A key problem in financial mathematics is the forecasting of financial crashes: If we perturb asset prices, will financial institutions fail on a massive scale? This was recently shown to be a computationally intractable (NP-hard) problem. Financial crashes are inherently difficult to predict, even for a regulator which has complete information about the financial system. In this Rapid Communication, we show how this problem can be handled by quantum annealers. More specifically, we map the equilibrium condition of a toy-model financial network to the ground-state problem of a spin-1/2 quantum Hamiltonian with two-body interactions, i.e., a quadratic unconstrained binary optimization problem. The equilibrium market values of institutions after a sudden shock to the network can then be calculated via adiabatic quantum computation and, more generically, by quantum annealers. Our procedure could be implemented on near-term quantum processors, thus providing a potentially more efficient way to assess financial equilibrium and predict financial crashes.
A key problem in financial mathematics is the forecasting of financial crashes: If we perturb asset prices, will financial institutions fail on a massive scale? This was recently shown to be a computationally intractable (NP-hard) problem. Financial crashes are inherently difficult to predict, even for a regulator which has complete information about the financial system. In this Rapid Communication, we show how this problem can be handled by quantum annealers. More specifically, we map the equilibrium condition of a toy-model financial network to the ground-state problem of a spin-1/2 quantum Hamiltonian with two-body interactions, i.e., a quadratic unconstrained binary optimization problem. The equilibrium market values of institutions after a sudden shock to the network can then be calculated via adiabatic quantum computation and, more generically, by quantum annealers. Our procedure could be implemented on near-term quantum processors, thus providing a potentially more efficient way to assess financial equilibrium and predict financial crashes.
The prediction of financial crashes in a complex financial network is known to be an NP-hard problem, which means that no known algorithm can efficiently find optimal solutions. We experimentally explore a novel approach to this problem by using a D-Wave quantum annealer, benchmarking its performance for attaining a financial equilibrium. To be specific, the equilibrium condition of a nonlinear financial model is embedded into a higher-order unconstrained binary optimization (HUBO) problem, which is then transformed into a spin-1/2 Hamiltonian with at most, two-qubit interactions. The problem is thus equivalent to finding the ground state of an interacting spin Hamiltonian, which can be approximated with a quantum annealer. The size of the simulation is mainly constrained by the necessity of a large number of physical qubits representing a logical qubit with the correct connectivity. Our experiment paves the way for the codification of this quantitative macroeconomics problem in quantum annealers.
Forecasting and managing risk incurring well are major tasks among financial markets that are very volatile, highly interdependent, and with huge streams of data. Unfortunately, these circumstances cannot be handled by conventional computational models due to their inability to work with large data sets and to identify the nonlinear patterns in finance. Quantum computers (QCs) have revolutionized how financial decisions are being made with the new quantum parallelism and excellent optimization algorithms. In this work, Quantum Powered Financial Intelligence (QPFI) System, as a combination of Quantum Machine Learning (QML), Quantum Optimization, and Quantum Monte Carlo Simulations is offered to optimize market forecast and risk estimation. Better pattern detection is realized to predict asset prices using QML models, for example, Variational Quantum Circuits and Quantum Support Vector Machines. Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithms are used for portfolio allocation optimization of risk vs. return tradeoffs and quantum Monte Carlo simulations for speed-up in stress testing and credit risk assessment. Another way fraud detection is helped by QGANs is in detecting any concealed anomalies in transactional data. The suggested hybrid quantum-classical solution is scalable through cloud-based quantum infrastructure, which facilitates pragmatic implementation within financial institutions. Through the presentation of improved accuracy, computational power, and real-time decision-making, this study identifies the prospect of quantum computing to revolutionize risk management and forecasting models in financial institutions. Future research directions involve enhancing hardware stability, regulatory aspects, and practical quantum trials in banking and trading companies.
Quantum annealing has emerged as a promising computational paradigm for solving large-scale combinatorial optimization problems that are intractable for classical algorithms. Financial portfolio optimization, which involves balancing expected returns against risk under multiple practical constraints, represents one of the most challenging optimization tasks in quantitative finance. Traditional approaches based on mean-variance theory, heuristic meta-optimization, and classical quadratic programming often struggle to scale efficiently as the dimensionality of assets and constraints increases. This study explores the application of quantum annealing techniques to financial portfolio optimization by formulating the problem as a quadratic unconstrained binary optimization model suitable for quantum hardware. The paper provides a systematic mapping of portfolio objectives and constraints into the Ising Hamiltonian framework and analyzes how quantum tunneling and probabilistic state transitions can enhance convergence toward near-global optima. Comparative insights between classical solvers and quantum annealing-based approaches are discussed in terms of solution quality, computational efficiency, and scalability. Furthermore, the study highlights current hardware limitations, embedding challenges, and noise effects that influence optimization performance. The findings indicate that quantum annealing offers substantial potential for accelerating portfolio optimization in high-dimensional financial systems, particularly in scenarios involving complex constraints and dynamic market conditions, thereby establishing a foundation for future quantum-driven financial decision-support systems.
In this study, we focus on estimating financial crashes within a network of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) that are customers of Yapi Kredi Bank. These SMEs have complex financial relationships involving receivables and payables among each other. We developed a quadratically constrained quadratic program as a mathematical optimization model aiming at identifying significant vulnerabilities and potential failure points in this network. By defining key parameters such as crossholding ratios, self-holding fractions, asset ownership proportions, and failure cost functions, we capture the intricate dependencies between these entities. The model is inherently nonlinear due to the quadratic terms and constraints, reflecting the real-world complexities of financial networks. Solving this NP-hard problem using classical methods is challenging; therefore, we leverage quantum computing technology to efficiently explore the solution space and produce decision variables that indicate the likelihood of financial distress for each SME in the network. The difficulty of this problem lies in the potential domino effect, where a single delayed payment can trigger subsequent financial distress among connected entities, leading to a cascading collapse within the financial network. Classical computing solutions for such problems would take an impractical amount of time, estimated at 13.7 billion years. In contrast, using quantum computing, our optimization model solves the problem in approximately 7 seconds. Using financial data from 2019, our model successfully identified 90.04 million TL out of 107 million TL of non-performing loans. Similarly, using data from 2020, it identified 669.92 million TL out of 726 million TL of non-performing loans. Overall, the model accurately predicted 91.2.
The rapid evolution of financial technologies (FinTech) and digital assets—including cryptocurrencies, decentralized finance (DeFi), and tokenized capital markets—has created an unprecedented need for secure, scalable, and computationally efficient systems. This study examines the transformative potential of quantum computing in reshaping financial technology infrastructures and digital asset ecosystems. Traditional computational models, constrained by classical encryption limits and the exponential growth of financial data, face increasing inefficiencies in handling real-time risk assessment, portfolio optimization, and transaction verification. Quantum computing, with its capacity for superposition, entanglement, and parallel state evaluation, provides novel opportunities to redefine data security, financial modeling, and cryptographic mechanisms in the digital economy. The research explores how quantum algorithms—notably Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA), Quantum Fourier Transform (QFT), and Grover’s search algorithm—can enhance financial operations such as market forecasting, fraud detection, and asset pricing. Additionally, it investigates quantum-resistant cryptography to safeguard digital asset networks against the vulnerabilities introduced by future quantum decryption capabilities. By integrating hybrid quantum–classical frameworks, this approach enables the development of sustainable, adaptive, and transparent financial systems. The findings highlight quantum computing’s potential to advance financial inclusion, increase transaction speed, and improve systemic resilience. As global financial markets transition toward quantum readiness, the convergence of FinTech and quantum innovation is expected to redefine how digital assets are managed, traded, and secured—marking a paradigm shift toward quantum financial intelligence.
The growing complexity, interdependencies, and rapid fluctuations inherent in modern financial markets create substantial challenges for accurate forecasting, portfolio optimization, and risk management. Conventional machine learning techniques, while powerful, often face limitations in capturing nonlinear relationships and processing high-dimensional datasets efficiently. Quantum machine learning (QML) has emerged as a promising paradigm that leverages quantum computing principles to enhance predictive modeling in finance. This study presents a comprehensive investigation into the application of QML methods—including variational quantum circuits, quantum kernel estimation, and quantum-enhanced support vector machines—for financial time-series prediction and asset price classification. We propose a hybrid quantum-classical framework that integrates quantum feature mapping with classical optimizers to improve model expressiveness and convergence. Empirical experiments are conducted using historical stock market data and synthetic datasets to benchmark QML approaches against established classical models such as long short-term memory networks and gradient boosting machines. The results demonstrate that QML techniques can achieve superior prediction accuracy and lower computational latency under certain data regimes, particularly when dealing with small-to-medium-sized datasets and high feature correlations. Additionally, the study examines scalability considerations, hardware constraints of near-term quantum devices, and the interpretability of quantum model outputs in financial decision-making contexts. The findings underscore the transformative potential of quantum machine learning as an innovative tool for advancing predictive analytics in finance and provide practical insights into how financial institutions can begin integrating QML capabilities into their workflows.