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arXiv:1405.4164 · Journal of Statistical Mechanics Theory and Experiment

Inferring hidden states in a random kinetic Ising model: replica analysis

Ludovica Bachschmid-Romano, Manfred Opper

Published Jun 19, 2014• 19 citations
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Abstract

We consider the problem of predicting the spin states in a kinetic Ising model when spin trajectories are observed for only a finite fraction of sites. In a Bayesian setting, where the probabilistic model of the spin dynamics is assumed to be known, the optimal prediction can be computed from the conditional (posterior) distribution of unobserved spins given the observed ones. Using the replica method, we compute the error of the Bayes optimal predictor for parallel discrete time dynamics in a fully connected spin system with non-symmetric random couplings. The results, exact in the thermodynamic limit, agree very well with simulations of finite spin systems.

DOI
10.1088/1742-5468/2014/06/p06013

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We consider the problem of predicting the spin states in a kinetic Ising model when spin trajectories are observed for only a finite fraction of sites. In a Bayesian setting, where the probabilistic model of the spin dynamics is assumed to be known, the optimal prediction can be computed from the conditional (posterior) distribution of unobserved spins given the observed ones. Using the replica method, we compute the error of the Bayes optimal predictor for parallel discrete time dynamics in a fully connected spin system with non-symmetric random couplings. The results, exact in the thermodynamic limit, agree very well with simulations of finite spin systems.
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The presence of a random magnetic field in ferromagnetic systems leads, in the broken phase, to an anomalous convergence of some thermodynamic quantities to their asymptotic limits. Here we show a general method, based on the replica trick, to compute analytically the finite size correction to the average free energy. We apply this method to two mean field Ising models, fully connected and random regular graphs, and compare the results to exact numerical algorithms. We argue that this behaviour is present in finite dimensional models as well.
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We present an alternate method to close the master equation representing the continuous time dynamics of interacting Ising spins. The method makes use of the theory of random point processes to derive a master equation for local conditional probabilities. We analytically test our solution studying two known cases, the dynamics of the mean-field ferromagnet and the dynamics of the one-dimensional Ising system. We present numerical results comparing our predictions with Monte Carlo simulations in three different models on random graphs with finite connectivity: the Ising ferromagnet, the random field Ising model, and the Viana-Bray spin-glass model.
We study a novel variational approach to solve the dynamics of Ising-like discrete spin systems. The equations are derived under mean-field approximations based on the cluster variational method. Comparison with the actual Glauber dynamics of models defined on Erdos-R\\'enyi random graphs show that some of these approximations are extremely accurate, both at equilibrium and in the off-equilibrium regime, providing the same result of the Monte Carlo simulation in a much shorter time. The models studied are the ferromagnetic kinetic Ising model (both with symmetric and partially asymmetric interactions), the random field Ising model and the Viana-Bray model. Only for the latter model we find some small discrepancies in the very low temperature phase, probably due to the existence of a large number of metastable states.