Abstract Google’s quantum supremacy experiment heralded a transition point where quantum computers can evaluate a computational task, random circuit sampling, faster than classical supercomputers. We examine the constraints on the region of quantum advantage for quantum circuits with a larger number of qubits and gates than experimentally implemented. At near-term gate fidelities, we demonstrate that quantum supremacy is limited to circuits with a qubit count and circuit depth of a few hundred. Larger circuits encounter two distinct boundaries: a return of a classical advantage and practically infeasible quantum runtimes. Decreasing error rates cause the region of a quantum advantage to grow rapidly. At error rates required for early implementations of the surface code, the largest circuit size within the quantum supremacy regime coincides approximately with the smallest circuit size needed to implement error correction. Thus, the boundaries of quantum supremacy may fortuitously coincide with the advent of scalable, error-corrected quantum computing.
Abstract Google’s quantum supremacy experiment heralded a transition point where quantum computers can evaluate a computational task, random circuit sampling, faster than classical supercomputers. We examine the constraints on the region of quantum advantage for quantum circuits with a larger number of qubits and gates than experimentally implemented. At near-term gate fidelities, we demonstrate that quantum supremacy is limited to circuits with a qubit count and circuit depth of a few hundred. Larger circuits encounter two distinct boundaries: a return of a classical advantage and practically infeasible quantum runtimes. Decreasing error rates cause the region of a quantum advantage to grow rapidly. At error rates required for early implementations of the surface code, the largest circuit size within the quantum supremacy regime coincides approximately with the smallest circuit size needed to implement error correction. Thus, the boundaries of quantum supremacy may fortuitously coincide with the advent of scalable, error-corrected quantum computing.
As Moore's law reaches its limits, quantum computers are emerging with the promise of dramatically outperforming classical computers. We have witnessed the advent of quantum processors with over 50 quantum bits (qubits), which are expected to be beyond the reach of classical simulation. Quantum supremacy is the event at which the old Extended Church-Turing Thesis is overturned: A quantum computer performs a task that is practically impossible for any classical (super)computer. The demonstration requires both a solid theoretical guarantee and an experimental realization. The lead candidate is Random Circuit Sampling (RCS), which is the task of sampling from the output distribution of random quantum circuits. Google recently announced a 53−qubit experimental demonstration of RCS. Soon after, classical algorithms appeared that challenge the supremacy of random circuits by estimating their outputs. How hard is it to classically simulate the output of random quantum circuits? We prove that estimating the output probabilities of random quantum circuits is formidably hard (#P-Hard) for any classical computer. This makes RCS the strongest candidate for demonstrating quantum supremacy relative to all other proposals. The robustness to the estimation error that we prove may serve as a new hardness criterion for the performance of classical algorithms. To achieve this, we introduce the Cayley path interpolation between any two gates of a quantum computation and convolve recent advances in quantum complexity and information with probability and random matrices. Furthermore, we apply algebraic geometry to generalize the well-known Berlekamp-Welch algorithm that is widely used in coding theory and cryptography. Our results imply that there is an exponential hardness barrier for the classical simulation of most quantum circuits.
Although the emergence of a fully-functional quantum computer may still be far away from today, in the near future, it is possible to have medium-size, special-purpose, quantum devices that can perform computational tasks not efficiently simulable with any classical computer. This status is known as quantum supremacy (or quantum advantage), where one of the promising approaches is through the sampling of chaotic quantum circuits. Sampling of ideal chaotic quantum circuits has been argued to require an exponential time for classical devices. A major question is whether quantum supremacy can be maintained under noise without error correction, as the implementation of fault-tolerance would cost lots of extra qubits and quantum gates. Here we show that, for a family of chaotic quantum circuits subject to Pauli errors, there exists an non-exponential classical algorithm capable of simulating the noisy chaotic quantum circuits with bounded errors. This result represents a serious challenge to a previous result in the literature suggesting the failure of classical devices in simulating noisy chaotic circuits with about 48 qubits and depth 25. Moreover, even though our model does not cover all types of experimental errors, from a practical point view, our result describes a well-defined setting where quantum supremacy can be tested against the challenges of classical rivals, in the context of chaotic quantum circuits.
This study aims to analyze recent developments in quantum supremacy by comparing the computational performance of stabilized superconducting qubit systems with classical supercomputing capabilities. A systematic literature review was conducted on major experimental studies published between 2019 and 2024, focusing on random circuit sampling, qubit stability, gate fidelity, and computational runtime comparisons. The analysis covers key quantum processors, including Sycamore and Zuchongzhi, by evaluating three main parameters: number of qubits, circuit complexity, and performance gap relative to classical simulation.The results show that quantum processors with 50–100 qubits and high gate fidelity are able to complete specific sampling tasks within seconds to hours, whereas equivalent classical simulations would require thousands to billions of years. The findings also indicate that computational advantage increases exponentially with system scale and is strongly influenced by qubit stability and error suppression techniques. Although the demonstrated tasks remain specialized and not yet applicable to practical problems, the evidence confirms that stabilized qubit systems have achieved a measurable computational regime beyond classical feasibility.This review provides a clear synthesis of current experimental achievements and highlights that future progress toward practical quantum advantage depends on improvements in error correction, scalability, and hardware reliability.
We introduce a distributed classical simulation algorithm for general quantum circuits, and present numerical results for calculating the output probabilities of universal random circuits. We find that we can simulate more qubits to greater depth than previously reported using the cluster supported by the Data Infrastructure and Search Technology Division of the Alibaba Group. For example, computing a single amplitude of an 8×8 qubit circuit with depth 40 was previously beyond the reach of supercomputers. Our algorithm can compute this within 2 minutes using a small portion (≈ 14% of the nodes) of the cluster. Furthermore, by successfully simulating quantum supremacy circuits of size 9×9×40, $10\times 10\times 35 $, 11×11×31, and $12\times 12\times 27 $, we give evidence that noisy random circuits with realistic physical parameters may be simulated classically. This suggests that either harder circuits or error-correction may be vital for achieving quantum supremacy from random circuit sampling.
With the rapid progress made by industry and academia, quantum computers with dozens of qubits or even larger size are being realized. However, the fidelity of existing quantum computers often sharply decreases as the circuit depth increases. Thus, an ideal quantum circuit simulator on classical computers, especially on high-performance computers, is needed for benchmarking and validation. We design a large-scale simulator of universal random quantum circuits, often called “quantum supremacy circuits”, and implement it on Sunway TaihuLight. The simulator can be used to accomplish the following two tasks: 1) Computing a complete output state-vector; 2) Calculating one or a few amplitudes. We target the simulation of 49-qubit circuits. For task 1), we successfully simulate such a circuit of depth 39, and for task 2) we reach the 55-depth level. To the best of our knowledge, both of the simulation results reach the largest depth for 49-qubit quantum supremacy circuits.
Motivated by the recent experimental demonstrations of quantum supremacy, proving the hardness of the output of random quantum circuits is an imperative near term goal. We prove under the complexity theoretical assumption of the non-collapse of the polynomial hierarchy that approximating the output probabilities of random quantum circuits to within exp(−Ω(mlogm)) additive error is hard for any classical computer, where m is the number of gates in the quantum computation. More precisely, we show that the above problem is #P-hard under BPPNP reduction. In the recent experiments, the quantum circuit has n-qubits and the architecture is a two-dimensional grid of size n×n. Indeed for constant depth circuits approximating the output probabilities to within 2−Ω(nlogn) is hard. For circuits of depth logn or n for which the anti-concentration property holds, approximating the output probabilities to within 2−Ω(nlog2n) and 2−Ω(n3/2logn) is hard respectively. We made an effort to find the best proofs and proved these results from first principles, which do not use the standard techniques such as the Berlekamp--Welch algorithm, the usual Paturi's lemma, and Rakhmanov's result.