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arXiv:2303.15547

Is there a Moore's law for quantum computing?

Olivier Ezratty

Published Mar 27, 2023• 2 citations
arXivHTMLPDF

Abstract

There is a common wisdom according to which many technologies can progress according to some exponential law like the empirical Moore's law that was validated for over half a century with the growth of transistors number in chipsets. As a still in the making technology with a lot of potential promises, quantum computing is supposed to follow the pack and grow inexorably to maturity. The Holy Grail in that domain is a large quantum computer with thousands of errors corrected logical qubits made themselves of thousands, if not more, of physical qubits. These would enable molecular simulations as well as factoring 2048 RSA bit keys among other use cases taken from the intractable classical computing problems book. How far are we from this? Less than 15 years according to many predictions. We will see in this paper that Moore's empirical law cannot easily be translated to an equivalent in quantum computing. Qubits have various figures of merit that won't progress magically thanks to some new manufacturing technique capacity. However, some equivalents of Moore's law may be at play inside and outside the quantum realm like with quantum computers enabling technologies, cryogeny and control electronics. Algorithms, software tools and engineering also play a key role as enablers of quantum computing progress. While much of quantum computing future outcomes depends on qubit fidelities, it is progressing rather slowly, particularly at scale. We will finally see that other figures of merit will come into play and potentially change the landscape like the quality of computed results and the energetics of quantum computing. Although scientific and technological in nature, this inventory has broad business implications, on investment, education and cybersecurity related decision-making processes.

DOI
10.48550/arxiv.2303.15547

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There is a common wisdom according to which many technologies can progress according to some exponential law like the empirical Moore's law that was validated for over half a century with the growth of transistors number in chipsets. As a still in the making technology with a lot of potential promises, quantum computing is supposed to follow the pack and grow inexorably to maturity. The Holy Grail in that domain is a large quantum computer with thousands of errors corrected logical qubits made themselves of thousands, if not more, of physical qubits. These would enable molecular simulations as well as factoring 2048 RSA bit keys among other use cases taken from the intractable classical computing problems book. How far are we from this? Less than 15 years according to many predictions. We will see in this paper that Moore's empirical law cannot easily be translated to an equivalent in quantum computing. Qubits have various figures of merit that won't progress magically thanks to some new manufacturing technique capacity. However, some equivalents of Moore's law may be at play inside and outside the quantum realm like with quantum computers enabling technologies, cryogeny and control electronics. Algorithms, software tools and engineering also play a key role as enablers of quantum computing progress. While much of quantum computing future outcomes depends on qubit fidelities, it is progressing rather slowly, particularly at scale. We will finally see that other figures of merit will come into play and potentially change the landscape like the quality of computed results and the energetics of quantum computing. Although scientific and technological in nature, this inventory has broad business implications, on investment, education and cybersecurity related decision-making processes.
The first computer originated as an ordinary calculator in 19th century. Subsequently, the rapid evolution of computers began. The massive amount of processing power generated by computer manufacturers has always failed to quench the thirst for speed and computing capacity. If, as Moore's Law states, the number of transistors on a microprocessor continues to double every 18 months, then soon we will find the circuits on a microprocessor being measured on an atomic scale. Today's advanced lithographic techniques can squeeze fraction of micron wide logic gates and wires onto the surface of silicon chips. Thus it can be seen that very soon we will be facing the need to create quantum computers which can harness the power of atoms and molecules to perform memory and processing tasks. Quantum computers have the potential to perform calculations a billion times faster than any silicon-based computer. Also, theories suggest that every physical object, even the universe, is in some sense a quantum computer. If this is the case, then according to Turing's work which says that all computers are functionally equivalent; computers should be able to model every physical process. Scientists have already built basic quantum computers that can perform certain calculations; but a practical quantum computer is still years away. In this paper, we will be discussing about the history, development and the future scope of quantum computing. The pros and cons of this future technology have also been compared and our analysis has been put forth.
Q uantum mechanics has had an enormous technological and societal impact.To grasp this point, it is sufficient to cite the invention of the transistor, perhaps the most remarkable among the countless other applications of quantum mechanics.It is also easy to see the enormous impact of computers on everyday life.The importance of computers is such that it is appropriate to say that we are now living in the information age.This information revolution became possible thanks to the invention of the tran sistor, that is, thanks to the synergy between computer science and quantum physics.Today this synergy offers completely new opportunities and promises exciting advances in both funda mental science and technological application.We are referring here to the fact that quantum mechanics can be used to process and transmit information [1,2].Miniaturization provides us with an intuitive way of under standing why, in the near future, quantum laws will become important for computation.The electronics industry for com puters grows hand-in-hand with the decrease in size of integrated circuits.This miniaturization is necessary to increase computa tional power, that is, the number of floating-point operations per second (flops) a computer can perform.In the 1950's, electronic computers based on vacuum-tube technology were capable of performing approximately 103 floating-point operations per second, while nowadays there exist supercomputers whose power is greater than lOteraflops (1013 flops).As we have remarked, this enormous growth of computational power has been made possi ble owing to progress in m in ia tu riz a tio n , w hich m ay be quantified empirically in Moore's law.This law is the result of a remarkable observation made by Gordon Moore in 1965: the number of transistors on a single integrated-circuit chip doubles approximately every 18 24 months.This exponential growth has not yet saturated and Moore's law is still valid.At the present time the limit is approximately 108 transistors per chip and the typical size of circuit components is of the order of 100 nanometres.Extrapolating Moore's law, one would estimate that around the year 2020 we shall reach the atomic size for storing a single bit of inform atio n .At th a t p o in t, q u a n tu m effects will becom e unavoidably dominant.One should be aware that, besides quantum effects, other fac tors could bring Moore's law to an end.In the first place, there are economic considerations.Indeed, the cost of building fabri cation facilities to m an u factu re chips has also increased exponentially with time.Nevertheless, it is important to under stand the ultimate limitations set by quantum mechanics.Even though we might overcome economic barriers by means of tech nological breakthroughs, quantum physics sets fundamental limitations on the size of the circuit components.The first ques tion under debate is whether it would be more convenient to push References
Moore’s law will cease to be relevant once transistors are the size of electrons. Once this occurs, we will no longer be able to use silicon for technological advancement. However, breakthroughs will continue in the form of a sixth paradigm: a 3D molecular computing model such as quantum comput- ing. Some of the promising areas of quantum computing researched in this study are (i) algorithmic advancements - such as Shor’s, Grover’s, error correction, fault tolerance and other new algorithms; (ii) hardware - such as the quantum system architecture, circuit models, entanglement, superposition and no-cloning qubits; (iii) market segments - such as finance, healthcare, and chemistry; (iv) the supremacy established over classical computing; and (v) areas of applicability. Significant progress has been made in these areas in recent decades, and they have garnered immense interest, attention and the funding required to make good progress.
Moore’s law will cease to be relevant once transistors are the size of electrons. Once this occurs, we will no longer be able to use silicon for technological advancement. However, breakthroughs will continue in the form of a sixth paradigm: a 3D molecular computing model such as quantum comput- ing. Some of the promising areas of quantum computing researched in this study are (i) algorithmic advancements - such as Shor’s, Grover’s, error correction, fault tolerance and other new algorithms; (ii) hardware - such as the quantum system architecture, circuit models, entanglement, superposition and no-cloning qubits; (iii) market segments - such as finance, healthcare, and chemistry; (iv) the supremacy established over classical computing; and (v) areas of applicability. Significant progress has been made in these areas in recent decades, and they have garnered immense interest, attention and the funding required to make good progress.
Quantum computing has emerged as a transformative computational paradigm capable of addressing limitations increasingly encountered by classical computing systems as Moore’s law approaches physical and economic constraints. By leveraging quantum mechanical principles such as superposition, entanglement, and interference, quantum systems offer the potential for significant computational advantages in solving complex problems that are currently infeasible for conventional architectures. This review critically synthesizes recent advances in quantum computing by examining foundational principles, major algorithmic breakthroughs, evolving hardware platforms, and interdisciplinary real-world applications. A structured narrative literature review was conducted using major scientific databases, including PubMed, IEEE Xplore, Nature, ScienceDirect, and arXiv, with emphasis on peer-reviewed studies, landmark foundational research, and major industry developments published between 2018 and 2026. Key findings indicate substantial progress in superconducting, trapped ion, photonic, and topological quantum systems, alongside innovations in algorithms such as Shor’s, Grover’s, variational quantum methods, and quantum machine learning. Despite these advancements, major challenges including decoherence, noise, scalability limitations, and fault-tolerant error correction remain substantial barriers to commercial maturity. Future implications suggest quantum computing may profoundly influence artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, optimization, molecular simulation, and scientific discovery, particularly through hybrid classical-quantum systems and cloud-based democratization. Although practical deployment remains transitional, quantum computing is positioned to become a foundational technology with broad scientific, industrial, and societal implications.
Recent advancements in quantum computing have sparked significant interest due to their potential to revolutionize various fields, from cryptography to optimization problems. This paper reviews recent developments in quantum computing and quantum information theory, focusing on breakthroughs in qubit stability, error correction codes, and quantum algorithm design. Key achievements include the demonstration of quantum supremacy in specific tasks and progress towards scalable quantum processors. Looking forward, the prospects of quantum computing in solving complex computational problems and its implications for cybersecurity and scientific simulations are discussed. The paper concludes with an outlook on the challenges that must be overcome to realize the full potential of quantum technologies in the coming years.