Abstract The problem of causal inference is to determine if a given probability distribution on observed variables is compatible with some causal structure. The difficult case is when the causal structure includes latent variables. We here introduce the inflation technique for tackling this problem. An inflation of a causal structure is a new causal structure that can contain multiple copies of each of the original variables, but where the ancestry of each copy mirrors that of the original. To every distribution of the observed variables that is compatible with the original causal structure, we assign a family of marginal distributions on certain subsets of the copies that are compatible with the inflated causal structure. It follows that compatibility constraints for the inflation can be translated into compatibility constraints for the original causal structure. Even if the constraints at the level of inflation are weak, such as observable statistical independences implied by disjoint causal ancestry, the translated constraints can be strong. We apply this method to derive new inequalities whose violation by a distribution witnesses that distribution’s incompatibility with the causal structure (of which Bell inequalities and Pearl’s instrumental inequality are prominent examples). We describe an algorithm for deriving all such inequalities for the original causal structure that follow from ancestral independences in the inflation. For three observed binary variables with pairwise common causes, it yields inequalities that are stronger in at least some aspects than those obtainable by existing methods. We also describe an algorithm that derives a weaker set of inequalities but is more efficient. Finally, we discuss which inflations are such that the inequalities one obtains from them remain valid even for quantum (and post-quantum) generalizations of the notion of a causal model.
Abstract The problem of causal inference is to determine if a given probability distribution on observed variables is compatible with some causal structure. The difficult case is when the causal structure includes latent variables. We here introduce the inflation technique for tackling this problem. An inflation of a causal structure is a new causal structure that can contain multiple copies of each of the original variables, but where the ancestry of each copy mirrors that of the original. To every distribution of the observed variables that is compatible with the original causal structure, we assign a family of marginal distributions on certain subsets of the copies that are compatible with the inflated causal structure. It follows that compatibility constraints for the inflation can be translated into compatibility constraints for the original causal structure. Even if the constraints at the level of inflation are weak, such as observable statistical independences implied by disjoint causal ancestry, the translated constraints can be strong. We apply this method to derive new inequalities whose violation by a distribution witnesses that distribution’s incompatibility with the causal structure (of which Bell inequalities and Pearl’s instrumental inequality are prominent examples). We describe an algorithm for deriving all such inequalities for the original causal structure that follow from ancestral independences in the inflation. For three observed binary variables with pairwise common causes, it yields inequalities that are stronger in at least some aspects than those obtainable by existing methods. We also describe an algorithm that derives a weaker set of inequalities but is more efficient. Finally, we discuss which inflations are such that the inequalities one obtains from them remain valid even for quantum (and post-quantum) generalizations of the notion of a causal model.
Abstract The problem of causal inference is to determine if a given probability distribution on observed variables is compatible with some causal structure. The difficult case is when the causal structure includes latent variables. We here introduce the inflation technique for tackling this problem. An inflation of a causal structure is a new causal structure that can contain multiple copies of each of the original variables, but where the ancestry of each copy mirrors that of the original. To every distribution of the observed variables that is compatible with the original causal structure, we assign a family of marginal distributions on certain subsets of the copies that are compatible with the inflated causal structure. It follows that compatibility constraints for the inflation can be translated into compatibility constraints for the original causal structure. Even if the constraints at the level of inflation are weak, such as observable statistical independences implied by disjoint causal ancestry, the translated constraints can be strong. We apply this method to derive new inequalities whose violation by a distribution witnesses that distribution’s incompatibility with the causal structure (of which Bell inequalities and Pearl’s instrumental inequality are prominent examples). We describe an algorithm for deriving all such inequalities for the original causal structure that follow from ancestral independences in the inflation. For three observed binary variables with pairwise common causes, it yields inequalities that are stronger in at least some aspects than those obtainable by existing methods. We also describe an algorithm that derives a weaker set of inequalities but is more efficient. Finally, we discuss which inflations are such that the inequalities one obtains from them remain valid even for quantum (and post-quantum) generalizations of the notion of a causal model.
Abstract The causal compatibility question asks whether a given causal structure graph — possibly involving latent variables — constitutes a genuinely plausible causal explanation for a given probability distribution over the graph’s observed categorical variables. Algorithms predicated on merely necessary constraints for causal compatibility typically suffer from false negatives, i.e. they admit incompatible distributions as apparently compatible with the given graph. In 10.1515/jci-2017-0020 , one of us introduced the inflation technique for formulating useful relaxations of the causal compatibility problem in terms of linear programming. In this work, we develop a formal hierarchy of such causal compatibility relaxations. We prove that inflation is asymptotically tight, i.e., that the hierarchy converges to a zero-error test for causal compatibility. In this sense, the inflation technique fulfills a longstanding desideratum in the field of causal inference. We quantify the rate of convergence by showing that any distribution which passes the nth-order inflation test must be O(n−1/2) -close in Euclidean norm to some distribution genuinely compatible with the given causal structure. Furthermore, we show that for many causal structures, the (unrelaxed) causal compatibility problem is faithfully formulated already by either the first or second order inflation test.
Consider the problem of deciding, for a particular multipartite quantum state, whether or not it is realizable in a quantum network with a particular causal structure. This is a fully quantum version of what causal inference researchers refer to as the problem of causal discovery. In this work, we introduce a fully quantum version of the inflation technique for causal inference, which leverages the quantum marginal problem. The primary example by which we illustrate the utility of this method is testing compatibility of tripartite quantum states with the quantum network known as the triangle scenario. We show, in particular, how the method yields a complete classification of pure three-qubit states into those that are and those that are not compatible with the triangle scenario. We also provide some illustrative examples involving mixed-states and some where one or more of the systems is higher dimensional. Furthermore, we examine the question of when the incompatibility of a multipartite quantum state with a causal structure can be inferred from the incompatibility of a joint probability distribution induced by implementing measurements on each subsystem. Finally, we present a family of networks, which includes the triangle scenario as a special case, for which causal compatibility constraints can be derived.
Abstract For two causal structures with the same set of visible variables, one is said to observationally dominate the other if the set of distributions over the visible variables realizable by the first contains the set of distributions over the visible variables realizable by the second. Knowing such dominance relations is useful for adjudicating between these structures given observational data. Here, we consider the problem of determining the partial order of equivalence classes of causal structures with latent variables relative to observational dominance. We provide a complete characterization of the dominance order in the case of three visible variables, and a partial characterization in the case of four visible variables. Our techniques also help to identify which observational equivalence classes have a set of realizable distributions that is characterized by nontrivial inequality constraints, analogous to Bell inequalities and instrumental inequalities. We find evidence that as one increases the number of visible variables, the equivalence classes satisfying nontrivial inequality constraints become ubiquitous (Because such classes are the ones for which there can be a difference in the distributions that are quantumly and classically realizable, this implies that the potential for quantum-classical gaps is also ubiquitous). Furthermore, we find evidence that constraint-based causal discovery algorithms that rely solely on conditional independence constraints have a significantly weaker distinguishing power among observational equivalence classes than algorithms that go beyond these (i.e., algorithms that also leverage nested Markov constraints and inequality constraints).
Abstract A causal structure is a description of the functional dependencies between random variables. A distribution is compatible with a given causal structure if it can be realized by a process respecting these dependencies. Deciding whether a distribution is compatible with a structure is a practically and fundamentally relevant, yet very difficult problem. Only recently has a general class of algorithms been proposed: These so-called inflation techniques associate to any causal structure a hierarchy of increasingly strict compatibility tests, where each test can be formulated as a computationally efficient convex optimization problem. Remarkably, it has been shown that in the classical case, this hierarchy is complete in the sense that each non-compatible distribution will be detected at some level of the hierarchy. An inflation hierarchy has also been formulated for causal structures that allow for the observed classical random variables to arise from measurements on quantum states—however, no proof of completeness of this quantum inflation hierarchy has been supplied. In this paper, we construct a first version of the quantum inflation hierarchy that is provably convergent. It takes an additional parameter, r , which can be interpreted as an upper bound on the Schmidt rank of the observables involved. For each r , it provides a family of increasingly strict and ultimately complete compatibility tests for correlations that are compatible with a given causal structure under this Schmidt rank constraint. From a technical point of view, convergence proofs are built on de Finetti theorems , which show that certain symmetries (which can be imposed in convex optimization problems) imply independence of random variables (which is not directly a convex constraint). A main technical ingredient to our proof is a Quantum de Finetti Theorem that holds for general tensor products of C∗ C ∗ -algebras, generalizing previous work that was restricted to minimal tensor products.
The classical causal relations between a set of variables, some observed and some latent, can induce both equality constraints (typically conditional independencies) as well as inequality constraints (Instrumental and Bell inequalities being prototypical examples) on their compatible distribution over the observed variables. Enumerating a causal structure's implied inequality constraints is generally far more difficult than enumerating its equalities. Furthermore, only inequality constraints ever admit violation by quantum correlations. For both those reasons, it is important to classify causal scenarios into those which impose inequality constraints versus those which do not. Here we develop methods for detecting such scenarios by appealing to d separation, e separation, and incompatible supports. Many (perhaps all?) scenarios with exclusively equality constraints can be detected via a condition articulated by Henson, Lal, and Pusey (HLP). Considering all scenarios with up to four observed variables, which number in the thousands, we are able to resolve all but three causal scenarios, providing evidence that the HLP condition is, in fact, exhaustive. Published by the American Physical Society 2024