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arXiv:2202.00599

Quantum Machine Learning in Finance: Time Series Forecasting

Dimitrios Emmanoulopoulos, Sofija Dimoska

Published Feb 1, 2022• 33 citations
arXivHTMLPDF

Abstract

We explore the efficacy of the novel use of parametrised quantum circuits (PQCs) as quantum neural networks (QNNs) for forecasting time series signals with simulated quantum forward propagation. The temporal signals consist of several sinusoidal components (deterministic signal), blended together with trends and additive noise. The performance of the PQCs is compared against that of classical bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) neural networks. Our results show that for time series signals consisting of small amplitude noise variations (up to 40 per cent of the amplitude of the deterministic signal) PQCs, with only a few parameters, perform similar to classical BiLSTM networks, with thousands of parameters, and outperform them for signals with higher amplitude noise variations. Thus, QNNs can be used effectively to model time series having, at the same time, the significant advantage of being trained significantly faster than a classical machine learning model in a quantum computer.

DOI
10.48550/arxiv.2202.00599

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Merger of Quantum computing and Machine learning explores a new shift in artificial intelligence. Quantum neural networks and parameterized quantum circuits are tools that enable the merger of these two branches. Here, we use Quantum circuit enabled long short term memory (QLSTM) neural network to forecast time series data. We show the efficacy of quantum computing by conducting experiments on two different time series data sets. In our first experiment, we are predicting the amount of rainfall fall and the second experiment has electric load (power) prediction. Our dataset for rainfall prediction includes hourly information on the weather conditions i.e., wind speed, wind direction, minimum and maximum temperatures, and pressure with the amount of rain falls. For electric load (power generation) dataset, few of the features include amount of biomass, amount of fossil brown coal/ignite, amount of fossil coal derived gas, nuclear power, solar power, and the corresponding wind velocity forecasts. We compare the training as well as the test loss of classical Bidirectional LSTM (BILSTM) and the Quantum BILSTM and observe that LSTM based on quantum approach reduces both the training and test loss considerably when compared to its classical part with very few epochs of training.
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Time-series forecasting is vital across sectors such as finance, energy, and environmental science, where accurate future predictions drive informed decision-making. Traditional statistical methods and deep learning models like LSTM and Transformers, while effective, often struggle with high-dimensional data and long-term dependencies. In this paper, we propose a hybrid quantum-classical model that utilizes Parameterized Quantum Circuits (PQCs) to capture complex temporal patterns in multivariate time-series data. Our architecture integrates a classical encoder, a quantum variational processor, and a classical decoder, trained end-to-end using gradient-based optimization. Experiments conducted on benchmark datasets—electricity load, stock prices, and weather forecasting—demonstrate that the hybrid model consistently outperforms classical baselines in terms of Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and R² score. Robustness analysis confirms the model’s resilience to moderate quantum noise, while an ablation study highlights the performance gain from quantum components. This work showcases the potential of hybrid quantum-classical approaches on Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) devices and lays a foundation for scalable, real-world quantum machine learning applications.
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Time series forecasting involves analyzing historical data to predict future trends and is useful for reducing uncertainty in various phenomena. Recurrent Neural Network-based Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) has been shown to be used for time series forecasting. However, the introduction of a hybrid quantum-classical model of LSTM, i.e., Quantum LSTM (QLSTM), opens up avenues for faster and more efficient computing and, therefore, is of significant potential. These potentials underscore the necessity for a comparative analysis of both models to assess their effectiveness and efficiency. This study evaluates the performance of QLSTM and classical LSTM models in time series forecasting. Through controlled parametric numerical experiments, the study examines the performance of both models using CPUs and GPUs in cloud environments. Our findings reveal significant improvements in the QLSTM model, with enhanced training accuracy and reduced test loss compared to the classical LSTM under similar epochs and batch sizes. The results demonstrate the superior efficiency of the QLSTM model in handling large, complex data sets compared to the classical LSTM model.