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arXiv:2103.10938 · Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence

Quantum Propensity in Economics

David Orrell, Monireh Houshmand

Published Jan 14, 2022• 15 citations
arXivHTMLPDF

Abstract

This paper describes an approach to economics that is inspired by quantum computing, and is motivated by the need to develop a consistent quantum mathematical framework for economics. The traditional neoclassical approach assumes that rational utility-optimisers drive market prices to a stable equilibrium, subject to external perturbations or market failures. While this approach has been highly influential, it has come under increasing criticism following the financial crisis of 2007/8. The quantum approach, in contrast, is inherently probabilistic and dynamic. Decision-makers are described, not by a utility function, but by a propensity function which specifies the probability of transacting. We show how a number of cognitive phenomena such as preference reversal and the disjunction effect can be modelled by using a simple quantum circuit to generate an appropriate propensity function. Conversely, a general propensity function can be quantized,viaan entropic force, to incorporate effects such as interference and entanglement that characterise human decision-making. Applications to some common problems and topics in economics and finance, including the use of quantum artificial intelligence, are discussed.

DOI
10.3389/frai.2021.772294

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This paper describes an approach to economics that is inspired by quantum computing, and is motivated by the need to develop a consistent quantum mathematical framework for economics. The traditional neoclassical approach assumes that rational utility-optimisers drive market prices to a stable equilibrium, subject to external perturbations or market failures. While this approach has been highly influential, it has come under increasing criticism following the financial crisis of 2007/8. The quantum approach, in contrast, is inherently probabilistic and dynamic. Decision-makers are described, not by a utility function, but by a propensity function which specifies the probability of transacting. We show how a number of cognitive phenomena such as preference reversal and the disjunction effect can be modelled by using a simple quantum circuit to generate an appropriate propensity function. Conversely, a general propensity function can be quantized,viaan entropic force, to incorporate effects such as interference and entanglement that characterise human decision-making. Applications to some common problems and topics in economics and finance, including the use of quantum artificial intelligence, are discussed.
Classical economic decision-making models rely on assumptions of stable preferences, logical consistency, and additive probabilities. Yet decades of behavioral research consistently reveal systematic violations of these principles, including preference reversals, framing effects, and context-sensitive judgment patterns that challenge rational-choice theory. This study examines how quantum propensity modeling—grounded in mathematical structures derived from quantum theory—offers a compelling alternative for understanding these anomalies. Unlike classical models, quantum cognition treats decisions as evolving cognitive states represented in superposition, allowing individuals to hold simultaneous, uncertain predispositions before committing to a choice. Contextual interference, probability amplitude effects, and state-dependent transitions enable these models to accurately describe how information order, framing, and emotional cues distort decision trajectories. Through qualitative analysis of case studies from behavioral economics, cognitive psychology, and decision theory, this research highlights how quantum models capture the non-commutativity of choices, the instability of preferences under uncertainty, and the mechanisms behind cognitive interference patterns. The findings suggest that quantum propensity modeling not only explains well-documented behavioral anomalies more coherently than classical frameworks but also provides a theoretical foundation for applications in market forecasting, algorithmic pricing, consumer behavior analysis, and policy design. Ultimately, the study argues that quantum-inspired decision models represent a transformative step toward more realistic, context-aware interpretations of economic behavior.
Classical models of decision-making under uncertainty, grounded in expected utility theory and Bayesian probability, often fail to account for systematic cognitive anomalies such as preference reversals, order effects, ambiguity aversion, and context-dependent choices. Quantum cognition models offer a novel theoretical framework that applies the mathematical principles of quantum probability—such as superposition, interference, and non-commutativity—to cognitive processes without assuming physical quantum mechanisms in the brain. By representing cognitive states as probabilistic superpositions that collapse through decision “measurements,” these models provide parsimonious explanations for violations of classical rationality. This paper examines how quantum cognition frameworks capture contextual influence, belief updating, and interference effects in uncertain decision environments. Drawing on findings from cognitive psychology and behavioral economics, the study highlights the relevance of quantum cognition for applications in economic choice modeling, legal decision analysis, and artificial intelligence. The analysis suggests that quantum probability offers a robust alternative to classical approaches when modeling human decision-making in complex, ambiguous, and context-sensitive situations.
In recent years, quantum economics has emerged as a revolutionary discipline that applies the fundamental principles of quantum physics to offer a new perspective on the uncertainty and complexity inherent in modern economic systems. Quantum cognition plays a fundamental role in this framework, explaining how individuals process information and make decisions in contexts of ambiguity and uncertainty. Using quantum mechanisms such as the superposition of mental states, interference, and entanglement, quantum cognition models complex behavioral phenomena that are inexplicable by classical decision theory, such as the effects of presentation order and cognitive paradoxes. This article examines the intersection between quantum economics, quantum cognition, decision-making, and sustainability in financial environments through a systematic review following the PRISMA methodology and a bibliometric analysis. Recent advances in artificial intelligence and quantum computing are driving the practical application of these approaches, improving the management of uncertainty in sectors such as renewable energy and sustainable resource management. The results show that quantum economics is a promising framework for the design of policies and strategies aimed at achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Since its emergence in the 1970s, behavioral economics has integrated psychological insights into economics—drawing on Kahneman and Tversky's prospect theory, Thaler's psychological accounting and boost theory, and Schiller's behavioral finance—thereby dismantling the myth of the "homo economicus" and revealing systematic cognitive biases inherent to human decision-making. However, classical behavioral economics has been constructed from a collection of fragmented "effects" and "biases," lacking a unified, axiomatic mathematical framework; moreover, the frequent practice among researchers to selectively apply individual effects has undermined the discipline's predictive power and theoretical coherence. This book is the first academic monograph in the world to systematically expound on quantum behavioral economics—a new paradigm devised specifically to overcome this fundamental dilemma. It introduces concepts such as Hilbert spaces, state vectors, superposition, entanglement, measurement collapse, quantum probability, interference effects, unitary evolution, decoherence, non-commutative observables, and quantum phase transitions into the foundational bedrock of behavioral economics: that preferences and beliefs coexist in a superposition prior to decision-making; that decision-making consists of constructing measurements to extract definite preferences via measurement collapse; and that the beliefs and behaviors of individuals are entangled, exhibiting non-local quantum correlations. Furthermore, it posits that the sequence in which information is presented and the framing effects are intrinsic properties of quantum decision-making—rather than mere "biases." This book comprises six parts and thirty chapters: Part I, "Paradigm Revolution," establishes the philosophical foundations, the quantum subject hypothesis, and the analytical framework; Part II develops quantum probabilistic judgments, quantum heuristics, quantum prospect theory, quantum decision-making under uncertainty, and quantum framing effects; Part III explores quantum preferences, quantum utility, quantum choice theory, quantum endowment effects and loss aversion, as well as the current state of quantum research and default effects; Part IV extends the scope to quantum social preferences, quantum altruism, quantum trust and cooperation, quantum game theory, and quantum public goods games; Part V examines quantum intertemporal choice, quantum hyperbolic discounting, quantum self-control, quantum procrastination and addiction, and quantum habit formation and behavioral change across temporal dimensions; Part VI demonstrates the application of framing in finance, markets, public policy, and health domains, while offering insights into the future of this discipline. This work pursues three overarching objectives: theoretical unification and depth, originality and authority, and seamless readability. It is intended for graduate students, faculty, and researchers in behavioral economics, decision science, psychology, and finance, as well as for public policy makers and practitioners in financial markets to provide new paradigm-based analytical tools.
Abstract Microeconomics represents the most formally formalized branch of the social sciences. Yet its core actor—the rational agent endowed with complete and consistent preferences, who maximizes a well-defined utility function without hesitation—does not exist in laboratory experiments, market transactions or real household decision-making. Behavioral economics has dismantled this myth, only to replace it with a disjoint catalogue of separate “effects” and “anomalies”: different effects yield contradictory predictions, and researchers select effects ex post to rationalize all observed outcomes. A discipline that explains everything case by case can barely generate ex ante predictions. This monograph is the first work worldwide to systematically reconstruct quantum microeconomics. Human preferences and beliefs possess a mathematical structure isomorphic to quantum states: prior to a decision, alternative options coexist in superposition; choice constitutes a measurement that constructs preferences; question order alters responses because judgments correspond to incompatible observables; interacting individuals become mutually entangled. Framing effects, order effects, preference reversals and herding behavior are no longer a mere inventory of biases, but predictable signatures emerging from a unified underlying process. This book does not argue that the human brain operates as a physical quantum machine. It posits instead that the mathematical structure of human choice is isomorphic to quantum statesarXiv. The book is organized into six parts. Part I, Paradigm Revolution, diagnoses the century-long crisis of the classical paradigm, traces its mechanistic legacy from Newton to Walras, establishes the philosophical foundations of practical ontology and observation dependence, puts forward the quantum agent hypothesis, and assembles the analytical framework for the entire volume. Part II develops quantum consumer theory, reconstructing preferences, utility, choice, demand and welfare measurement on the basis of superposition. Part III builds quantum producer theory, covering production, costs, supply, the theory of the firm, and profit maximization. Part IV addresses quantum market structure and game theory, treating perfect competition, monopoly, monopolistic competition, oligopoly and games as entangled quantum systems. Part V reconstructs quantum general equilibrium and market failure, including general equilibrium theory, welfare economics, externalities, public goods and asymmetric information. Part VI extends the framework to factor markets for labor, capital and land, synthesizes behavioral microeconomics, and charts future disciplinary frontiers. The book balances unity and depth, originality and rigor, formal rigor and readability. Within an axiomatic framework, it derives core macroeconomic phenomena from a small set of quantum principles. Each chapter contains original theoretical construction, formal mathematical derivation and real-world applications, with purpose-built diagrams to substantiate arguments. This volume is suitable for undergraduate and graduate students, academic researchers, policy practitioners, and all readers who seek to understand why economies boom and collapse.
Abstract This is the world’s first general-audience work to systematically rewrite the underlying logic of economics through quantum thinking. Since Adam Smith, economics has rested on the foundation of Newtonian mechanism: human beings are rational atoms skilled at calculation, resources are scarce stocks with fixed attributes, prices tend toward equilibrium, and markets clear automatically. Yet the rise of behavioral economics shattered the myth of homo economicus, and the 2008 financial crisis, platform economies, free goods, asset-price bubbles, and the repeated tug-of-war between inflation and expectations have again and again exposed the limits of the classical framework’s explanatory power. The problem is not that a particular conclusion needs patching; it is that the entire worldview needs updating. This book argues that what quantum mechanics contributes to economics is not a set of fashionable metaphors, but a rigorous intellectual structure for handling multiple coexisting possibilities, observation that participates in generation, relations that precede entities, and a whole that is greater than the sum of its parts. From this perspective, resources are probability clouds of possibility waiting to be activated by cognition, and scarcity is the result of observational collapse; human nature is a superposition of the rational and the irrational; decision-making is measurement rather than revelation; supply and demand are mutually entangled, and prices oscillate around coherent states rather than settling at static equilibrium; money is an entangled carrier of trust, and institutions are the coherent emergence of economic systems. The book consists of an introduction and six parts comprising forty-two chapters. Part I accomplishes the worldview leap from Newton to the quantum; Part II reinterprets individual choice and cost; Part III dissects the entanglement mechanism of supply, demand, and price; Part IV examines money, cycles, and market networks; Part V rebuilds the theory of value and welfare; Part VI leads to the emergent landscape of property rights, policy, and institutional civilization. Each chapter follows a “break before build” approach: first dismantling a widely held classical myth, then offering a more explanatory answer within the quantum framework, supplemented by real cases spanning ancient and modern, Chinese and foreign history, thought experiments, comparative charts, and chapter-end key takeaways, discussion questions, and further reading. With masterful and penetrating prose, the author makes cutting-edge theory accessible and compelling. Whether you are a researcher or graduate student in economics, management, finance, or decision science, or a general reader hoping to see through the workings of wealth, markets, and society, this book will change the lenses through which you view the world—afterward, the economic world will never look the same.