Financial risk management on a neutral atom quantum processor
Lucas Leclerc, Luis Ortiz-Gutiérrez, Sebastián Grijalva, Boris Albrecht, Julia Cline, Vincent E. Elfving, Adrien Signoles, Loïc Henriet, Gianni Del Bimbo, Usman Ayub Sheikh, Maitree Shah, Luc Andrea, Faysal Ishtiaq, Andoni Duarte, Sam Mugel, Irene Cáceres, Michel Kurek, Román Orús, Achraf Seddik, Oumaima Hammammi, Hacene Isselnane, Didier M'tamon
Machine learning models capable of handling the large data sets collected in the financial world can often become black boxes expensive to run. The quantum computing paradigm suggests new optimization techniques that, combined with classical algorithms, may deliver competitive, faster, and more interpretable models. In this paper we propose a quantum-enhanced machine learning solution for the prediction of credit rating downgrades, also known as fallen-angels forecasting in the financial risk management field. We implement this solution on a neutral atom quantum processing unit with up to 60 qubits on a real-life data set. We report performance that is competitive with the state-of-the-art random forest benchmark, whereas our model achieves better interpretability and comparable training times. We examine how to improve performance in the near term, validating our ideas with tensor-networks-based numerical simulations.
Machine learning models capable of handling the large data sets collected in the financial world can often become black boxes expensive to run. The quantum computing paradigm suggests new optimization techniques that, combined with classical algorithms, may deliver competitive, faster, and more interpretable models. In this paper we propose a quantum-enhanced machine learning solution for the prediction of credit rating downgrades, also known as fallen-angels forecasting in the financial risk management field. We implement this solution on a neutral atom quantum processing unit with up to 60 qubits on a real-life data set. We report performance that is competitive with the state-of-the-art random forest benchmark, whereas our model achieves better interpretability and comparable training times. We examine how to improve performance in the near term, validating our ideas with tensor-networks-based numerical simulations.
Abstract Quantum algorithms have the potential to enhance machine learning across a variety of domains and applications. In this work, we show how quantum machine learning can be used to improve financial forecasting. First, we use classical and quantum Determinantal Point Processes to enhance Random Forest models for churn prediction, improving precision by almost 6%. Second, we design quantum neural network architectures with orthogonal and compound layers for credit risk assessment, which match classical performance with significantly fewer parameters. Our results demonstrate that leveraging quantum ideas can effectively enhance the performance of machine learning, both today as quantum-inspired classical ML solutions, and even more in the future, with the advent of better quantum hardware.
Forecasting and managing risk incurring well are major tasks among financial markets that are very volatile, highly interdependent, and with huge streams of data. Unfortunately, these circumstances cannot be handled by conventional computational models due to their inability to work with large data sets and to identify the nonlinear patterns in finance. Quantum computers (QCs) have revolutionized how financial decisions are being made with the new quantum parallelism and excellent optimization algorithms. In this work, Quantum Powered Financial Intelligence (QPFI) System, as a combination of Quantum Machine Learning (QML), Quantum Optimization, and Quantum Monte Carlo Simulations is offered to optimize market forecast and risk estimation. Better pattern detection is realized to predict asset prices using QML models, for example, Variational Quantum Circuits and Quantum Support Vector Machines. Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithms are used for portfolio allocation optimization of risk vs. return tradeoffs and quantum Monte Carlo simulations for speed-up in stress testing and credit risk assessment. Another way fraud detection is helped by QGANs is in detecting any concealed anomalies in transactional data. The suggested hybrid quantum-classical solution is scalable through cloud-based quantum infrastructure, which facilitates pragmatic implementation within financial institutions. Through the presentation of improved accuracy, computational power, and real-time decision-making, this study identifies the prospect of quantum computing to revolutionize risk management and forecasting models in financial institutions. Future research directions involve enhancing hardware stability, regulatory aspects, and practical quantum trials in banking and trading companies.
Quantum computing is poised to revolutionize financial intelligence by offering unprecedented computational power for solving complex problems in portfolio optimization and risk assessment. As financial markets become increasingly data-driven and interconnected, classical computational methods struggle to handle the exponential growth of financial data and the complexity of optimization challenges. Novel quantum algorithms, such as quantum approximate optimization algorithm, variational quantum Eigensolver and quantum enhanced Monte Carlo simulations, offer new ways of asset allocation, risk modelling and predictive analytics. In this chapter, we discuss how quantum computing can be used to optimize portfolio management strategies via efficient solutions to constrained optimization problems and subsequently enhanced risk and return tradeoffs. Furthermore, quantum machine learning techniques improve risk assessment models by providing better credit risk analysis, liquidity risk forecasting, and modeling volatility.
The growing complexity, interdependencies, and rapid fluctuations inherent in modern financial markets create substantial challenges for accurate forecasting, portfolio optimization, and risk management. Conventional machine learning techniques, while powerful, often face limitations in capturing nonlinear relationships and processing high-dimensional datasets efficiently. Quantum machine learning (QML) has emerged as a promising paradigm that leverages quantum computing principles to enhance predictive modeling in finance. This study presents a comprehensive investigation into the application of QML methods—including variational quantum circuits, quantum kernel estimation, and quantum-enhanced support vector machines—for financial time-series prediction and asset price classification. We propose a hybrid quantum-classical framework that integrates quantum feature mapping with classical optimizers to improve model expressiveness and convergence. Empirical experiments are conducted using historical stock market data and synthetic datasets to benchmark QML approaches against established classical models such as long short-term memory networks and gradient boosting machines. The results demonstrate that QML techniques can achieve superior prediction accuracy and lower computational latency under certain data regimes, particularly when dealing with small-to-medium-sized datasets and high feature correlations. Additionally, the study examines scalability considerations, hardware constraints of near-term quantum devices, and the interpretability of quantum model outputs in financial decision-making contexts. The findings underscore the transformative potential of quantum machine learning as an innovative tool for advancing predictive analytics in finance and provide practical insights into how financial institutions can begin integrating QML capabilities into their workflows.
Financial sectors are based on credit risk modeling to make decisions on lending and regulatory compliance. Although classical machine learning has been used to increase predictiveness, such models are faced with mounting limitations as complex and high-dimensional financial data is processed. Quantum Machine Learning (QML) is an aspect of quantum computing that has offered a potential resolution to the issues, integrating quantum computing and machine learning to speed up the calculations and extract more insight into the patterns. QML has theoretical benefits in classifying credit risk via Quantum Support Vector Machines, Quantum Neural Networks, and hybrid quantum-classical models, through superposition and entanglement. Initial applications show good performance in portfolio optimization, default forecasting, and simulation of risks with the existing hardware constraints. QML demonstrates specific potential in the context of using non-traditional data sources and finding hidden correlations that could reflect creditworthiness, which may allow inclusion-based lending practices without sacrificing risk assessment. With the development of quantum hardware, the financial services sector will gradually adopt quantum capabilities via realistic hybrid strategies that eventually revolutionize the way credit risk is assessed in the world markets.
The synergy between quantum computing and machine learning gives future potential in the financial sector. The unique features such as superposition and entanglement in quantum computing are utilized in Quantum Machine Learning (QML) to solve the challenges that dominate the modern era of finance. The subject of this paper explains the use of Quantum Machine Learning (QML) in finance including risk management, portfolio optimization, market trend forecasting, and fraud detection. In portfolio optimization, the aim is to reduce risk at the same time maximizing return, the quantum-enhanced methodology does it better than the classical method. QML is applied for risk analysis because it efficiently computes values such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). In finance, improved sentiment analysis, anomaly detection to prevent fraud, and prediction of market trends are enabled with QML algorithms. QML improves credit rating, financial time series forecasting, and derivative pricing with its ability to process large amounts of data.