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arXiv:1711.05740 · Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics

Possibilities for probabilities

Don Nelson Page

Published Oct 1, 2022• 6 citations
arXivHTMLPDF

Abstract

Abstract In ordinary situations involving a small part of the universe, Born's rule seems to work well for calculating probabilities of observations in quantum theory. However, there are a number of reasons for believing that it is not adequate for many cosmological purposes. Here a number of possible generalizations of Born's rule are discussed, explaining why they are consistent with the present statistical support for Born's rule in ordinary situations but can help solve various cosmological problems.

DOI
10.1088/1475-7516/2022/10/023

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Abstract In ordinary situations involving a small part of the universe, Born's rule seems to work well for calculating probabilities of observations in quantum theory. However, there are a number of reasons for believing that it is not adequate for many cosmological purposes. Here a number of possible generalizations of Born's rule are discussed, explaining why they are consistent with the present statistical support for Born's rule in ordinary situations but can help solve various cosmological problems.
Probabilities in quantum theory are traditionally given by Born's rule as the expectation values of projection operators. Here it is shown that Born's rule is insufficient in universes so large that they contain identical multiple copies of observers, because one does not have definite projection operators to apply. Possible replacements for Born's rule include using the expectation value of various operators that are not projection operators, or using various options for the average density matrix of a region with an observation. The question of what replacement to use is part of the measure problem in cosmology.
Page has recently argued that the Born rule does not suffice for computing all probabilities in quantum cosmology. He further asserts that the Born rule's failure gives rise to the cosmological measure problem. Here I contend that Page's result stems from his use of an overly restrictive definition of the Born rule. In particular, I demonstrate that all of the probabilities he wishes to compute follow from the Born rule when generalized measurements are permitted. I also register two comments on Page's theoretical setting, relating respectively to Hilbert space dimensionality and permutation symmetry. These considerations lead me to conclude that the claimed insufficiency of the Born rule is by no means specific to the cosmological context.
Page has recently argued that the Born rule does not suffice for computing all probabilities in quantum cosmology. He further asserts that the Born rule's failure gives rise to the cosmological measure problem. Here I contend that Page's result stems from his use of an overly restrictive definition of the Born rule. In particular, I demonstrate that all of the probabilities he wishes to compute follow from the Born rule when generalized measurements are permitted. I also register two comments on Page's theoretical setting, relating respectively to Hilbert space dimensionality and permutation symmetry. These considerations lead me to conclude that the claimed insufficiency of the Born rule is by no means specific to the cosmological context.
The Born rule may be stated mathematically as the rule that probabilities in quantum theory are expectation values of a complete orthogonal set of projection operators. This rule works for single laboratory settings in which the observer can distinguish all the different possible outcomes corresponding to the projection operators. However, theories of inflation suggest that the universe may be so large that any laboratory, no matter how precisely it is defined by its internal state, may exist in a large number of very distantly separated copies throughout the vast universe. In this case, no observer within the universe can distinguish all possible outcomes for all copies of the laboratory. Then normalized probabilities for the local outcomes that can be locally distinguished cannot be given by the expectation values of any projection operators. Thus the Born rule fails and must be replaced by another rule for observational probabilities in cosmology. The freedom of what this new rule is to be is the measure problem in cosmology. A particular volume-averaged form is proposed.
A simple proof is given that the probabilities of observations in a large universe are not given directly by Born's rule as the expectation values of projection operators in a global quantum state of the entire universe. An alternative procedure is proposed for constructing an averaged density matrix for a random small region of the universe and then calculating observational probabilities indirectly by Born's rule as conditional probabilities, conditioned upon the existence of an observation.
The Born Rule plays a critical role in quantum mechanics (QM) since it supplies the link between the mathematical formalism and experimental results in terms of probabilities. The Born Rule does not occur in ordinary probability theory. Where then does it come from? This has been a topic of considerable controversy in the literature. We take the approach of asking what is the simplest extension of ordinary probability theory where the Born rule appears. This is answered by showing that the Born Rule appears by adding the notion of superposition events (in addition to the ordinary discrete events) to finite probability theory. Hence the rule does not need any physics-based derivation. It is simply a feature of the mathematics of superposition when only superposition events are added to ordinary probability theory.