with the number of assets. By backtesting classical and quantum computing algorithms, we can get a sense of how these algorithms might perform in the real world. This work establishes a methodology for backtesting classical and quantum algorithms in equivalent conditions, and uses it to explore four quantum and three classical computing algorithms for portfolio optimization and compares the results. Running 10 000 experiments on equivalent conditions we find that quantum can match or slightly outperform classical results, showing a better escalability trend. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that performs a systematic backtesting comparison of classical and quantum portfolio optimization algorithms. In this work, we also analyze in more detail the variational quantum eigensolver algorithm, applied to solve the portfolio optimization problem, running on simulators and real quantum computers from IBM. The benefits and drawbacks of backtesting are discussed, as well as some of the challenges involved in using real quantum computers of more than 100 qubits. Results show quantum algorithms can be competitive with classical ones, with the advantage of being able to handle a large number of assets in a reasonable time on a future larger quantum computer.
Abstract—Quantum Machine Learning (QML) operating on Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) hardware represents an emerging computational paradigm to address high-dimensional optimization problems that challenge classical Von Neumann supercomputing architectures. By mapping complex feature vectors into exponentially large 2^N Hilbert state spaces via Parameterized Quantum Circuits (PQCs) and Variational Quantum Algorithms (VQAs), QML targets computational advantages in combinatorial optimization, high-dimensional classification, and quantum-enhanced molecular modeling. However, the theoretical promise of NISQ-era variational computing is severely constrained by three fundamental bottlenecks: (1) Barren Plateaus, characterized by the exponential concentration of measure and vanishing variance of cost function gradients; (2) Hardware Decoherece Noise and readout error rates that corrupt quantum state fidelity; and (3) Classical-to-Quantum State Preparation bottlenecks that can erase theoretical computational speedups. This paper delivers an exhaustive, mathematically formal technical investigation and empirical benchmark of QML architectures for high-dimensional optimization. We formalize the Haar-distributed geometric mechanics of barren plateaus under 2-design unitary assumptions, evaluate barren plateau mitigation through shallow local cost operators and layer-by-layer parameter initialization, and contrast Variational Quantum Eigensolvers (VQE) with Quantum Kernel Support Vector Machines (Q-SVM). Furthermore, we construct an empirical benchmarking testbed executing across both state-vector simulators and superconducting quantum backends (IBM Quantum Heron / Eagle architectures), evaluating 127-qubit Hamiltonian optimization and high-dimensional financial portfolio allocation. Our findings demonstrate that while global cost functions suffer exponential gradient decay Var[grad] ~ O(2^-N) across circuit depth d >= 4, local Hamiltonian decomposition maintains trainable variance, achieving a 98.2% ground-state fidelity under zero-noise extrapolation (ZNE) error mitigation. Finally, we formulate open challenges in quantum error mitigation scaling, non-perturbative barren plateau escapes, and quantum data loading efficiency. Index Terms—Quantum Machine Learning (QML), Parameterized Quantum Circuits (PQCs), Variational Quantum Eigensolver (VQE), Barren Plateaus, Quantum Kernel Methods, NISQ Computing, Error Mitigation, Hilbert Space.
Portfolio optimization, a core combinatorial optimization problem in quantitative finance, requires balancing return maximization and risk minimization within discrete asset sets. Classical algorithms often struggle with scalability and local optima traps when handling large-scale asset pools, limiting their practicality in dynamic markets. This study proposes a complete Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) workflow for portfolio optimization, from problem formalization to experimental validation. We first transform the portfolio optimization problem into a Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) framework, then design a parameterized QAOA circuit with adjustable layers to balance expressiveness and noise resilience. We propose a methodology using Qiskit for quantum simulation and classical optimizers for parameter tuning, we propose implementing the algorithm on real-world S&P 500 stock data. We could also analyze the impact of quantum hardware noise and propose mitigation strategies, providing actionable insights for Noisy intermediate-scale quantum computing (NISQ)-era implementations. This work bridges quantum algorithm design with real-world financial applications, offering a theoretical framework for quantum-driven portfolio optimization.
We present a collection of optimizers tuned for usage on Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) devices. Optimizers have a range of applications in quantum computing, including the Variational Quantum Eigensolver (VQE) and Quantum Approximate Optimization (QAOA) algorithms. They are also used for calibration tasks, hyperparameter tuning, in machine learning, etc. We analyze the efficiency and effectiveness of different optimizers in a VQE case study. VQE is a hybrid algorithm, with a classical minimizer step driving the next evaluation on the quantum processor. While most results to date concentrated on tuning the quantum VQE circuit, we show that, in the presence of quantum noise, the classical minimizer step needs to be carefully chosen to obtain correct results. We explore state-of-the-art gradient-free optimizers capable of handling noisy, black-box, cost functions and stress-test them using a quantum circuit simulation environment with noise injection capabilities on individual gates. Our results indicate that specifically tuned optimizers are crucial to obtaining valid science results on NISQ hardware, and will likely remain necessary even for future fault tolerant circuits.
We present a scalable, hardware-aware methodology for extending the Variational Quantum Eigensolver (VQE) to large, realistic Dynamic Portfolio Optimization (DPO) problems. Building on the scaling strategy from our previous work, where we tailored a VQE workflow to both the DPO formulation and the target QPU, we now put forward two significant advances. The first is the implementation of the Ising Sample-based Quantum Configuration Recovery (ISQR) routine, which improves solution quality in Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization problems. The second is the use of the VQE Constrained method to decompose the optimization task, enabling us to handle DPO instances with more variables than the available qubits on current hardware. These advances, which are broadly applicable to other optimization problems, allow us to address a portfolio with a size relevant to the financial industry, consisting of up to 38 assets and covering the full Spanish stock index (IBEX 35). Our results, obtained on a real Quantum Processing Unit (IBM Fez), show that this tailored workflow achieves financial performance on par with classical methods while delivering a broader set of high-quality investment strategies, demonstrating a viable path towards obtaining practical advantage from quantum optimization in real financial applications.